Domino's Pizza, Inc. · DPZ · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
DPZ Q1 2026: U.S. comps of 0.9% miss, FY outlook trimmed, shares fall ~9%
Domino's Q1 2026 (fiscal Q1 FY2026) was soft: U.S. same-store sales grew 0.9%, below internal expectations, while EPS of $4.13 missed consensus of $4.27 and revenue of $1.15B slightly missed $1.16B. Management lowered full-year comp guidance to low-single-digit growth but reaffirmed the 3% FY U.S. same-store-sales target, attributing the shortfall to macro pressure and aggressive competitor promotions. The stock fell about 9% on the session at roughly five times normal volume and drifted further lower. The bull case rests on H2 product innovation, the new AI-driven app and DomOS orchestration, continued store expansion, and buybacks and dividends; the bear case centers on macro softness, gas and commodity costs, value-driven competition, and DPE's international drag. Shares traded near $290.23 versus a consensus target of $375.20 (range $315-$480).
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensusMarket reaction
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the strong Q4 2025 report - which featured 8% operating profit growth, double-digit net store growth, a 15% dividend increase and an $80M buyback under a maintained guidance tone - Q1 2026 marks a clear softening. U.S. same-store sales slowed to 0.9%, full-year comp guidance was lowered to low-single-digit growth, and EPS and revenue both missed consensus. The market reaction was sharply negative: DPZ fell about 9% on the report session versus a +0.2% SPY move, followed by further drift. The stable element was the reaffirmed 3% FY U.S. same-store-sales target.
Guidance delta
Full-year U.S. same-store sales guidance was lowered to low-single-digit growth on the Q1 2026 call, while management reaffirmed the 3% FY U.S. same-store-sales target and the 6% global retail-sales-growth ambition from Q4 2025. Reported Q1 results missed both EPS ($4.13 vs $4.27 estimated, -3.3%) and revenue ($1.15B vs $1.16B estimated, -1.0%). Capex outlook was not mentioned on the call. No explicit Q2 numeric guidance appears in the supplied analysis, so forward figures beyond these were not used.
Key takeaways
- Q1 U.S. same-store sales grew only 0.9%, below internal expectations due to macro pressure and aggressive competitor promotions
- Full-year comps outlook was revised to low-single-digit growth; the 3% FY U.S. same-store-sales target was reaffirmed unchanged
- EPS of $4.13 and revenue of $1.15B missed consensus of $4.27 and $1.16B
- Shares fell about 9% on the report session at roughly 5x normal volume, then drifted about 7% lower
- New AI-powerered app, upgraded pizza tracker and DomOS orchestration are positioned to drive speed, accuracy and loyalty
Management priorities
- Accelerate pizza-centric product innovation in the second half of 2026
- Adjust the marketing calendar and media plan to counteract macro headwinds
- Expand carryout share and enhance the customer experience via the new app
- Maintain aggressive franchisee support and store expansion targets
- Continue disciplined share repurchases and dividend increases
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 7, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2025 |
| TD Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 29, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 29, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 2, 2025 |
| Stephens& Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 25, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Gordon Haskett | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 16, 2024 |
| Northcoast Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 13, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 28, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 24, 2023 |
| MKM Partners | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 29, 2022 |
| CFRA | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2020 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 18, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2020 |
| Maxim Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 17, 2020 |
| Kalinowski Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 3, 2019 |
| Kalinowski | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 3, 2019 |
| OTR Global | Mixed | Positive | Downgrade | Jul 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 22, 2018 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 29, 2017 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Sector Weight | Upgrade | Jan 20, 2017 |
| Miller Tabak | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 5, 2014 |
| Oriel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 3, 2013 |
| Numis Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 3, 2013 |
| Sidoti & Co. | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 10, 2013 |
| Feltl & Co. | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 16, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $288.35. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guggenheim | Gregory Francfort | $325 | $297.12 | +12.7% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $353 | $350.95 | +22.4% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $420 | $333.67 | +45.7% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $325 | $310.87 | +12.7% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $309.85 | +28.3% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $302.35 | +21.4% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Dennis Geiger | $375 | $304.18 | +30.1% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Logan Reich | $325 | $282.28 | +12.7% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $295.11 | +21.4% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $425 | $336.34 | +47.4% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $336.49 | +37.0% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Logan Reich | $350 | $335.3 | +21.4% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $420 | $335.3 | +45.7% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $390 | $335.3 | +35.3% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $335.3 | +21.4% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $430 | $335.3 | +49.1% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Chris O'Cull | $400 | $335.3 | +38.7% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $315 | $334.98 | +9.2% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Tarantino | $400 | $334.74 | +38.7% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $480 | $368.13 | +66.5% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $369.17 | +38.7% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Dennis Geiger | $480 | $369.17 | +66.5% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Danilo Gargiulo | $470 | $412.42 | +63.0% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $510 | $411.07 | +76.9% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| William Blair | Analyst unavailable | $540 | $398.5 | +87.3% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $382.99 | +73.4% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| UBS | Dennis Geiger | $500 | $382.67 | +73.4% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $413.87 | +56.1% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $430 | $398.92 | +49.1% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | David Palmer | $490 | $406.52 | +69.9% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Chris O'Cull | $485 | $406.5 | +68.2% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $406.5 | +28.3% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Hovde Group | Analyst unavailable | $460 | $425.28 | +59.5% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Danilo Gargiulo | $490 | $425.05 | +69.9% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Brian Mullan | $445 | $408.6 | +54.3% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $412.7 | +73.4% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Logan Reich | $450 | $419.87 | +56.1% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $455 | $406.37 | +57.8% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Brian Mullan | $443 | $405.33 | +53.6% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $411.43 | +56.1% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $405 | $411.43 | +40.5% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $535 | $411.43 | +85.5% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| UBS | Dennis Geiger | $540 | $476.72 | +87.3% | Jul 22, 2025 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $530 | $490.64 | +83.8% | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Tarantino | $535 | $485.88 | +85.5% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Alton Stump | $559 | $456.62 | +93.9% | Nov 8, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $480 | $420.99 | +66.5% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Danilo Gargiulo | $440 | $429.67 | +52.6% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $500 | $427.36 | +73.4% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Harbour | $510 | $408.75 | +76.9% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Brian Mullan | $422 | $408.75 | +46.3% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Stephens | Jim Salera | $420 | $429.15 | +45.7% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $420 | $408.75 | +45.7% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Chris O'Cull | $470 | $408.75 | +63.0% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Teddy Farley | $515 | $410.46 | +78.6% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Nick Setyan | $470 | $413.4 | +63.0% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Brian Mullan | $429 | $409.98 | +48.8% | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Palmer | $480 | $425.31 | +66.5% | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Sara Senatore | $582 | $420.89 | +101.8% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $510 | $405.74 | +76.9% | Sep 11, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Brian Bittner | $490 | $410.26 | +69.9% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Lauren Silberman | $500 | $404.17 | +73.4% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Harbour | $515 | $404.17 | +78.6% | Jul 21, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $525 | $404.17 | +82.1% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Alton Stump | $419 | $404.17 | +45.3% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Chris O'Cull | $480 | $409.11 | +66.5% | Jul 18, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Danilo Gargiulo | $510 | $491.48 | +76.9% | Jul 14, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Tarantino | $580 | $493.73 | +101.1% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $610 | $532.16 | +111.5% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Christine Cho | $612 | $531.4 | +112.2% | Jun 13, 2024 |
| UBS | Dennis Geiger | $600 | $523.4 | +108.1% | Jun 10, 2024 |
| DNB Markets | Andrew Charles | $580 | $531.66 | +101.1% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Stephens | Jim Salera | $513 | $533.62 | +77.9% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $525 | $529.27 | +82.1% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| HSBC | Meredith Jensen | $583 | $529.27 | +102.2% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Tarantino | $530 | $529.27 | +83.8% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Christopher Carril | $575 | $527.13 | +99.4% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $575 | $527.13 | +99.4% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alexander Slagle | $512 | $527.13 | +77.6% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| BTIG | Peter Saleh | $580 | $527.13 | +101.1% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Chris O'Cull | $565 | $521.71 | +95.9% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Jon Tower | $475 | $471.28 | +64.7% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Andy Barish | $480 | $488.1 | +66.5% | Apr 16, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Chris O'Cull | $550 | $506.83 | +90.7% | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $580 | $482.86 | +101.1% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| BTIG | Peter Saleh | $515 | $442.79 | +78.6% | Mar 18, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | John Ivankoe | $430 | $445.34 | +49.1% | Feb 27, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $530 | $459 | +83.8% | Feb 27, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Danilo Gargiulo | $370 | $410.14 | +28.3% | Jan 9, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Harbour | $455 | $394.9 | +57.8% | Dec 8, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Harbour | $435 | $346.81 | +50.9% | Oct 13, 2023 |
| Wedbush | Nick Setyan | $445 | $351.81 | +54.3% | Oct 13, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Jon Tower | $398 | $356.42 | +38.0% | Oct 10, 2023 |
| Oppenheimer | Brian Bittner | $450 | $379.22 | +56.1% | Sep 26, 2023 |
| Stephens | Joshua Long | $365 | $385.5 | +26.6% | Jul 24, 2023 |
| Stephens | Joshua Long | $300 | $314.38 | +4.0% | Mar 24, 2023 |
| Bernstein | Danilo Gargiulo | $334 | $297.42 | +15.8% | Feb 24, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $299 | $344.39 | +3.7% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $441 | $383.06 | +52.9% | Nov 30, 2022 |
| Stephens | Joshua Long | $400 | $318.65 | +38.7% | Oct 14, 2022 |
| Stephens | Joshua Long | $335 | $333.26 | +16.2% | Oct 13, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | John Ivankoe | $320 | $301.76 | +11.0% | Oct 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Lauren Silberman | $375 | $307.82 | +30.1% | Oct 10, 2022 |
| UBS | Dennis Geiger | $385 | $316.44 | +33.5% | Oct 4, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Brian Bittner | $415 | $310.2 | +43.9% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $430 | $320.14 | +49.1% | Sep 23, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Brian Bittner | $445 | $395.48 | +54.3% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Mullan | $383 | $391.49 | +32.8% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Lauren Silberman | $400 | $338 | +38.7% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Analyst unavailable | $405 | $343.78 | +40.5% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $398 | $343.98 | +38.0% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $440 | $342.2 | +52.6% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $424 | $353.88 | +47.0% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $430 | $353.88 | +49.1% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Nick Setyan | $430 | $338 | +49.1% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $400 | $353.88 | +38.7% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Mullan | $380 | $353.88 | +31.8% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $400 | $338 | +38.7% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Gordon Haskett Capital Corporation | Jeff Farmer | $325 | $338 | +12.7% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Brett Levy | $405 | $338 | +40.5% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Christopher Carril | $440 | $338 | +52.6% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Brett Levy | $440 | $378.16 | +52.6% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $355 | $378.83 | +23.1% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| UBS | Dennis Geiger | $430 | $378.83 | +49.1% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $440 | $391 | +52.6% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Jon Tower | $487 | $387.24 | +68.9% | Apr 17, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Andrew Charles | $390 | $394.79 | +35.3% | Apr 8, 2022 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Alton Stump | $413 | $405.47 | +43.2% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Jeffrey Bernstein | $410 | $402.67 | +42.2% | Mar 3, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Sara Senatore | $550 | $402.67 | +90.7% | Mar 3, 2022 |
| Gordon Haskett Capital Corporation | Jeff Farmer | $460 | $422.04 | +59.5% | Mar 2, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Nick Setyan | $475 | $422.04 | +64.7% | Mar 2, 2022 |
| Guggenheim | Gregory Francfort | $445 | $422.04 | +54.3% | Mar 2, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Brett Levy | $490 | $422.04 | +69.9% | Mar 2, 2022 |
| Stephens | James Rutherford | $425 | $422.04 | +47.4% | Mar 2, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Mullan | $440 | $430.98 | +52.6% | Mar 1, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Chris O`Cull | $425 | $430.98 | +47.4% | Mar 1, 2022 |
| UBS | Dennis Geiger | $475 | $430.98 | +64.7% | Feb 28, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Alexander Slagle | $500 | $526.88 | +73.4% | Dec 17, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Jon Tower | $501 | $452.82 | +73.7% | Oct 15, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jared Garber | $450 | $417.47 | +56.1% | May 25, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationDomino's Pizza, Inc. operates as a leading international and domestic purveyor of pizza, managing its extensive operations through three distinct segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply Chain. The company is primarily recognized for its Domino's-branded pizzas, which are distributed via a vast network of both corporate-owned and independently franchised outlets. Beyond its flagship product, the menu also encompasses a variety of other offerings, including oven-baked sandwiches, pasta dishes, boneless and winged chicken, various bread and dip accompaniments, desserts, and soft drink beverages. As of January 2, 2022, the enterprise boasted approximately 18,800 locations spanning 90 global markets. Established in 1960, Domino's Pizza, Inc. is headquartered in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Historical context
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T17:31:06.968381+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T17:31:06.965278+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.