Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold47 ratings
Bullish2451.1%
Neutral1838.3%
Bearish510.6%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Dollar Tree, Inc. · DLTR · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Dollar Tree Q1 FY2026: EPS Beats by 14%, Full-Year Guidance Raised
Dollar Tree's single-banner strategy post-Family Dollar divestiture is gaining momentum. Q1 FY2026 delivered 7.2% sales growth and 38% EPS growth, driven by multi-price assortment expansion, lower shrink, and favorable freight. Management raised full-year EPS guidance by $0.20 at both ends despite tariff and fuel headwinds, signaling confidence in the operating model. Share repurchases of $1.7B reduced the share count by approximately 8%, amplifying per-share growth. With roughly 85% of sales at $2 or below, the deep-value positioning resonates in a value-seeking consumer environment. Inventory declining 9% year-over-year while sales grew underscores improving operational discipline.
Reported Before market openNASDAQConsumer Defensive
$24.78B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationDollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) operates as a leading discount retailer, managing its extensive operations through two principal divisions: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment distinguishes itself by offering all its merchandise at a consistent price of $1.25. Its product range is broad, encompassing essential consumables like confectionery, various food items, health and personal care products, household cleaning chemicals, paper goods, and frozen or refrigerated foods. Beyond these daily necessities, customers can find a diverse selection of general merchandise, including toys, resilient housewares, gifts, stationery, party essentials, greeting cards, softline apparel, and arts and crafts supplies. The segment also prominently features seasonal items for holidays such as Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.74
Consensus $2
EPS surprise
+13.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.98B
Consensus $4.96B
Revenue surprise
+0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$128.57Current
$64Low
$125.14Average
$200.9High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raymond James | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Jul 8, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 29, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 29, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | May 29, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 27, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 22, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 17, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Mar 17, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Gordon Haskett | Reduce | Hold | Downgrade | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 5, 2024 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Nov 7, 2024 | |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Mar 4, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 25, 2023 |
| OTR Global | Mixed | Positive | Downgrade | Aug 18, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 26, 2023 |
| R5 Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 15, 2021 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 28, 2021 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 28, 2020 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Nov 29, 2019 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 1, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 1, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 26, 2018 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 8, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2018 |
| Johnson Rice | Buy | Accumulate | Maintain | Apr 24, 2017 |
| Cleveland Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 4, 2016 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 11, 2015 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 2, 2015 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 26, 2015 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 26, 2015 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 26, 2015 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 21, 2014 |
| Northcoast Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 24, 2014 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 29, 2014 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 2, 2013 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 24, 2013 |
| Feltl & Co. | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | May 17, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $128.57. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $122.65 | -2.8% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Bobby Griffin | $140 | $122.65 | +8.9% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Gordon Haskett Capital Corporation | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $123.7 | -2.8% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Gordon Haskett Capital Corporation | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $113.14 | -10.6% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $116.44 | -33.9% | May 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $145 | $113.8 | +12.8% | May 29, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $113 | +5.0% | May 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $124 | $113.17 | -3.6% | May 28, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $93.85 | -16.8% | May 27, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $94.98 | -21.4% | May 26, 2026 |
| Barclays | Seth Sigman | $131 | $94.98 | +1.9% | May 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $132 | $95.88 | +2.7% | May 22, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $92.52 | +8.9% | May 18, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $90.02 | -10.6% | May 12, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Montani | $150 | $108.62 | +16.7% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $142 | $114.5 | +10.4% | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Sam Hudson | $165 | $126.06 | +28.3% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Kelly Bania | $95 | $128.43 | -26.1% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Montani | $160 | $117.22 | +24.4% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $87 | $131.2 | -32.3% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $156 | $141.21 | +21.3% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $146 | $139.68 | +13.6% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Krisztine Katai | $126 | $131.56 | -2.0% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Seth Sigman | $149 | $131.56 | +15.9% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $123 | $127.7 | -4.3% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Edward Kelly | $145 | $126.9 | +12.8% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Telsey Advisory | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $127.94 | +16.7% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $149 | $129.58 | +15.9% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Barclays | Seth Sigman | $136 | $120.33 | +5.8% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $130 | $118.28 | +1.1% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Telsey Advisory | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $118.04 | +5.0% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $112.92 | -6.7% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $115.29 | -15.2% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $138 | $112.92 | +7.3% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $112.92 | +1.1% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Peter Keith | $114 | $112.92 | -11.3% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $112.92 | -2.8% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $112.92 | -41.7% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $136 | $114.05 | +5.8% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $97.93 | -22.2% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $133 | $96.44 | +3.4% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| New Street | Zhihan Ma | $103 | $95.97 | -19.9% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $89.02 | -10.6% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $87.68 | -45.6% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $89.98 | -22.2% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $100.25 | -18.3% | Sep 4, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Peter Keith | $108 | $102.03 | -16.0% | Sep 4, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $129 | $102.03 | +0.3% | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Gordon Haskett Capital Corporation | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $102.03 | -26.1% | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $130 | $112.5 | +1.1% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $111.79 | +8.9% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Peter Keith | $112 | $112.82 | -12.9% | Aug 19, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Edward Kelly | $105 | $91.24 | -18.3% | Jun 2, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $89 | $83.79 | -30.8% | May 6, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Zhihan Ma | $82 | $83.95 | -36.2% | May 5, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | John Heinbockel | $100 | $84.82 | -22.2% | May 5, 2025 |
| Telsey Advisory | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $76.95 | -36.2% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $84 | $76.95 | -34.7% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $76 | $67.14 | -40.9% | Mar 25, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Kelly Bania | $70 | $72.56 | -45.6% | Dec 5, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Anthony Chukumba | $75 | $72.14 | -41.7% | Dec 5, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $83 | $72.23 | -35.4% | Dec 5, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Peter Keith | $72 | $72.23 | -44.0% | Dec 5, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $75 | $66.53 | -41.7% | Nov 5, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Anthony Chukumba | $65 | $73.5 | -49.4% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Guggenheim | John Heinbockel | $60 | $34.24 | -53.3% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Kelly Bania | $68 | $68.47 | -47.1% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $80 | $63.56 | -37.8% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Paul Lejuez | $64 | $62.71 | -50.2% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Peter Keith | $67 | $63.56 | -47.9% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Kelly Bania | $68 | $63.56 | -47.1% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Bradley Thomas | $84 | $68.47 | -34.7% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| Barclays | Seth Sigman | $81 | $62.56 | -37.0% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| CFRA | Arun Sundaram | $74 | $63.56 | -42.4% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $79 | $63.56 | -38.6% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $60 | $32.49 | -53.3% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Kelly Bania | $65 | $32.49 | -49.4% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $155 | $105.21 | +20.6% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Krisztina Katai | $149 | $114.65 | +15.9% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Kelly Bania | $145 | $114.52 | +12.8% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $140 | $114.38 | +8.9% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Peter Keith | $143 | $114.38 | +11.2% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Montani | $136 | $114.38 | +5.8% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Bradley Thomas | $145 | $114.42 | +12.8% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Edward Kelly | $160 | $114.38 | +24.4% | Jun 5, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $155 | $114.38 | +20.6% | Jun 5, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Krisztina Katai | $151 | $114.68 | +17.4% | May 21, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Bradley Thomas | $150 | $118.56 | +16.7% | May 1, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Peter Keith | $168 | $125.23 | +30.7% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Kelly Bania | $160 | $125.23 | +24.4% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Michael Montani | $144 | $125.23 | +12.0% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Krisztina Katai | $155 | $125.23 | +20.6% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kate McShane | $152 | $125.23 | +18.2% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Kelly Bania | $170 | $105.47 | +32.2% | Oct 6, 2023 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $162 | $144.07 | +26.0% | Jun 22, 2023 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $165 | $160.08 | +28.3% | May 19, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $150.37 | +12.8% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $139.42 | +16.7% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $177 | $152.37 | +37.7% | Nov 23, 2022 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $170 | $152.37 | +32.2% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $178 | $167.36 | +38.4% | Jul 9, 2022 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $160 | $130.2 | +24.4% | May 24, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $147 | $127.88 | +14.3% | May 22, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Peter Keith | $181 | $152.08 | +40.8% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| R5 Capital | Scott Mushkin | $200.9 | $139.92 | +56.3% | Mar 2, 2022 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $175 | $142.08 | +36.1% | Feb 28, 2022 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joe Feldman | $180 | $136.2 | +40.0% | Feb 23, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Matthew Boss | $181 | $139.79 | +40.8% | Feb 22, 2022 |
| Gordon Haskett Capital Corporation | Charles Grom | $155 | $137.93 | +20.6% | Feb 10, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kate McShane | $150 | $141.35 | +16.7% | Nov 29, 2021 |
| Barclays | Karen Short | $140 | $146.61 | +8.9% | Nov 24, 2021 |
| Jefferies | Corey Tarlowe | $100 | $100.51 | -22.2% | Sep 29, 2021 |
Track every rating change on DLTR the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+17.9%
Event window
SPY move
+0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
+17.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+9.6%
Up to 20 sessions
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What changed
From Q4 FY2025 to Q1 FY2026: (1) Revenue growth moderated from 9% to 7.2% year-over-year but still topped consensus. (2) Gross margin benefited from significant shrink improvement and favorable freight, adding 120 basis points, partially offset by higher fuel costs. (3) Full-year EPS guidance raised from $6.50-$6.90 to $6.70-$7.10; sales range held at $20.5-$20.7B. (4) Inventory declined 9% year-over-year, a data point not flagged in the prior quarter. (5) Helium supply tightness emerged as a new operational risk for seasonal products. (6) Share repurchases accelerated, returning $1.7B and cutting share count by roughly 8%. (7) Guidance sentiment shifted from maintained to raised.
Guidance delta
Prior FY2026 guidance: Net sales $20.5-$20.7B, EPS $6.50-$6.90. Updated FY2026 guidance: Net sales $20.5-$20.7B (unchanged), EPS $6.70-$7.10 (raised $0.20 at both ends). Guidance sentiment shifted from maintained to raised.
Key takeaways
- Q1 net sales grew 7.2% to $5.0B and adjusted EPS rose 38% to $1.74, beating the high end of outlook.
- Multi-price expansion lifted average ticket by 4.5%, contributing to margin expansion.
- Shrink improved significantly and freight costs were favorable, adding 120 bps to gross margin.
- Full-year EPS guidance raised to $6.70-$7.10 from $6.50-$6.90; sales range unchanged at $20.5-$20.7B.
- Share repurchases returned $1.7B to shareholders, reducing share count by approximately 8%.
Management priorities
- Further rollout of multi-price items and expansion in everyday categories.
- Scale advanced, data-driven marketing capabilities for targeted customer engagement.
- Accelerate store refreshes and gold-store standard compliance.
- Reinvest any future tariff refunds into the business.
- Maintain share repurchase program and target continued free cash flow generation.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-29T19:19:01.462948+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T21:01:25.602109+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T21:01:25.599126+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.