Dollar General Corporation · DG · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

Dollar General Maintains Outlook While Expanding Store and Digital Plans

The transcript supports a cautiously constructive operating thesis: resilient demand and operational initiatives may support growth, but the next-year case depends on execution, margin delivery, and consumer resilience.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive $28.07B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $1.50
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $10.26B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +6.8% Event window
SPY move -1.3% Same window
Abnormal move +8.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +9.0% Up to 20 sessions
DGSPY benchmark

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What drove DG's +6.8% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in DG's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for DG after FY2024 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the company moved from a broad FY2025 plan to a reported Q4 review: FY sales exceeded $40 billion, portfolio optimization closed 96 Dollar General stores and 51 pOpshelf locations, and management maintained its 2025 outlook while detailing digital-delivery and remodel priorities.

Guidance delta

Management maintained guidance and outlined 2025 sales growth of 3.4–4.4% with EPS of $5.10–$5.80.

Key takeaways

  • Management described Back to Basics, inventory optimization, and store actions as drivers of comparable-sales improvement.
  • The 2025 plan combines new stores, Project Elevate and Project Renovate remodels, and broader digital delivery.
  • The longer-term case depends on margin expansion while serving a pressured low-income consumer.
  • The supplied analysis does not include reported EPS or revenue actuals versus consensus.

Management priorities

  • Execute the 2025 real-estate program and remodel initiatives.
  • Expand digital delivery and the DG Media Network.
  • Improve inventory availability, reduce shrink, and modernize finance and HR systems.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
DG EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '25 estimate $1.57 Q1 '25 actual $1.65, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1.79 Q2 '25 actual $1.70, miss Q1 '26 estimate $1.48 Q1 '26 actual $1.78, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.58 Q2 '26 actual $1.86, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.94 Q3 '26 actual $1.28, beat Q4 '26 estimate $1.66 Q4 '26 actual $1.93, beat Q1 '27 estimate $1.89 Q1 '27 actual $2.00, beat Q2 '27 estimate $2.01 Q2 '27 actual $2.48, beat Q3 '27 estimate $1.38 Q4 '27 estimate $2.00
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy50 ratings
Bullish2856.0%
Neutral2040.0%
Bearish24.0%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$126.54Current
$80Low
$149.89Average
$273High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 12, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Gordon Haskett Buy HoldUpgradeOct 6, 2026
HSBC Buy HoldUpgradeSep 24, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 8, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainSep 4, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainAug 31, 2026
Show 46 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $126.54. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$160$120.56 +26.4%Sep 24, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$135$123.4 +6.7%Aug 28, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$145$125.91 +14.6%Aug 28, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$123$125.91 -2.8%Aug 28, 2026
Goldman SachsKate McShane$141$125.91 +11.4%Aug 28, 2026
See 123 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Dollar General Corporation is a prominent discount retail chain that offers a wide array of merchandise across the southern, southwestern, Midwestern, and eastern regions of the United States. Its extensive product assortment primarily features consumable items. This includes household essentials such as paper products, cleaning supplies, and laundry detergents; a wide array of food options, ranging from shelf-stable groceries like cereals, pasta, canned goods, condiments, and baking ingredients, to fresh and refrigerated perishables such as milk, eggs, bread, and frozen foods, as well as alcoholic beverages like beer and wine. The selection further encompasses popular snacks (candies, cookies, crackers, and carbonated drinks), health and beauty aids (over-the-counter medications, personal care items, cosmetics, dental, and foot care products), pet food and supplies, and tobacco products.…

Historical context

All DG earnings
+2.5%FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-3.3%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026-6.1%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Consumer Defensive peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
PEP PepsiCo, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +2.2% +3.7% PepsiCo: International Growth Offsets U.S. Soft-Drink and Margin Pressure
STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 +5.4% +2.4% Constellation Brands beats expectations and maintains FY27 EPS guidance
LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 +27.8% +7.5% Lamb Weston raises FY2027 outlook as North America volume growth continues
MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +13.9% -4.9% McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft
CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +44.4% -4.9% Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +3.2% +2.9% Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-27T00:01:03.097539+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-12T20:10:45.166771+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-12T20:10:45.163993+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-12. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.