Dell Technologies Inc. · DELL · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2024

Dell’s AI server growth accelerates as margin and supply risks remain

The supplied analysis supports a constructive growth case for Dell centered on AI servers, storage, and an anticipated PC refresh, but the evidence is conditional: profitability, supply availability, and recovery in traditional businesses remain important tests.

Reported After market closeNYSETechnology $287.09B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.20 Consensus $1.73
EPS surprise +27.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $22.32B Consensus $22.17B
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +31.6% Event window
SPY move +0.9% Same window
Abnormal move +30.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 13.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -4.0% Up to 20 sessions
DELLSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, AI-server momentum strengthened: orders increased nearly 40% sequentially, shipments reached $800 million, and backlog nearly doubled to $2.9 billion. Management also broadened the AI roadmap across storage, PCs, services, and financing while maintaining guidance.

Guidance delta

Management’s FY25 outlook calls for $91–95 billion of revenue, mid-teens ISG growth, low-single-digit CSG growth, and about 100 basis points of gross-margin pressure.

Key takeaways

  • AI-optimized server orders rose nearly 40% sequentially; backlog nearly doubled to $2.9 billion.
  • Management highlighted AI storage, AI-enabled PCs, services, and financing as complementary growth opportunities.
  • The outlook pairs expected growth with lower gross margin and continued uncertainty in traditional servers and PCs.

Management priorities

  • Scale AI-optimized server and next-generation GPU offerings.
  • Expand AI-focused storage, services, consulting, and financing.
  • Maintain disciplined costs and continue shareholder returns.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
DELL REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $23B Q3 '24 actual $22B, miss Q4 '24 estimate $22B Q4 '24 actual $22B, beat Q1 '25 estimate $22B Q1 '25 actual $22B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $24B Q2 '25 actual $25B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $29B Q2 '26 actual $30B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $27B Q3 '26 actual $27B, miss Q4 '26 estimate $32B Q4 '26 actual $33B, beat Q1 '27 estimate $36B Q1 '27 actual $44B, beat Q2 '27 estimate $45B Q3 '27 estimate $41B Q4 '27 estimate $42B

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish2453.3%
Neutral1942.2%
Bearish24.5%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$455.44Current
$47.5Low
$384.42Average
$735High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 19, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Barclays Equal Weight OverweightDowngradeOct 14, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 6, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainSep 29, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 21, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 9, 2026
Show 40 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $455.44. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$574$572.63 +26.0%Oct 14, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesVijay Rakesh$650$552.06 +42.7%Oct 6, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$511$570.04 +12.2%Sep 21, 2026
RBC CapitalDavid Paige$640$506.68 +40.5%Sep 10, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$650$533.27 +42.7%Sep 9, 2026
See 107 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Dell Technologies Inc. is a worldwide technology leader that designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and provides support for a broad spectrum of information technology (IT) solutions, products, and services. The company's business activities are structured into three primary segments: the Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), the Client Solutions Group (CSG), and VMware. The ISG division focuses on delivering enterprise-grade offerings, including both traditional and next-generation storage solutions, alongside various server configurations such as rack, blade, tower, and hyperscale models. This segment also provides networking products and related services aimed at helping corporate clients modernize their IT infrastructure, enrich end-user experiences, and accelerate critical business applications and processes. Complementary software, peripherals, and extensive support services—encompassing deployment, configuration, and extended warranties—are also part of its portfolio.…

Historical context

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-11T06:39:45.180704+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-19T22:00:42.154764+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-19T22:00:42.151985+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-19. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.