Dell Technologies Inc. · DELL · FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Dell posts record FY26 as AI orders hit $64.1B; stock jumps ~22%

Dell's FY2026 results support the view that AI-infrastructure demand is durable and still scaling: a record $43 billion AI backlog and $64.1 billion in orders underpinned a ~22% rally after the report. The bull case rests on AI revenue reaching $50 billion in FY2027 with mid-single-digit margin expansion, while the key risk is whether rising memory costs and tight supply erode server margins before price increases fully pass through.

Reported After market closeNYSETechnology $356.30B market cap
90quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.89 Consensus $3.53
EPS surprise +10.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $33.38B Consensus $31.67B
Revenue surprise +5.4% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +21.9% Event window
SPY move -0.5% Same window
Abnormal move +22.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 4.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +16.0% Up to 20 sessions
DELLSPY benchmark

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What changed

Dell beat Q4 estimates (EPS $3.89 vs $3.53 expected, revenue $33.4B vs $31.7B expected), guided FY2027 revenue up ~23% with AI revenue targeted at $50B, and disclosed a record $43B AI backlog. The stock rose ~22% from the report close to the next session's close, roughly 4x normal volume.

Guidance delta

raised: Management raised FY2027 guidance to roughly 23% revenue growth and 25% EPS growth, with mid-single-digit margin expansion, low-single-digit operating expense growth, and AI revenue targeted at $50 billion.

Key takeaways

  • FY 2026 delivered record $113.5 billion revenue (+19%) and EPS of $10.30 (+27%), with cash flow over $11 billion.
  • AI is the primary growth engine: $64.1 billion in orders and a record $43 billion backlog, with FY 2027 AI revenue guided to $50 billion.
  • Shareholder returns were strong: $7.5 billion returned, dividend up 20%, and share-repurchase authorization increased by $10 billion.
  • FY 2027 guidance calls for 23% revenue growth, 25% EPS growth, mid-single-digit margin expansion, and low-single-digit operating expense growth.
  • Memory cost pressure (DRAM spot up ~5.5x, NAND up ~4x over six months) is being managed through dynamic pricing, shorter quote validity, and supply leverage.

Management priorities

  • Scale AI shipments to $13 billion in Q1 and $50 billion in AI revenue for FY 2027.
  • Maintain disciplined capex and operating expense management while investing in supply-chain resilience.
  • Preserve dividend growth (20% increase) and execute the expanded $10 billion share-repurchase program.
  • Accelerate the transition to the Vera Rubin architecture, with production slated for H2 FY 2027.
  • Launch the Lightning parallel-file solution with general availability in H1 FY 2027.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
DELL EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $1.47 Q3 '24 actual $1.88, beat Q4 '24 estimate $1.73 Q4 '24 actual $2.20, beat Q1 '25 estimate $1.26 Q1 '25 actual $1.27, match Q2 '25 estimate $1.70 Q2 '25 actual $1.89, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.29 Q2 '26 actual $2.32, beat Q3 '26 estimate $2.47 Q3 '26 actual $2.59, beat Q4 '26 estimate $3.53 Q4 '26 actual $3.89, beat Q1 '27 estimate $2.96 Q1 '27 actual $4.86, beat Q2 '27 estimate $4.89 Q3 '27 estimate $4.46 Q4 '27 estimate $4.77

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish2555.6%
Neutral1840.0%
Bearish24.4%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$565.13Current
$47.5Low
$381.51Average
$735High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 21, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 9, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 2, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainSep 2, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainSep 2, 2026
Show 40 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $565.13. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$511$570.04 -9.6%Sep 21, 2026
RBC CapitalDavid Paige$640$506.68 +13.2%Sep 10, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$650$533.27 +15.0%Sep 9, 2026
Deutsche BankGianmarco Conti$520$506.36 -8.0%Sep 3, 2026
US Capital AdvisorsAnalyst unavailable$625$492 +10.6%Sep 2, 2026
See 105 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Dell Technologies Inc. is a worldwide technology leader that designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and provides support for a broad spectrum of information technology (IT) solutions, products, and services. The company's business activities are structured into three primary segments: the Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), the Client Solutions Group (CSG), and VMware. The ISG division focuses on delivering enterprise-grade offerings, including both traditional and next-generation storage solutions, alongside various server configurations such as rack, blade, tower, and hyperscale models. This segment also provides networking products and related services aimed at helping corporate clients modernize their IT infrastructure, enrich end-user experiences, and accelerate critical business applications and processes. Complementary software, peripherals, and extensive support services—encompassing deployment, configuration, and extended warranties—are also part of its portfolio.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T15:31:06.024929+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T15:31:06.021737+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.