Costco Wholesale Corporation · COST · FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026

Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate

The current analysis supports a constructive view of Costco’s growth durability: warehouse expansion, membership, ancillary businesses, and digital sales are reinforcing demand. The main counterweights are the lack of formal guidance in the supplied analysis, tariff-refund uncertainty, inflation, and the need to sustain membership growth as the base expands.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Defensive $409.30B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $6.75 Consensus $6.54
EPS surprise +3.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $93.87B Consensus $94.97B
Revenue surprise -1.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +2.9% Event window
SPY move +0.5% Same window
Abnormal move +2.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +0.0% Up to 20 sessions
COSTSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis shows a larger planned warehouse pipeline, higher FY27 capital spending, national third-party delivery coverage, and continued AI-search investment. It also shifts the key risk focus toward IEEPA refund timing, memory-chip and petroleum-related inflation, supply-chain disruptions, and a higher LIFO charge.

Guidance delta

No formal guidance was provided in the supplied analysis. Management outlined a plan for 33 FY27 warehouse openings, higher FY27 capital spending, broader delivery partnerships, and continued AI-search investment.

Key takeaways

  • Q4 net sales rose 11.2% year over year and comparable sales increased 9.4%.
  • Digitally enabled sales exceeded $33 billion and grew more than 20%, while delivery partnerships became national.
  • Management plans 33 FY27 warehouse openings and higher capital spending to support warehouses and supply-chain upgrades.
  • Membership, gas, pharmacy, and travel remained central growth drivers, while tariff timing, inflation, and supply-chain risks remain.

Management priorities

  • Expand the warehouse network, including international locations.
  • Increase digital delivery coverage through Uber Eats, DoorDash, and Instacart.
  • Improve product discovery through AI-search tools.
  • Reinvest tariff refunds through member value and price reductions.
  • Develop Kirkland Signature products and expand ancillary businesses.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COST REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $59B Q2 '24 actual $58B, miss Q3 '24 estimate $58B Q3 '24 actual $59B, beat Q4 '24 estimate $80B Q4 '24 actual $80B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $86B Q4 '25 actual $86B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $67B Q1 '26 actual $67B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $69B Q2 '26 actual $70B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $70B Q3 '26 actual $71B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $95B Q4 '26 actual $94B, miss Q1 '27 estimate $74B Q2 '27 estimate $77B

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy59 ratings
Bullish3966.1%
Neutral1932.2%
Bearish11.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$922.92Previous close
$491Low
$927.5Average
$1,275High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 25, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainSep 25, 2026
Roth Capital Sell SellMaintainSep 25, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainSep 25, 2026
Raymond James Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 25, 2026
Show 54 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $922.92. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Deutsche BankKrisztina Katai$1,079$929.26 +16.9%Sep 28, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$955$919.13 +3.5%Sep 25, 2026
D.A. DavidsonAnalyst unavailable$1,040$919.5 +12.7%Sep 25, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$1,175$896.48 +27.3%Sep 25, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$1,143$896.48 +23.8%Sep 25, 2026
See 125 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Costco Wholesale Corporation, alongside its group entities, operates membership-based retail warehouses across a broad international scope, spanning the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. These outlets provide customers with an extensive array of both well-known branded and proprietary private-label products. Their vast inventory includes household staples, shelf-stable groceries, confectionery, chilled and frozen items, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and deli selections. Furthermore, the stores stock major appliances, consumer electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, garden and patio furniture, sporting goods, vehicle tires, toys, seasonal merchandise, office supplies, automotive maintenance products, postage services, event tickets, apparel, small kitchen appliances, home furnishings, domestic textiles, kitchenware, custom-order kiosks, and fine jewelry.…

Historical context

All COST earnings

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-09-29T07:07:01.582072+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-29T01:23:11.913245+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T07:10:57.709210+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T07:10:57.706464+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.