Costco Wholesale Corporation · COST · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2025

Costco FY2025: Growth Holds Up as Expansion and Digital Scale

The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating picture: membership, executive-member penetration, e-commerce and warehouse expansion remained growth drivers, while stable margins showed resilience. The key test is whether Costco can sustain renewal economics and margin discipline as tariffs, commodity costs and expansion demands increase.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Defensive $410.04B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $5.87 Consensus $5.80
EPS surprise +1.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $86.16B Consensus $86.01B
Revenue surprise +0.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -2.9% Event window
SPY move +0.6% Same window
Abnormal move -3.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +1.8% Up to 20 sessions
COSTSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, the company moved from nine warehouse openings and ten planned additions to a stated FY2026 plan of approximately 35 new warehouses, with remodels and manufacturing investments also emphasized. Digital priorities broadened to include personalization, app enhancements and executive-member Instacart benefits, while tariff, commodity and renewal-rate risks remained central concerns.

Guidance delta

Management guidance sentiment was maintained. The company outlined approximately 35 new warehouses for FY2026 and continued investment in remodels, manufacturing and digital capabilities.

Key takeaways

  • Q4 net sales grew 8% year over year and net income rose 11%, with the supplied scorecard showing a modest EPS beat and revenue slightly above estimate.
  • Membership reached 81 million; executive members grew 9% and represented 74% of worldwide sales.
  • Management plans approximately 35 new FY2026 warehouses, alongside remodels and new manufacturing facilities.
  • E-commerce sales exceeded $19.6 billion, while digital traffic rose 27% and personalization initiatives expanded.
  • Margins held steady with modest improvement despite tariff, commodity and gas-price headwinds.

Management priorities

  • Expand and remodel the warehouse footprint, including international locations.
  • Increase Kirkland Signature penetration and launch additional private-label products.
  • Advance digital capabilities, including personalization, app enhancements and passwordless sign-in.
  • Use executive-member benefits and partnerships such as Instacart to support engagement and e-commerce conversion.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COST EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $3.62 Q2 '24 actual $3.92, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3.70 Q3 '24 actual $3.78, beat Q4 '24 estimate $5.08 Q4 '24 actual $5.15, beat Q4 '25 estimate $5.80 Q4 '25 actual $5.87, beat Q1 '26 estimate $4.27 Q1 '26 actual $4.34, beat Q2 '26 estimate $4.55 Q2 '26 actual $4.58, beat Q3 '26 estimate $5.00 Q3 '26 actual $4.93, miss Q4 '26 estimate $6.54 Q4 '26 actual $6.75, beat Q1 '27 estimate $4.93 Q2 '27 estimate $5.14

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy59 ratings
Bullish3966.1%
Neutral1932.2%
Bearish11.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$910.34Current
$491Low
$927.5Average
$1,275High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Deutsche Bank Buy BuyMaintainSep 28, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainSep 28, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 25, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainSep 25, 2026
Roth Capital Sell SellMaintainSep 25, 2026
Show 54 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $910.34. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Deutsche BankKrisztina Katai$1,079$929.26 +18.5%Sep 28, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$955$919.13 +4.9%Sep 25, 2026
D.A. DavidsonAnalyst unavailable$1,040$919.5 +14.2%Sep 25, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$1,175$896.48 +29.1%Sep 25, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$1,143$896.48 +25.6%Sep 25, 2026
See 125 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Costco Wholesale Corporation, alongside its group entities, operates membership-based retail warehouses across a broad international scope, spanning the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. These outlets provide customers with an extensive array of both well-known branded and proprietary private-label products. Their vast inventory includes household staples, shelf-stable groceries, confectionery, chilled and frozen items, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and deli selections. Furthermore, the stores stock major appliances, consumer electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, garden and patio furniture, sporting goods, vehicle tires, toys, seasonal merchandise, office supplies, automotive maintenance products, postage services, event tickets, apparel, small kitchen appliances, home furnishings, domestic textiles, kitchenware, custom-order kiosks, and fine jewelry.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T20:56:09.573533+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T20:56:09.570692+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.