Costco Wholesale Corporation · COST · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2025

Costco growth remains strong as digital members and investment add risk

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view of Costco's operating trajectory: growth in sales, membership and digital activity is accompanied by stable margins, while renewal softness, cost pressures and elevated investment leave execution risks to monitor.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Defensive $397.57B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $4.34 Consensus $4.27
EPS surprise +1.6% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $67.31B Consensus $67.14B
Revenue surprise +0.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -0.0% Event window
SPY move -1.1% Same window
Abnormal move +1.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +6.5% Up to 20 sessions
COSTSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about COST FY2026 Q1

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did COST fall 0.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in COST's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for COST after FY2026 Q1 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied analysis adds evidence of AI-enabled pharmacy inventory improvements, broader personalization tools and continued digital expansion. It also highlights higher health-care costs, slight renewal-rate softness among newer digital members and elevated capex as ongoing constraints.

Guidance delta

No new guidance was provided in the supplied analysis. Management's stated plans continue to emphasize 30+ annual warehouse openings, digital investment and operational initiatives.

Key takeaways

  • The supplied analysis describes strong top-line growth supported by warehouse openings, member upgrades and digital initiatives.
  • Membership and fee income continued to expand, while renewal rates showed slight softness among newer digital members.
  • Margins held steady, but higher health-care costs and elevated capex remain important watch items.
  • AI, personalization and same-day delivery initiatives are intended to improve productivity and member engagement.

Management priorities

  • Continue opening 30+ warehouses annually, including relocations and remodels.
  • Deploy AI tools across pharmacy, gas and other ancillary businesses.
  • Expand personalization and digital wallet capabilities across web and mobile platforms.
  • Grow same-day delivery partnerships and retail media offerings.
  • Add Kirkland Signature items while expanding real-estate capacity.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COST EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $3.62 Q2 '24 actual $3.92, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3.70 Q3 '24 actual $3.78, beat Q4 '24 estimate $5.08 Q4 '24 actual $5.15, beat Q4 '25 estimate $5.80 Q4 '25 actual $5.87, beat Q1 '26 estimate $4.27 Q1 '26 actual $4.34, beat Q2 '26 estimate $4.55 Q2 '26 actual $4.58, beat Q3 '26 estimate $5.00 Q3 '26 actual $4.93, miss Q4 '26 estimate $6.54 Q4 '26 actual $6.75, beat Q1 '27 estimate $4.88 Q2 '27 estimate $5.12 Q3 '27 estimate $5.41 Q4 '27 estimate $7.14

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy59 ratings
Bullish3966.1%
Neutral1932.2%
Bearish11.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$896.48Current
$491Low
$929.45Average
$1,275High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainSep 23, 2026
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 16, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainSep 16, 2026
Freedom Broker Buy HoldUpgradeSep 8, 2026
DA Davidson Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 3, 2026
Show 54 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $896.48. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Deutsche BankKrisztina Katai$1,091$922.96 +21.7%Sep 4, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$1,144$925.41 +27.6%Sep 4, 2026
Deutsche BankKrisztina Katai$1,120$946.96 +24.9%Aug 6, 2026
RBC CapitalSteven Shemesh$1,000$916.25 +11.5%Jul 13, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesDavid Bellinger$1,100$956.32 +22.7%Jun 1, 2026
See 119 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Costco Wholesale Corporation, alongside its group entities, operates membership-based retail warehouses across a broad international scope, spanning the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. These outlets provide customers with an extensive array of both well-known branded and proprietary private-label products. Their vast inventory includes household staples, shelf-stable groceries, confectionery, chilled and frozen items, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and deli selections. Furthermore, the stores stock major appliances, consumer electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, garden and patio furniture, sporting goods, vehicle tires, toys, seasonal merchandise, office supplies, automotive maintenance products, postage services, event tickets, apparel, small kitchen appliances, home furnishings, domestic textiles, kitchenware, custom-order kiosks, and fine jewelry.…

Historical context

All COST earnings
-3.9%FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q2 2026

Consumer Defensive peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
GIS General Mills, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +4.6% +1.0% General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure
KR The Kroger Co. FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +2.8% +2.7% Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook
CPB Campbell Soup Company FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +1.1% -7.0% Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand
BF-A Brown-Forman Corporation FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +3.0% — Brown-Forman holds FY27 outlook as RTD innovation offsets barrel pressure
BF-B Brown-Forman Corporation FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 0.0% — Brown-Forman maintains FY27 outlook as innovation offsets pressure
DG Dollar General Corporation FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +23.4% +2.5% Dollar General Raises FY2026 Outlook After Strong Q2

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

Beat on EPS

Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T06:30:59.253510+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T06:30:59.250053+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.