Capital One Financial Corporation · COF · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Capital One beats on adjusted EPS in Q1; revenue dips as Brex closes

Capital One's Q1 2026 results support a thesis of earnings resilience: strong consumer and auto credit demand (auto originations +21% YoY, deposits +35% YoY) and the Discover acquisition are driving card volume and loan growth, with profitability cushioned by solid pre-provision earnings. The near-term trade-off is expense and capital pressure from integrating Discover and Brex, a slightly softer net interest margin, and a modest miss versus consensus on both EPS and revenue. Whether volume growth outpaces those integration costs over the next year is the key question.

Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services $120.62B market cap
90quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $4.42 Consensus $4.50
EPS surprise -1.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $15.23B Consensus $15.35B
Revenue surprise -0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -1.5% Event window
SPY move +1.0% Same window
Abnormal move -2.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -6.1% Up to 20 sessions
COFSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Capital One reported adjusted EPS of $4.42 for FY2026 Q1, beating prior expectations despite revenue dipping ~2% to $15.23B; both figures came in slightly below consensus (EPS by ~1.8%, revenue by ~0.7%). Shares fell ~2.5% in the event-close to next-close reaction window and subsequently drifted ~6% lower. The Brex acquisition closed shortly after quarter-end at a $4.5B purchase price with a ~40bp CET1 impact, and management reiterated converting Discover card originations to its technology by Q3 2026.

Guidance delta

Management did not provide explicit forward guidance on the call; the analysis marks guidance sentiment as not provided, so no directional EPS or revenue outlook is available to report.

Key takeaways

  • Q1 adjusted EPS rose to $4.42, beating prior expectations despite a ~2% revenue dip.
  • Discover integration delivered ~40% YoY purchase-volume growth and lifted loan balances, while credit metrics stayed strong.
  • The Brex closing adds business-payments capability but will slightly lower CET1 in the near term.
  • Consumer demand stayed resilient, with auto originations up ~21% YoY and deposits up ~35% YoY.
  • Continued investment in AI, cloud, and network acceptance underpins long-term growth despite near-term expense pressure.

Management priorities

  • Transition Discover card originations to Capital One technology by Q3 2026.
  • Fully integrate Brex over the coming months, leveraging Capital One's funding and brand.
  • Expand the new in-house Capital One travel app and the owned travel technology.
  • Scale AI and data-science capabilities across banking products.
  • Grow international acceptance and brand strength of the Discover network.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COF EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $3.31 Q1 '24 actual $3.21, miss Q2 '24 estimate $3.39 Q2 '24 actual $3.14, miss Q3 '24 estimate $3.76 Q3 '24 actual $4.51, beat Q2 '25 estimate $4.05 Q2 '25 actual $5.48, beat Q3 '25 estimate $4.49 Q3 '25 actual $5.95, beat Q4 '25 estimate $4.14 Q4 '25 actual $3.86, miss Q1 '26 estimate $4.50 Q1 '26 actual $4.42, miss Q2 '26 estimate $4.79 Q2 '26 actual $5.81, beat Q3 '26 estimate $5.47 Q4 '26 estimate $4.85 Q1 '27 estimate $5.76
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy56 ratings
Bullish3562.5%
Neutral1730.4%
Bearish47.1%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$200.2Current
$140Low
$233.19Average
$300High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wolfe Research Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 25, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 3, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 28, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainJul 28, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 22, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 13, 2026
HSBC Buy HoldUpgradeJul 13, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainJul 9, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainJul 7, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight NeutralUpgradeJun 30, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainJun 30, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainApr 23, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainApr 16, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainApr 9, 2026
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainApr 7, 2026
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Outperform OutperformMaintainJan 2, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainJul 23, 2025
Baird Outperform NeutralUpgradeMar 11, 2025
Jefferies Buy HoldUpgradeJun 6, 2024
BMO Capital Market Perform Market PerformMaintainJan 29, 2024
Stephens & Co. Underweight UnderweightMaintainJul 21, 2023
Credit Suisse Outperform OutperformMaintainApr 28, 2023
Odeon Capital Sell HoldDowngradeMar 2, 2023
Deutsche Bank Buy BuyMaintainJul 22, 2022
Oppenheimer Perform OutperformDowngradeJul 12, 2022
Nomura Buy BuyMaintainApr 24, 2020
Piper Jaffray Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 11, 2019
PiperJaffray Overweight NeutralUpgradeJun 14, 2018
Nomura Instinet Neutral BuyDowngradeFeb 21, 2018
Instinet Neutral BuyDowngradeFeb 21, 2018
Buckingham Research Buy BuyMaintainJan 24, 2018
Buckingham Buy BuyMaintainJan 24, 2018
Compass Point Buy NeutralUpgradeDec 22, 2017
Bank of America Buy NeutralUpgradeDec 18, 2017
Wedbush Neutral UnderperformUpgradeOct 25, 2017
Stifel Nicolaus Hold BuyDowngradeNov 14, 2016
Stifel Hold BuyDowngradeNov 14, 2016
CLSA Buy BuyMaintainSep 23, 2016
Rafferty Capital Hold BuyDowngradeJul 25, 2016
Rafferty Hold BuyDowngradeJul 25, 2016
DA Davidson Buy BuyMaintainJul 8, 2016
Sterne Agee CRT Underperform NeutralDowngradeJun 8, 2016
Sterne Agee Underperform NeutralDowngradeJun 8, 2016
Guggenheim Neutral SellUpgradeMay 9, 2016
Sandler O'Neil Buy HoldUpgradeApr 27, 2016
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainMay 6, 2015
FBR Capital Market Perform OutperformDowngradeApr 24, 2015
Susquehanna Neutral PositiveDowngradeJan 17, 2014
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Buy BuyMaintainOct 14, 2013
Sandler O'Neill Hold HoldMaintainMay 28, 2013
Janney Montgomery Scott Neutral BuyDowngradeJan 18, 2013
Janney Capital Neutral BuyDowngradeJan 18, 2013
Edward Jones Buy BuyMaintainDec 14, 2012
Rochdale Securities Buy HoldUpgradeOct 22, 2012
Drexel Hamilton Buy BuyMaintainOct 2, 2012
Argus Research Hold SellUpgradeMay 8, 2012
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $200.2. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$275$216.27 +37.4%Aug 25, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$245$215.34 +22.4%Aug 20, 2026
UBSErika Najarian$280$216.64 +39.9%Aug 3, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$240$206.22 +19.9%Jul 22, 2026
HSBCSaul Martinez$229$201.52 +14.4%Jul 12, 2026
Capital One FinancialAnalyst unavailable$231$191.95 +15.4%Jul 9, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$242$206.5 +20.9%Jul 7, 2026
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$259$202.28 +29.4%Jun 30, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$254$202.28 +26.9%Jun 29, 2026
Truist FinancialBrian Foran$255$199.43 +27.4%Apr 23, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$273$202.37 +36.4%Apr 16, 2026
RBC CapitalJon Arfstrom$235$191.7 +17.4%Apr 10, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$260$194.73 +29.9%Apr 9, 2026
Capital One FinancialAnalyst unavailable$213$194.73 +6.4%Apr 9, 2026
JefferiesJohn Hecht$300$180.85 +49.9%Mar 16, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$275$220.17 +37.4%Jan 26, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$287$217.3 +43.4%Jan 26, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$256$222.17 +27.9%Jan 23, 2026
Capital One FinancialAnalyst unavailable$270$235.07 +34.9%Jan 23, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$300$234.39 +49.9%Jan 20, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$275$231.5 +37.4%Jan 12, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$290$255.26 +44.9%Jan 6, 2026
Goldman SachsRyan Nash$300$250.51 +49.9%Jan 6, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$294$250.51 +46.9%Jan 6, 2026
Wells FargoDonald Fandetti$280$251.94 +39.9%Jan 5, 2026
Capital One FinancialAnalyst unavailable$308$248.45 +53.8%Dec 26, 2025
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$290$246.1 +44.9%Dec 22, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$280$240.59 +39.9%Dec 16, 2025
Capital One FinancialMihir Bhatia$268$240.76 +33.9%Dec 15, 2025
Wolfe ResearchDarrin Peller$270$230.68 +34.9%Dec 8, 2025
Capital One FinancialMoshe Orenbuch$261$218.61 +30.4%Nov 26, 2025
Robert W. BairdDavid George$270$217.05 +34.9%Oct 22, 2025
BarclaysTerry Ma$271$223.59 +35.4%Oct 22, 2025
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$218$210.74 +8.9%Oct 10, 2025
UBSAnalyst unavailable$266$213.14 +32.9%Oct 7, 2025
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$257$214.4 +28.4%Oct 6, 2025
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$255$223.6 +27.4%Sep 30, 2025
Morgan StanleyJeffrey Adelson$267$224.05 +33.4%Sep 29, 2025
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$225$182.73 +12.4%Apr 25, 2025
RBC CapitalJon Arfstrom$190$162.52 -5.1%Apr 14, 2025
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$215$174.82 +7.4%Mar 21, 2025
Evercore ISIJohn Pancari$200$165.4 -0.1%Mar 12, 2025
Wells FargoDonald Fandetti$210$178.89 +4.9%Jan 3, 2025
Deutsche BankMark DeVries$215$178.89 +7.4%Jan 3, 2025
Capital One FinancialKeith Horowitz$225$182.64 +12.4%Nov 21, 2024
Capital One FinancialKeith Horowitz$190$151.98 -5.1%Sep 20, 2024
JefferiesJohn Hecht$165$135.48 -17.6%Jun 6, 2024
Capital One FinancialMoshe Orenbuch$150$144.35 -25.1%May 15, 2024
Wolfe ResearchBill Carcache$189$143.27 -5.6%Apr 4, 2024
Capital One FinancialMihir Bhatia$129$113.77 -35.6%Dec 6, 2023
StephensVincent Caintic$140$108.29 -30.1%Aug 2, 2022
CitigroupAnalyst unavailable$157$108.93 -21.6%Jul 25, 2022
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$170$108.77 -15.1%Jul 22, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$121$114.27 -39.6%Jul 22, 2022
Robert W. BairdDavid George$145$102.11 -27.6%Jun 17, 2022
Piper SandlerKevin Barker$143$124.35 -28.6%Apr 28, 2022
Capital One FinancialAnalyst unavailable$188$125.43 -6.1%Apr 27, 2022
StephensAnalyst unavailable$193$125.98 -3.6%Apr 27, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$152$132.23 -24.1%Apr 27, 2022
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$160$132.23 -20.1%Apr 27, 2022
OppenheimerDominick Gabriele$163$130.42 -18.6%Apr 5, 2022
Bank of America SecuritiesMihir Bhatia$167$133.25 -16.6%Mar 28, 2022
BMO CapitalJames Fotheringham$194$144.35 -3.1%Jan 26, 2022
Deutsche BankMeng Jiao$192$144.35 -4.1%Jan 26, 2022
StephensVincent Caintic$205$144.35 +2.4%Jan 26, 2022
Credit SuisseMoshe Orenbuch$185$144.35 -7.6%Jan 26, 2022
RBC CapitalJon Arfstrom$177$151.58 -11.6%Jan 25, 2022
J.P. MorganRichard Shane$177$151.03 -11.6%Jan 19, 2022
Goldman SachsRyan Nash$174$150.16 -13.1%Jan 6, 2022
BarclaysJason Goldberg$207$147.77 +3.4%Jan 3, 2022
UBSEric Wasserstrom$200$151.84 -0.1%Nov 1, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Capital One Financial Corporation, identified by its ticker COF, operates as a prominent financial services holding company. It oversees essential subsidiaries such as Capital One Bank (USA), National Association, and Capital One, National Association, which collectively offer a broad spectrum of financial products and services throughout the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company structures its extensive operations into three core divisions: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. Clients can utilize various deposit instruments, including checking accounts, money market accounts, negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts, savings accounts, and time deposits.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T19:51:05.600433+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T19:51:05.597483+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.