Capital One Financial Corporation · COF · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Capital One beats on adjusted EPS in Q1; revenue dips as Brex closes

Capital One's Q1 2026 results support a thesis of earnings resilience: strong consumer and auto credit demand (auto originations +21% YoY, deposits +35% YoY) and the Discover acquisition are driving card volume and loan growth, with profitability cushioned by solid pre-provision earnings. The near-term trade-off is expense and capital pressure from integrating Discover and Brex, a slightly softer net interest margin, and a modest miss versus consensus on both EPS and revenue. Whether volume growth outpaces those integration costs over the next year is the key question.

Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services $120.62B market cap
90quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $4.42 Consensus $4.50
EPS surprise -1.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $15.23B Consensus $15.35B
Revenue surprise -0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -1.5% Event window
SPY move +1.0% Same window
Abnormal move -2.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -6.1% Up to 20 sessions
COFSPY benchmark

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What changed

Capital One reported adjusted EPS of $4.42 for FY2026 Q1, beating prior expectations despite revenue dipping ~2% to $15.23B; both figures came in slightly below consensus (EPS by ~1.8%, revenue by ~0.7%). Shares fell ~2.5% in the event-close to next-close reaction window and subsequently drifted ~6% lower. The Brex acquisition closed shortly after quarter-end at a $4.5B purchase price with a ~40bp CET1 impact, and management reiterated converting Discover card originations to its technology by Q3 2026.

Guidance delta

Management did not provide explicit forward guidance on the call; the analysis marks guidance sentiment as not provided, so no directional EPS or revenue outlook is available to report.

Key takeaways

  • Q1 adjusted EPS rose to $4.42, beating prior expectations despite a ~2% revenue dip.
  • Discover integration delivered ~40% YoY purchase-volume growth and lifted loan balances, while credit metrics stayed strong.
  • The Brex closing adds business-payments capability but will slightly lower CET1 in the near term.
  • Consumer demand stayed resilient, with auto originations up ~21% YoY and deposits up ~35% YoY.
  • Continued investment in AI, cloud, and network acceptance underpins long-term growth despite near-term expense pressure.

Management priorities

  • Transition Discover card originations to Capital One technology by Q3 2026.
  • Fully integrate Brex over the coming months, leveraging Capital One's funding and brand.
  • Expand the new in-house Capital One travel app and the owned travel technology.
  • Scale AI and data-science capabilities across banking products.
  • Grow international acceptance and brand strength of the Discover network.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COF REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $9B Q4 '23 actual $13B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $9B Q1 '24 actual $13B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $10B Q2 '24 actual $13B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $10B Q3 '24 actual $14B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $12B Q2 '25 actual $13B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $15B Q3 '25 actual $15B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $15B Q4 '25 actual $16B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $15B Q1 '26 actual $15B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $16B Q2 '26 actual $16B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $16B Q4 '26 estimate $17B Q1 '27 estimate $16B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy56 ratings
Bullish3562.5%
Neutral1730.4%
Bearish47.1%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$200.2Current
$140Low
$233.19Average
$300High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wolfe Research Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 25, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 3, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 28, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainJul 28, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 22, 2026
Show 51 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $200.2. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$275$216.27 +37.4%Aug 25, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$245$215.34 +22.4%Aug 20, 2026
UBSErika Najarian$280$216.64 +39.9%Aug 3, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$240$206.22 +19.9%Jul 22, 2026
HSBCSaul Martinez$229$201.52 +14.4%Jul 12, 2026
See 66 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Capital One Financial Corporation, identified by its ticker COF, operates as a prominent financial services holding company. It oversees essential subsidiaries such as Capital One Bank (USA), National Association, and Capital One, National Association, which collectively offer a broad spectrum of financial products and services throughout the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company structures its extensive operations into three core divisions: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. Clients can utilize various deposit instruments, including checking accounts, money market accounts, negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts, savings accounts, and time deposits.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T19:51:05.600433+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T19:51:05.597483+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.