Capital One Financial Corporation · COF-PL · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Capital One pairs solid credit trends with Brex and Discover execution

The quarter supports a constructive operating narrative through solid credit trends, network expansion, and new business-payments capabilities, but the investment case depends on disciplined execution of the Brex and Discover integration plans.

Reported Session unavailableNYSEFinancial Services $121.11B market cap
75quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.86 Consensus $4.14
EPS surprise -6.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $15.58B Consensus $15.47B
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

unavailable
Stock move — Event window
SPY move — Same window
Abnormal move — Stock minus SPY
Volume — Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift — Up to 20 sessions
Price and volume data were unavailable at publication time.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Capital One announced a stock-and-cash Brex acquisition and highlighted Discover network expansion, AI-enabled products, and continued capital return. The quarter also included a one-time gain from the Discover home-loan portfolio sale, while credit-loss provisions increased year over year.

Guidance delta

Not provided in the supplied analysis.

Key takeaways

  • Management described the quarter as supported by solid credit metrics and a one-time gain from the Discover home-loan portfolio sale.
  • The announced Brex acquisition adds a business-payments and small-business banking platform, but execution and integration remain important variables.
  • Management emphasized Discover network acceptance, AI-enabled products, continued card-franchise growth, and capital return.

Management priorities

  • Integrate Brex and Discover while expanding the Discover network’s global acceptance.
  • Invest in AI-enabled shopping, auto, and travel products and grow the national retail bank and heavy-spender card franchise.
  • Maintain capital generation to support share repurchases and dividend growth.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
COF-PL EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 actual $1.56, None Q3 '24 actual $4.56, None Q2 '25 estimate $4.05 Q2 '25 actual $-8.46, miss Q3 '25 estimate $4.49 Q3 '25 actual $4.94, beat Q4 '25 estimate $4.14 Q4 '25 actual $3.86, miss Q1 '26 estimate $4.50 Q1 '26 actual $4.42, miss Q2 '26 estimate $4.79 Q2 '26 actual $5.81, beat Q3 '26 estimate $5.50 Q3 '26 actual $6.69, beat Q4 '26 estimate $4.78 Q1 '27 estimate $5.73 Q2 '27 estimate $5.81 Q3 '27 estimate $6.55
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold35 ratings
Bullish1542.9%
Neutral1542.8%
Bearish514.3%

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 16, 2023
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 5, 2023
Morgan Stanley Underweight UnderweightMaintainOct 2, 2023
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 20, 2023
Stephens & Co. Underweight UnderweightMaintainJul 20, 2023
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Capital One Financial Corporation serves as the parent organization for its banking subsidiaries, Capital One Bank (USA), National Association, and Capital One, National Association. These entities deliver a diverse range of financial products and services to customers across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The corporation structures its business into three main divisions: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. Its offerings include various deposit accounts like checking, money market, negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW), savings, and time deposits.…

Historical context

All COF-PL earnings
—FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026—FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026—FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
COF-PN Capital One Financial Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +21.6% — Capital One pairs Q3 earnings growth with integration progress
EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +1.5% +2.2% EWBC: Record Q3 Results, Higher NII Guidance
COF Capital One Financial Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +21.6% +0.9% Capital One posts Q3 beat as synergies and credit trends strengthen
KEY-PK KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts strong Q3 as deposits and loan demand support growth
KEY-PL KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts strong Q3 as deposits and commercial demand rise
KEY-PJ KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp reports record revenue as deposits and commercial lending strengthen

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.