Cummins Inc. · CMI · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

Data-center power demand supports Cummins, while outlook moderates

Cummins’ data-center power demand and resilient truck activity remain important supports, but the lower-end revenue outlook, moderated margin view and execution risks make the near-term picture less uniformly strong than last quarter.

Why did CMI fall 4.9% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?

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Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials $61.75B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $7.71 Consensus $8.20
EPS surprise -6.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $9.44B Consensus $9.89B
Revenue surprise -4.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -4.9% Event window
SPY move -4.4% Same window
Abnormal move -0.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
CMISPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management shifted from a raised full-year outlook in the prior quarter to an outlook at the lower end of its earlier revenue range, alongside a reduced margin view and weaker pickup-truck expectations. Data-center demand remains a central growth driver, while current-quarter supply constraints and the HyLYZER stop-use recommendation add execution uncertainty.

Guidance delta

The full-year outlook was moderated: revenue growth is now expected near the lower end of the prior range, and the margin view is lower than the previous quarter’s guidance.

Key takeaways

  • Management described record quarterly profitability and continued demand for data-center power solutions.
  • Data-center power generation remains a principal source of demand, with battery storage also advancing.
  • The full-year outlook was moderated and pickup-truck expectations were reduced.
  • Supply constraints affected shipments; management expects improvement, while HyLYZER-related uncertainty remains.

Management priorities

  • Expand power-systems manufacturing capacity and address supply constraints.
  • Continue investment in product platforms, cooling systems and battery energy storage.
  • Manage the engine transition amid EPA rule and credit-timing uncertainty.
  • Resolve the potential HyLYZER product issue and assess its implications.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CMI REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $8B Q2 '24 actual $9B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $8B Q3 '24 actual $8B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $8B Q2 '25 actual $9B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $8B Q3 '25 actual $8B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $8B Q4 '25 actual $9B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $8B Q1 '26 actual $8B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $9B Q2 '26 actual $9B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $10B Q3 '26 actual $9B, miss Q4 '26 estimate $10B Q1 '27 estimate $9B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2752.9%
Neutral2345.1%
Bearish12.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$456.51Current
$220Low
$559.64Average
$845High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 26, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 19, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 12, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 5, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainSep 30, 2026
Show 46 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $456.51. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$608$517.4 +33.2%Oct 26, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$760$517.32 +66.5%Oct 8, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$779$523.72 +70.6%Oct 5, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$741$521.37 +62.3%Sep 30, 2026
BernsteinChad Dillard$700$653.78 +53.3%Aug 5, 2026
See 51 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Cummins Inc. is a global innovator in power solutions, responsible for the design, manufacturing, distribution, and maintenance of a broad array of diesel and natural gas engines, alongside cutting-edge electric and hybrid powertrains, and associated components. Its operations are strategically divided into five segments: Engine, Distribution, Components, Power Systems, and New Power. The company's extensive engine portfolio, available under the Cummins brand and others, powers a vast range of heavy and medium-duty applications, including commercial trucks, buses, recreational vehicles, light-duty automobiles, construction and mining equipment, marine vessels, railway systems, oil and gas operations, defense, and agriculture. Complementing these engines, Cummins provides both new and remanufactured parts and comprehensive servicing. Beyond its core engine offerings, Cummins delivers sophisticated power generation systems, high-horsepower engines, and specialized application engineering.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-05T21:16:59.769173+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-06T01:23:16.275024+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-06T12:10:45.886995+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-06T12:10:45.884243+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.