Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2752.9%
Neutral2345.1%
Bearish12.0%
Cummins Inc. · CMI · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Cummins Raises 2026 Outlook on Data-Center Power Demand
The Q2 evidence supports the hypothesis that resilient demand can underpin earnings growth over the next year, led by data-center power generation and stronger truck markets. The case is not without friction: regulation, capacity, costs, and execution could limit margin conversion.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$72.60B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$6.73
Consensus $7.21
EPS surprise
-6.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$9.46B
Consensus $9.33B
Revenue surprise
+1.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.0%
Event window
SPY move
+1.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-13.3%
Up to 20 sessions
CMISPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about CMI FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did CMI fall 2.0% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in CMI's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for CMI after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Versus the prior quarter, Cummins reported record Q2 sales, raised its full-year outlook, added a multiyear hyperscaler agreement, and disclosed a phased EPA 2027 engine transition. Capital spending and a dividend increase also reinforced management’s confidence.
Guidance delta
Management raised 2026 revenue-growth guidance to 10%-13% and EBITDA-margin guidance to 18%-18.5%.
Key takeaways
- Q2 sales reached a record $9.5 billion, up 9% year over year.
- Power generation and data-center backup demand remained the primary growth engine.
- A phased X15 and X10 transition is planned ahead of EPA 2027 requirements.
- Capacity, regulation, compensation, tariffs, and distribution margins remain key watchpoints.
Management priorities
- Expand global power-generation manufacturing capacity.
- Execute the phased X15, X10, and B-platform engine transition.
- Invest $1.35-$1.45 billion in 2026 capital projects.
- Maintain dividend growth and share repurchases.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$526.13Current
$220Low
$566.96Average
$894High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 26, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Melius Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 27, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 6, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 10, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 4, 2023 |
| CFRA | Buy | Strong Buy | Downgrade | May 3, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 12, 2023 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 20, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 16, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | May 6, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | May 12, 2020 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Nov 25, 2019 |
| Loop Capital | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jul 2, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2019 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2019 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 16, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 16, 2019 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 7, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 9, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 4, 2018 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 29, 2018 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 18, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 6, 2017 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 12, 2017 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 6, 2017 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Buy | Maintain | Dec 1, 2016 |
| Avondale Partners | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | May 3, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 11, 2016 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 5, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 28, 2015 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 25, 2015 |
| FirstEnergy Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 27, 2015 |
| Standpoint | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 15, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 24, 2014 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Hold | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Feb 10, 2014 |
| Tigress Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 12, 2013 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 11, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $526.13. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Chad Dillard | $700 | $653.78 | +33.0% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $835 | $653.64 | +58.7% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $894 | $658.53 | +69.9% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $901 | $682.32 | +71.3% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $874 | $699.97 | +66.1% | Jun 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $850 | $651.22 | +61.6% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $770 | $637.46 | +46.4% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $745 | $659.97 | +41.6% | May 26, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $845 | $689.5 | +60.6% | May 11, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $815 | $710.28 | +54.9% | May 6, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $674.88 | +33.0% | May 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $752 | $674.88 | +42.9% | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $760 | $674.88 | +44.5% | May 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $730 | $626.83 | +38.7% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $696 | $587.51 | +32.3% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Angel Castillo | $675 | $563.41 | +28.3% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $580 | $570.03 | +10.2% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $703 | $566.94 | +33.6% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $600 | $556.6 | +14.0% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $565 | $540.65 | +7.4% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | $540 | $569.99 | +2.6% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $610 | $580.11 | +15.9% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $630 | $583.07 | +19.7% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Tim Thein | $585 | $506.72 | +11.2% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $546 | $500.61 | +3.8% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $653 | $504.17 | +24.1% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $573 | $487.29 | +8.9% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $500 | $485.62 | -5.0% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $628 | $472.51 | +19.4% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $599 | $467.49 | +13.9% | Nov 13, 2025 |
| Barclays | Adam Seiden | $515 | $484.34 | -2.1% | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Chad Dillard | $475 | $473.04 | -9.7% | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $430 | $411.83 | -18.3% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $434 | $432.32 | -17.5% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Angel Castillo | $350 | $298.34 | -33.5% | May 6, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | David Raso | $408 | $293.97 | -22.5% | Nov 13, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Luke Junk | $372 | $353.86 | -29.3% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Barclays | Adam Seiden | $310 | $290.36 | -41.1% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $321 | $274.84 | -39.0% | Mar 15, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $303 | $262.28 | -42.4% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $231 | $251.66 | -56.1% | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $291 | $250.9 | -44.7% | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $264 | $246.47 | -49.8% | Dec 14, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Jamie Cook | $266 | $227.76 | -49.4% | Aug 15, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $201.88 | -48.7% | May 4, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Nicole DeBlase | $233 | $196.71 | -55.7% | Apr 18, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Timothy Thein | $220 | $195.94 | -58.2% | Apr 16, 2022 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $214 | $206.15 | -59.3% | Mar 21, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Timothy Thein | $280 | $227.22 | -46.8% | Oct 12, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jerry Revich | $230 | $233.14 | -56.3% | Aug 24, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Tiss | $270 | $259.56 | -48.7% | May 6, 2021 |
| Barclays | Adam Seiden | $260 | $254.72 | -50.6% | May 5, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CMI the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationCummins Inc. is a global innovator in power solutions, responsible for the design, manufacturing, distribution, and maintenance of a broad array of diesel and natural gas engines, alongside cutting-edge electric and hybrid powertrains, and associated components. Its operations are strategically divided into five segments: Engine, Distribution, Components, Power Systems, and New Power. The company's extensive engine portfolio, available under the Cummins brand and others, powers a vast range of heavy and medium-duty applications, including commercial trucks, buses, recreational vehicles, light-duty automobiles, construction and mining equipment, marine vessels, railway systems, oil and gas operations, defense, and agriculture. Complementing these engines, Cummins provides both new and remanufactured parts and comprehensive servicing. Beyond its core engine offerings, Cummins delivers sophisticated power generation systems, high-horsepower engines, and specialized application engineering.…
Historical context
All CMI earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPS Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.3% | +9.5% | Forgent Power Solutions pairs record results with an aggressive FY27 buildout |
| CPRT Copart, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -8.7% | -2.6% | Copart pairs international growth with ACV investment amid higher costs |
| SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +19.2% | +5.9% | Sunbelt raises FY27 outlook as specialty rental demand accelerates |
| FRO Frontline Plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.0% | +1.0% | Frontline posts a record quarter as tanker rates remain elevated |
| DCI Donaldson Company, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.8% | +2.1% | Donaldson posts record FY26 and targets further growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FPSFY2026 Q4 · September 15, 2026+4.3% EPS+9.5% move
- TCOMFY2026 Q2 · September 15, 2026+22.3% EPS+3.0% move
- KRFY2026 Q2 · September 11, 2026+2.8% EPS+2.7% move
- ADBEFY2026 Q3 · September 10, 2026+0.8% EPS+1.4% move
- ORCLFY2027 Q1 · September 10, 2026+10.3% EPS-1.7% move
- CASYFY2027 Q1 · September 8, 2026+8.7% EPS-14.2% move
Get the CMI recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-04T20:07:45.492728+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-09T01:23:14.388487+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-23T01:30:53.206080+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-23T01:30:53.202951+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.