Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish2351.1%
Neutral1840.0%
Bearish48.9%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. · CHRW · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
CHRW Beats EPS by 10%, Reaffirms $6 Target as AI-Driven Margins Expand
C.H. Robinson delivered a 15% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS to $1.35, beating consensus by roughly 10%, powered by its Lean AI strategy that drove double-digit productivity gains and 310 basis points of NAST operating margin expansion. Revenue came in slightly below estimates at $4.01 billion. Despite the earnings beat, the market reacted negatively with a -3.5% abnormal move and -1.7% subsequent drift, potentially reflecting concerns over the revenue miss, elevated spot-rate costs, and whether AI-driven productivity gains can sustain margins in a softer freight environment. Management reaffirmed its $6 full-year EPS target with no growth assumptions, underpinned by a 12% headcount reduction and over 450 in-house engineers building proprietary AI agents.
Reported After market closeNASDAQIndustrials
$17.32B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.35
Consensus $1.23
EPS surprise
+9.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.01B
Consensus $4.05B
Revenue surprise
-0.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-2.5%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-1.7%
Up to 20 sessions
CHRWSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about CHRW FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did CHRW fall 2.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in CHRW's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for CHRW after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Q1 2026 marked a notable inflection in C.H. Robinson's operating model. The company reduced headcount by 12% (approximately $18.8M restructuring charge) as AI-driven productivity gains allowed it to operate leaner. NAST operating margin expanded 310 bps YoY while gross margin held at 14.6%. Contractual truckload mix increased from 65% to 70%, reducing exposure to volatile spot markets. The company returned $360M to shareholders in the quarter and maintained $1.24B in liquidity. EPS of $1.35 exceeded the $1.23 consensus by roughly 10%, though revenue of $4.01B fell approximately 0.8% short of the $4.05B estimate. Management also flagged the anticipated outcome of the Montgomery Supreme Court case and its implications for broker safety regulation.
Guidance delta
Management reaffirmed its $6 EPS target for full-year 2026, explicitly stating it carries no growth assumptions. The company expects double-digit productivity improvements to be over-indexed in H2 2026. Capex outlook remains stable. Guidance sentiment was characterized as maintained.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EPS grew 15% YoY to $1.35, beating consensus by approximately 10% despite higher spot-rate costs
- NAST gross margin held at 14.6%; operating margin expanded 310 bps YoY
- Lean AI delivering double-digit productivity gains, enabling a 12% headcount reduction (~$18.8M restructuring)
- Management reaffirmed $6 EPS target for 2026 with no growth assumptions
- Strong balance sheet: $1.24B liquidity, $360M returned to shareholders in Q1
- Contractual truckload mix rose from 65% to 70%, reducing spot market exposure
Management priorities
- Scale AI agents across the quote-to-cash lifecycle, including Global Forwarding
- Achieve double-digit productivity improvements in 2026, over-indexed in H2
- Leverage Q2 seasonal strength with disciplined volume vs. margin decisions
- Continue share repurchase program and strong cash returns to shareholders
- Expand capabilities in retail, automotive, drop-trailer, cross-border, and short-haul services
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$124.76Current
$62Low
$161.37Average
$237High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jul 1, 2025 |
| TD Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 1, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 18, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 16, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Vertical Research | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Oct 30, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 3, 2018 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 27, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 21, 2016 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Jan 7, 2016 |
| Cleveland Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 11, 2015 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 10, 2014 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 15, 2014 |
| Edward Jones | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Jul 31, 2014 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Mar 31, 2014 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 6, 2014 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 6, 2014 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 23, 2012 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 9, 2012 |
| Avondale Partners | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 25, 2012 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Perform | Maintain | May 11, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $124.76. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $144.16 | +28.2% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Raymond James | David Hicks | $170 | $141.38 | +36.3% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $142.31 | +22.6% | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $209 | $135.18 | +67.5% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $134.44 | +60.3% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $134.92 | +73.9% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $140.61 | +62.7% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $220 | $140.61 | +76.3% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $151 | $148.29 | +21.0% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $225 | $146.92 | +80.3% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $237 | $149.13 | +90.0% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $196 | $150.9 | +57.1% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $192 | $173.75 | +53.9% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Janney Montgomery | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $168.95 | +24.2% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Daniel Moore | $200 | $174.46 | +60.3% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $209.42 | +76.3% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $215 | $199.61 | +72.3% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $198.24 | +81.1% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $196.5 | +52.3% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $190.5 | -27.1% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $191.27 | +62.7% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $179.78 | +84.4% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $200 | $173.02 | +60.3% | May 20, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $179.87 | +84.4% | May 1, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $187.2 | +68.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $186.43 | +68.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $205 | $167.66 | +64.3% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Sergey Glinyanov | $206 | $197.26 | +65.1% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $194.71 | +28.2% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $187.29 | -27.9% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $188.74 | +68.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $187.62 | +60.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $202 | $190.76 | +61.9% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $219 | $191.52 | +75.5% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $184.28 | +62.7% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $184.28 | +76.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $192.53 | +44.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Brown | $215 | $190.91 | +72.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $224 | $177.9 | +79.5% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $174.54 | +52.3% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $149 | $173.42 | +19.4% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $196 | $172.54 | +57.1% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $166.01 | +22.6% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $188 | $166.01 | +50.7% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $210 | $166.76 | +68.3% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $164.64 | +40.3% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $185 | $167.21 | +48.3% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $184 | $157.62 | +47.5% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $157.62 | +60.3% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $157.22 | -31.9% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $154.88 | +16.2% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $154.75 | +32.3% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $135 | $155.56 | +8.2% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $131 | $154.95 | +5.0% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Stephens | Reed Seay | $173 | $129.38 | +38.7% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $177 | $129.38 | +41.9% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Brown | $161 | $129.38 | +29.0% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $140 | $129.38 | +12.2% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $125.57 | +20.2% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $158 | $124.39 | +26.6% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $128.9 | +15.4% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $166 | $135 | +33.1% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $132.66 | +4.2% | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Richa Harnain | $159 | $132.66 | +27.4% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $131.87 | +24.2% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $160 | $133.3 | +28.2% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $165 | $132.44 | +32.3% | Sep 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $133 | $97.65 | +6.6% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $95 | $97.65 | -23.9% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Raymond James | David Hicks | $111 | $97.06 | -11.0% | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $117 | $101.66 | -6.2% | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $129 | $102.45 | +3.4% | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Raymond James | David Hicks | $123 | $101.76 | -1.4% | Jan 10, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $130 | $104.05 | +4.2% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $130 | $108.14 | +4.2% | Dec 9, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $115 | $109.64 | -7.8% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $140 | $105.5 | +12.2% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Benjamin Hartford | $115 | $110.04 | -7.8% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $120 | $108.02 | -3.8% | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $75 | $102.21 | -39.9% | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Garrett Holland | $100 | $89.05 | -19.8% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ken Hoexter | $99 | $90.19 | -20.6% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Brian Ossenbeck | $87 | $87.6 | -30.3% | Jul 9, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $99 | $88.49 | -20.6% | Jun 25, 2024 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $90 | $87.64 | -27.9% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $80 | $82.66 | -35.9% | May 21, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $85 | $80.93 | -31.9% | May 3, 2024 |
| HSBC | Alexandre Falcao | $138 | $75.31 | +10.6% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| CFRA | Stewart Glickman | $95 | $81.43 | -23.9% | Nov 2, 2023 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $86 | $104.28 | -31.1% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $87 | $103.96 | -30.3% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $101.98 | -31.9% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $102.12 | -48.7% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $102.12 | -23.9% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $102.12 | -26.3% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $92.8 | -27.9% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $93.36 | -25.5% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $93.31 | -27.9% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $90.28 | -25.5% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $90.28 | -35.1% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| BNP Paribas | Robert Joynson | $128 | $97.41 | +2.6% | Nov 30, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $98.02 | -46.3% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $107.99 | -47.1% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $101.13 | -24.7% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $95.57 | -25.5% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $109.56 | -3.8% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $108.92 | -3.8% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $108.9 | -14.2% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $107.94 | -7.8% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $102.83 | -11.8% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $100 | $89.08 | -19.8% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Christian Wetherbee | $180 | $89.08 | +44.3% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $62 | $89.08 | -50.3% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| KeyBanc | Todd Fowler | $125 | $89.08 | +0.2% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $94 | $89.08 | -24.7% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $105 | $89.08 | -15.8% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| Benchmark Co. | Christopher Kuhn | $125 | $102.27 | +0.2% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $117 | $107.4 | -6.2% | Jan 11, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $93 | $87.07 | -25.5% | Jul 28, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $108 | $96.95 | -13.4% | Jun 7, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CHRW the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. serves as a global provider of diverse freight transportation and logistics solutions, assisting companies across numerous industries. The organization's business operations are segmented into two key areas: North American Surface Transportation and Global Forwarding. Its comprehensive range of services spans various shipping modalities. This includes brokerage for both full truckload (FTL) and less-than-truckload (LTL) freight, managing everything from single-pallet shipments to full container loads. C.H. Robinson also coordinates intermodal transport, which involves moving goods in containers or trailers through a combination of truck and rail networks, in addition to acting as a non-vessel operating common carrier (NVOCC) for ocean freight and arranging air cargo shipments. The company consistently provides end-to-end door-to-door delivery services.…
Historical context
All CHRW earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- GENFY2027 Q2 · October 28, 2026+2.9% EPS+11.2% move
- KLACFY2027 Q1 · October 28, 2026+2.5% EPS+7.3% move
- SANFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 20260.0% EPS-6.3% move
- FFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+19.5% EPS+1.4% move
- EQIXFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+20.0% EPS+5.4% move
- EBAYFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+7.1% EPS+0.2% move
Missed on EPS
- CPFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-3.2% EPS-1.9% move
- LIIFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-7.1% EPS-10.6% move
- EXRFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-1.7% EPS+0.1% move
- NOWFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-2.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CMGFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-7.1% EPS+2.7% move
- GOOGFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-11.3% EPS+1.6% move
Get the CHRW recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T02:41:35.959850+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T02:41:35.956827+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-07-31. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.