C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. · CHRW · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

C.H. Robinson: AI Productivity Supports Margins, Guidance Lowered

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: AI-enabled productivity, market-share gains, and disciplined costs strengthen C.H. Robinson's operating model, while freight-cycle, tariff, and margin durability risks remain material.

Reported After market closeNASDAQIndustrials $17.34B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.29 Consensus $1.16
EPS surprise +11.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $4.14B Consensus $4.17B
Revenue surprise -0.8% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +18.1% Event window
SPY move -0.4% Same window
Abnormal move +18.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 5.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +12.1% Up to 20 sessions
CHRWSPY benchmark

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Why did CHRW rise 18.1% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in CHRW's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for CHRW after FY2025 Q2 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, management's priorities remained centered on AI automation, productivity, and market-share gains, but the current analysis shifts guidance sentiment to lowered, specifically for 2025 personnel and SG&A expenses. It also adds broader deployment of AI agents, tariff-analysis tools, and Robinson Financial as focal points.

Guidance delta

Management lowered 2025 personnel and SG&A expense guidance while keeping the operating plan focused on productivity, automation, and margin expansion.

Key takeaways

  • Management described six consecutive quarters of outperformance and market-share gains in truckload and LTL.
  • The analysis highlights AI and automation as drivers of productivity gains and gross-margin expansion.
  • New digital tools address tariff analysis, customs compliance, and item-level visibility.
  • The balance sheet was described as supporting continued share repurchases and dividends.
  • The main tension is whether operating-margin gains can hold as freight conditions and rates change.

Management priorities

  • Expand proprietary AI agents across modes and global forwarding.
  • Decouple headcount growth from volume through automation and productivity initiatives.
  • Pursue operating-margin targets and revenue-management improvements.
  • Expand digital self-serve compliance and tariff-analysis tools.
  • Develop Robinson Financial carrier-payment services.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CHRW EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $0.62 Q1 '24 actual $0.86, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.96 Q2 '24 actual $1.15, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.12 Q3 '24 actual $1.28, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1.16 Q2 '25 actual $1.29, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1.30 Q3 '25 actual $1.40, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1.12 Q4 '25 actual $1.23, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.23 Q1 '26 actual $1.35, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.53 Q2 '26 actual $1.61, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.70 Q4 '26 estimate $1.60 Q1 '27 estimate $1.62
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish2351.1%
Neutral1840.0%
Bearish48.9%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$148.53Current
$62Low
$159.52Average
$237High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Citigroup Buy NeutralUpgradeSep 8, 2026
Bernstein Market Perform Market PerformMaintainAug 11, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainJul 31, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainJul 30, 2026
Stephens & Co. Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 30, 2026
Show 40 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $148.53. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BernsteinDavid Vernon$151$148.29 +1.7%Aug 11, 2026
Stifel NicolausBruce Chan$225$146.92 +51.5%Jul 31, 2026
Evercore ISIJonathan Chappell$237$149.13 +59.6%Jul 30, 2026
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$196$150.9 +32.0%Jul 30, 2026
Raymond JamesAnalyst unavailable$192$173.75 +29.3%Jul 30, 2026
See 107 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. serves as a global provider of diverse freight transportation and logistics solutions, assisting companies across numerous industries. The organization's business operations are segmented into two key areas: North American Surface Transportation and Global Forwarding. Its comprehensive range of services spans various shipping modalities. This includes brokerage for both full truckload (FTL) and less-than-truckload (LTL) freight, managing everything from single-pallet shipments to full container loads. C.H. Robinson also coordinates intermodal transport, which involves moving goods in containers or trailers through a combination of truck and rail networks, in addition to acting as a non-vessel operating common carrier (NVOCC) for ocean freight and arranging air cargo shipments. The company consistently provides end-to-end door-to-door delivery services.…

Historical context

All CHRW earnings
-15.4%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-2.5%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Industrials peers this season

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FPS Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +4.3% +9.5% Forgent Power Solutions pairs record results with an aggressive FY27 buildout
CPRT Copart, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 -8.7% -2.6% Copart pairs international growth with ACV investment amid higher costs
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +19.2% +5.9% Sunbelt raises FY27 outlook as specialty rental demand accelerates
FRO Frontline Plc FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.0% +1.0% Frontline posts a record quarter as tanker rates remain elevated

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-28T19:11:00.951631+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-28T19:11:00.948406+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.