C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. · CHRW · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025

C.H. Robinson: AI productivity supports margin-focused execution

The supplied transcript analysis supports a cautiously constructive operating thesis: market-share gains, margin expansion, and AI-enabled productivity are potential supports, but the next-year case depends on sustaining those gains through freight-demand, tariff, weather, and capacity uncertainty.

Reported After market closeNASDAQIndustrials $16.57B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $1.05
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $4.25B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +1.2% Event window
SPY move +0.7% Same window
Abnormal move +0.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +6.3% Up to 20 sessions
CHRWSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about CHRW FY2025 Q1

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove CHRW's +1.2% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in CHRW's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for CHRW after FY2025 Q1 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the supplied prior-quarter analysis, management highlighted more than 3 million GenAI shipping tasks completed in Q1, market-share gains in truckload and LTL, a lower 2025 capex outlook of $65-$75 million, and continued diversification away from the China-U.S. trade lane.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its guidance stance while lowering 2025 capex guidance to $65-$75 million.

Key takeaways

  • Management reported Q1 income from operations up 39% year over year, with market-share gains in truckload and LTL.
  • GenAI agents completed more than 3 million shipping tasks in Q1, supporting automation and productivity efforts.
  • The company emphasized diversified trade lanes, managed solutions, and disciplined investment.
  • The supplied facts do not include reported EPS or revenue actuals, so no beat-or-miss conclusion is made.

Management priorities

  • Scale GenAI agents across additional modes and customers.
  • Expand Robinson Managed Solutions and transportation-management integration.
  • Use dynamic pricing and cost-to-serve reductions to support margins.
  • Keep productivity improvements ahead of volume and maintain disciplined technology investment.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CHRW EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $0.62 Q1 '24 actual $0.86, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.96 Q2 '24 actual $1.15, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.12 Q3 '24 actual $1.28, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1.16 Q2 '25 actual $1.29, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1.30 Q3 '25 actual $1.40, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1.12 Q4 '25 actual $1.23, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.23 Q1 '26 actual $1.35, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.53 Q2 '26 actual $1.61, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.72 Q4 '26 estimate $1.60 Q1 '27 estimate $1.62
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish2351.1%
Neutral1840.0%
Bearish48.9%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$140.61Previous close
$62Low
$159.52Average
$237High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 5, 2026
Citigroup Buy NeutralUpgradeSep 8, 2026
Bernstein Market Perform Market PerformMaintainAug 11, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainJul 31, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainJul 30, 2026
Show 40 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $140.61. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BernsteinDavid Vernon$151$148.29 +7.4%Aug 11, 2026
Stifel NicolausBruce Chan$225$146.92 +60.0%Jul 31, 2026
Evercore ISIJonathan Chappell$237$149.13 +68.6%Jul 30, 2026
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$196$150.9 +39.4%Jul 30, 2026
Raymond JamesAnalyst unavailable$192$173.75 +36.5%Jul 30, 2026
See 107 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. serves as a global provider of diverse freight transportation and logistics solutions, assisting companies across numerous industries. The organization's business operations are segmented into two key areas: North American Surface Transportation and Global Forwarding. Its comprehensive range of services spans various shipping modalities. This includes brokerage for both full truckload (FTL) and less-than-truckload (LTL) freight, managing everything from single-pallet shipments to full container loads. C.H. Robinson also coordinates intermodal transport, which involves moving goods in containers or trailers through a combination of truck and rail networks, in addition to acting as a non-vessel operating common carrier (NVOCC) for ocean freight and arranging air cargo shipments. The company consistently provides end-to-end door-to-door delivery services.…

Historical context

All CHRW earnings
-15.4%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-2.5%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026+18.1%FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

Industrials peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
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PAYX Paychex, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +1.5% -8.8% Paychex maintains FY27 outlook as PEO and AI momentum strengthen
FPS Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +4.3% +9.5% Forgent Power Solutions pairs record results with an aggressive FY27 buildout
CPRT Copart, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 -8.7% -2.6% Copart pairs international growth with ACV investment amid higher costs
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +19.2% +5.9% Sunbelt raises FY27 outlook as specialty rental demand accelerates
FRO Frontline Plc FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.0% +1.0% Frontline posts a record quarter as tanker rates remain elevated

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

Beat on EPS

Missed on EPS

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One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-16T00:02:45.914612+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T07:50:44.032247+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T07:50:44.029383+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.