Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold40 ratings
Bullish2050.0%
Neutral1435.0%
Bearish615.0%
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. · CF · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
CF Industries Beats on Tight Nitrogen Market as Blue Point Plant Advances
CF Industries is leveraging a structurally tight global nitrogen market — intensified by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East and Russia — to generate industry-leading free cash flow from its low-cost North American production base. The upcoming Blue Point ammonia plant, over 95% decarbonized and adding 1.5+ million tons of capacity by 2029, positions the company for both volume growth and decarbonization premium capture. With natural gas costs softening to approximately $2.60/MMBtu, margins are expanding even as export-restriction and regulatory risks persist. The Q1 beat was substantial but the market reaction was muted, with shares drifting approximately 4.4% lower post-earnings, suggesting investors are weighing whether elevated pricing is sustainable beyond the current cycle.
Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials
$19.32B market cap
90quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationCF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global producer and distributor of hydrogen and nitrogen-based products. These essential chemicals serve a variety of purposes worldwide, including energy generation, agricultural fertilization, environmental emissions reduction, and numerous other industrial applications. The company's core product lineup features vital nitrogen compounds such as anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and different forms of ammonium nitrate. In addition to these primary offerings, CF Industries also provides specialized chemicals like diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia, alongside complex fertilizers containing nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Its diverse customer base includes agricultural cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, commodity traders, wholesalers, and a wide array of industrial end-users. Founded in 1946, the firm is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.99
Consensus $3
EPS surprise
+51.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.99B
Consensus $1.84B
Revenue surprise
+8.0%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$125.77Previous close
$59.5Low
$96.3Average
$145High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Jun 30, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 3, 2026 |
| CIBC | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Mar 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 26, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 18, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 22, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 27, 2025 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 17, 2024 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 4, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 3, 2023 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 26, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 20, 2023 |
| Consumer Edge Research | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Sep 6, 2022 |
| Cleveland Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 12, 2021 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Nov 23, 2020 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Apr 9, 2020 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Mar 2, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 25, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 7, 2019 |
| Citi | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 31, 2019 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 5, 2018 |
| Atlantic Equities | Underweight | Neutral | Downgrade | Nov 14, 2017 |
| CLSA | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 6, 2016 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Mar 28, 2016 |
| Craig-Hallum | Sell | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 17, 2015 |
| Feltl & Co. | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 8, 2014 |
| BGC FInancial | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 21, 2014 |
| Credit Agricole | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | May 10, 2013 |
| Dahlman Rose | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 22, 2013 |
| Topeka Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 8, 2012 |
| Topeka | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 8, 2012 |
| Miller Tabak | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 3, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 7, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $125.77. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $129 | $124.2 | +2.6% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Vincent Andrews | $115 | $113.2 | -8.6% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $125 | $105.4 | -0.6% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $115 | -4.6% | May 11, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $128 | $125.71 | +1.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $120.91 | +15.3% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $114.98 | -8.6% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $124.72 | +3.4% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Vincent Andrews | $135 | $126.16 | +7.3% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $97 | $95.45 | -22.9% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $95.79 | -32.4% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $96.27 | -20.5% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $103 | $99.46 | -18.1% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $95 | $95.81 | -24.5% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $92.5 | -42.8% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $89.4 | -34.8% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $86 | $82.43 | -31.6% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $79.01 | -30.0% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $75.84 | -28.4% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| CIBC | Hamir Patel | $87 | $78.88 | -30.8% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $90 | $82.58 | -28.4% | Nov 10, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $100 | $90.69 | -20.5% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $96 | $91.02 | -23.7% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Andrew Wong | $100 | $97.41 | -20.5% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Vincent Andrews | $95 | $91.4 | -24.5% | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $91.4 | -16.5% | Jun 25, 2025 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $87 | $75.54 | -30.8% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $76.31 | -24.5% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $79 | $83.71 | -37.2% | Nov 8, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $77 | $83.76 | -38.8% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Redburn Partners | Mazahir Mammadli | $77 | $85.78 | -38.8% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Steve Byrne | $83 | $85.07 | -34.0% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $93 | $86.81 | -26.1% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $90 | $80.48 | -28.4% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Jackson | $100 | $79.53 | -20.5% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $80 | $71.39 | -36.4% | Jul 23, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $73 | $78.67 | -42.0% | Jun 11, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $73 | $74.25 | -42.0% | May 13, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $75 | $74.99 | -40.4% | May 7, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $80 | $74.42 | -36.4% | May 6, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Jackson | $95 | $74.45 | -24.5% | May 6, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $81 | $81.52 | -35.6% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $85 | $78.78 | -32.4% | Jan 12, 2024 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $119 | $83.9 | -5.4% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $118 | $96.92 | -6.2% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $95.99 | -14.1% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $94.44 | -38.0% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $94.53 | -7.0% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $85.54 | -12.5% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $103 | $86.93 | -18.1% | Jun 18, 2022 |
| Maxim Group | Jason McCarthy | $108.23 | $31.2 | -13.9% | Jun 14, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $95.72 | +5.0% | May 31, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $97.09 | -4.6% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $106.14 | -16.5% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Barclays | Duffy Fischer | $83 | $76.19 | -34.0% | Feb 17, 2022 |
| Berenberg Bank | Adrien Tamagno | $77 | $76.19 | -38.8% | Feb 17, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Chris Parkinson | $81 | $74.42 | -35.6% | Feb 16, 2022 |
| UBS | John Roberts CFA | $85 | $74.42 | -32.4% | Feb 16, 2022 |
| HSBC | Santhosh Seshadri | $59.5 | $44.09 | -52.7% | Aug 20, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Steve Byrne | $68 | $46.47 | -45.9% | Jul 16, 2021 |
Track every rating change on CF the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-0.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-4.4%
Up to 20 sessions
CFSPY benchmark
Follow CF with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
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What changed
Q1 FY2026 results significantly exceeded consensus, with adjusted EPS of $3.99 versus a $2.63 estimate (51.7% surprise) and revenue of $1.99 billion versus $1.84 billion estimated (8.0% surprise). Adjusted EBITDA reached $983 million with net earnings of $615 million. A $170 million litigation settlement gain with Orica and Nelson Brothers was recorded in the quarter. Natural gas costs have fallen to approximately $2.60/MMBtu, improving production margins. Geopolitical disruptions — including Iran-related conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure concerns — have intensified the nitrogen supply shock, supporting higher pricing through 2027. Despite the beat, the stock's abnormal move was only -0.60% on the event, with subsequent drift of -4.37% over the following sessions on 1.6x baseline volume.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its forward outlook with no upward or downward revision to full-year expectations. Capex outlook remains stable, centered on commencing Blue Point ammonia plant construction in 2026.
Key takeaways
- Global nitrogen supply remains tightly constrained, supporting higher prices through 2027.
- CF Industries' North American network offers low-cost, low-risk production, generating industry-leading free cash flow.
- The Blue Point ammonia project will be over 95% decarbonized and add more than 1.5 million tons of capacity by 2029.
- Share repurchases continue with $1.7 billion authorized, reflecting confidence in intrinsic value.
- Natural gas prices have softened to approximately $2.60/MMBtu, improving margins, but geopolitical and export-restriction risks persist.
Management priorities
- Commence construction of the Blue Point ammonia plant in 2026.
- Consider a second Blue Point unit after evaluating first-unit performance.
- Continue opportunistic share repurchases under the $1.7 billion authorization.
- Expand low-carbon ammonia product offerings and related contracts.
- Maintain tight North American supply for spring planting season.
Related earnings events
Basic MaterialsSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T05:01:12.220474+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T05:01:12.217657+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.