Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold41 ratings
Bullish2048.8%
Neutral1536.6%
Bearish614.6%
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. · CF · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
CF Industries: Tight Nitrogen Market Supports Confident Outlook
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: strong nitrogen demand, constrained supply and progress in low-carbon ammonia may support earnings resilience. The thesis remains dependent on execution, premium durability, regulatory support and cost control.
Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials
$17.74B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.19
Consensus $2.16
EPS surprise
+1.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.66B
Consensus $1.67B
Revenue surprise
-0.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-4.2%
Event window
SPY move
-1.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-4.4%
Up to 20 sessions
CFSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about CF FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did CF fall 4.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in CF's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for CF after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management highlighted progress on decarbonization, including carbon-capture projects, a reported low-carbon ammonia premium in Europe and the Blue Point joint venture. The CEO transition to Chris Bohn was characterized as continuity, while guidance sentiment remained maintained.
Guidance delta
Maintained; no change was identified in the supplied transcript analysis.
Key takeaways
- Management described performance as above mid-cycle expectations, with strong EBITDA and cash generation.
- Low-carbon ammonia, carbon capture and related incentives are central to the decarbonization strategy.
- Blue Point construction is slated to begin in 2026 with JERA and Mitsui as equity partners.
- Management highlighted strong nitrogen demand and constrained supply supporting the outlook through 2026.
- A CEO transition to Chris Bohn was presented as continuity in execution and strategy.
Management priorities
- Begin the modular Blue Point plant construction in 2026.
- Scale carbon capture and sequestration projects at Donaldsonville and Yazoo City.
- Expand DEF sales and low-carbon ammonia offerings.
- Continue share repurchases and focus on high-return growth projects.
- Maintain operational excellence and advance strategic decarbonization initiatives.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$115.51Previous close
$59.5Low
$101.12Average
$162High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rothschild & Co | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 3, 2026 |
| CIBC | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Mar 31, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 18, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 22, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 27, 2025 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 17, 2024 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 4, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 3, 2023 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 26, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 20, 2023 |
| Consumer Edge Research | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Sep 6, 2022 |
| Cleveland Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 12, 2021 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Nov 23, 2020 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Apr 9, 2020 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Mar 2, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 25, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 7, 2019 |
| Citi | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 31, 2019 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 5, 2018 |
| Atlantic Equities | Underweight | Neutral | Downgrade | Nov 14, 2017 |
| CLSA | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 6, 2016 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Mar 28, 2016 |
| Craig-Hallum | Sell | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 17, 2015 |
| Feltl & Co. | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 8, 2014 |
| BGC FInancial | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 21, 2014 |
| Credit Agricole | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | May 10, 2013 |
| Dahlman Rose | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 22, 2013 |
| Topeka Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 8, 2012 |
| Topeka | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 8, 2012 |
| Miller Tabak | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 3, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 7, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $115.51. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redburn Partners | Mazahir Mammadli | $110 | $114.67 | -4.8% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $118.43 | +40.2% | Sep 25, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Salvator Tiano | $115 | $135.11 | -0.4% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $114.35 | +12.5% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Lucas Beaumont | $123 | $116.73 | +6.5% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $129 | $124.2 | +11.7% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Vincent Andrews | $115 | $113.2 | -0.4% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $125 | $105.4 | +8.2% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $115 | +3.9% | May 11, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $128 | $125.71 | +10.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $120.91 | +25.5% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $114.98 | -0.4% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $124.72 | +12.5% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Vincent Andrews | $135 | $126.16 | +16.9% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $97 | $95.45 | -16.0% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $95.79 | -26.4% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $96.27 | -13.4% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $103 | $99.46 | -10.8% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $95 | $95.81 | -17.8% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $92.5 | -37.7% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $89.4 | -29.0% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $86 | $82.43 | -25.5% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $79.01 | -23.8% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $75.84 | -22.1% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| CIBC | Hamir Patel | $87 | $78.88 | -24.7% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $90 | $82.58 | -22.1% | Nov 10, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $100 | $90.69 | -13.4% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $96 | $91.02 | -16.9% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Andrew Wong | $100 | $97.41 | -13.4% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Vincent Andrews | $95 | $91.4 | -17.8% | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $91.4 | -9.1% | Jun 25, 2025 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $87 | $75.54 | -24.7% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $76.31 | -17.8% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $79 | $83.71 | -31.6% | Nov 8, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $77 | $83.76 | -33.3% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Redburn Partners | Mazahir Mammadli | $77 | $85.78 | -33.3% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Steve Byrne | $83 | $85.07 | -28.1% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $93 | $86.81 | -19.5% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $90 | $80.48 | -22.1% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Jackson | $100 | $79.53 | -13.4% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $80 | $71.39 | -30.7% | Jul 23, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $73 | $78.67 | -36.8% | Jun 11, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $73 | $74.25 | -36.8% | May 13, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $75 | $74.99 | -35.1% | May 7, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $80 | $74.42 | -30.7% | May 6, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Jackson | $95 | $74.45 | -17.8% | May 6, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $81 | $81.52 | -29.9% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $85 | $78.78 | -26.4% | Jan 12, 2024 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $119 | $83.9 | +3.0% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $118 | $96.92 | +2.2% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $95.99 | -6.5% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $94.44 | -32.5% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $94.53 | +1.3% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $85.54 | -4.8% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $103 | $86.93 | -10.8% | Jun 18, 2022 |
| Maxim Group | Jason McCarthy | $108.23 | $31.2 | -6.3% | Jun 14, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $95.72 | +14.3% | May 31, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $97.09 | +3.9% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $106.14 | -9.1% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Barclays | Duffy Fischer | $83 | $76.19 | -28.1% | Feb 17, 2022 |
| Berenberg Bank | Adrien Tamagno | $77 | $76.19 | -33.3% | Feb 17, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Chris Parkinson | $81 | $74.42 | -29.9% | Feb 16, 2022 |
| UBS | John Roberts CFA | $85 | $74.42 | -26.4% | Feb 16, 2022 |
| HSBC | Santhosh Seshadri | $59.5 | $44.09 | -48.5% | Aug 20, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Steve Byrne | $68 | $46.47 | -41.1% | Jul 16, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationCF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global producer and distributor of hydrogen and nitrogen-based products. These essential chemicals serve a variety of purposes worldwide, including energy generation, agricultural fertilization, environmental emissions reduction, and numerous other industrial applications. The company's core product lineup features vital nitrogen compounds such as anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and different forms of ammonium nitrate. In addition to these primary offerings, CF Industries also provides specialized chemicals like diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia, alongside complex fertilizers containing nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Its diverse customer base includes agricultural cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, commodity traders, wholesalers, and a wide array of industrial end-users. Founded in 1946, the firm is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
Historical context
All CF earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | -6.2% | Harmony Gold posts record FY2026 while Eva Copper risks remain |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
Get the CF recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T10:00:59.621273+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T10:00:59.618517+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.