Booking Holdings Inc. · BKNG · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

Booking Holdings: AI expansion meets execution and competition risks

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: resilient travel demand, AI integration, merchant payments, alternative accommodations and loyalty could support continued growth, but the thesis depends on converting AI investment into measurable benefits while managing competition and execution risk.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $124.24B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $35.82
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $5.18B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -0.5% Event window
SPY move -1.7% Same window
Abnormal move +1.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -7.5% Up to 20 sessions
BKNGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior analysis, the current analysis shifts the emphasis from initial AI and connected-trip rollout toward execution: scaling travel agents, expanding fintech and alternative accommodations, and delivering the transformation savings plan. The competitive risk from AI agents and the sustainability of airline-ticket growth are more explicit concerns.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its outlook, with the current analysis emphasizing execution of AI, connected-trip, fintech and transformation initiatives.

Key takeaways

  • Management remains focused on scaling AI-powered travel agents and the connected-trip experience.
  • Merchant payments, alternative accommodations, flights and loyalty remain the main growth themes in the supplied analysis.
  • The company plans continued investment in AI, connected-trip and fintech initiatives while pursuing transformation savings.
  • The central debate is whether AI creates measurable efficiencies and revenue without weakening direct customer relationships.

Management priorities

  • Scale AI-powered travel agents and connected-trip capabilities.
  • Expand merchant payments and alternative-accommodation inventory.
  • Execute transformation cost savings while reinvesting in strategic growth.
  • Use loyalty and performance-driven marketing to support direct bookings.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
BKNG REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $5B Q4 '23 actual $5B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $4B Q1 '24 actual $4B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $6B Q2 '24 actual $6B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $8B Q3 '24 actual $8B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $7B Q2 '25 actual $7B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $9B Q3 '25 actual $9B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $6B Q4 '25 actual $6B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $6B Q1 '26 actual $6B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $7B Q2 '26 actual $7B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $10B Q4 '26 estimate $7B Q1 '27 estimate $6B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy71 ratings
Bullish4664.8%
Neutral2535.2%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$158.75Current
$86.84Low
$196.02Average
$309.84High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 12, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 7, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainSep 30, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainSep 24, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 24, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainAug 10, 2026
Show 66 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $158.76. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wells FargoKen Gawrelski$190$157.63 +19.7%Oct 7, 2026
Truist FinancialGregory Miller$216$162.34 +36.1%Sep 30, 2026
Morgan StanleyMatthew Cost$230$171.32 +44.9%Sep 16, 2026
BernsteinRichard Clarke$188$210.48 +18.4%Aug 26, 2026
Evercore ISIMark Mahaney$270$214.39 +70.1%Aug 24, 2026
See 137 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Booking Holdings Inc. is a leading global provider of online travel and dining reservation services. The company manages a portfolio of well-known digital platforms. Among these, Booking.com specializes in online accommodation bookings, while Rentalcars.com is dedicated to facilitating vehicle rentals. Priceline offers a comprehensive range of online travel booking options, encompassing hotels, flights, rental cars, vacation packages, and cruises, alongside hotel distribution services. Agoda also provides online lodging reservations, further expanding into flights, ground transportation, and activity bookings.…

Historical context

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-06T00:01:56.136176+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-12T14:20:41.935742+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-12T14:20:41.933061+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-12. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.