Applied Materials, Inc. · AMAT · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q1 2025

Applied Materials: AI demand offsets China export-control pressure

The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis centered on AI-driven semiconductor demand, advanced packaging and services, but the evidence is tempered by China export controls, cyclical end markets and margin-risk questions.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $421.01B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $2.28
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $7.16B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -8.2% Event window
SPY move -0.0% Same window
Abnormal move -8.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -8.1% Up to 20 sessions
AMATSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The latest analysis adds a roughly $400 million FY2025 China-related revenue headwind from export controls, with half expected in Q2, while maintaining Q2 guidance. It also highlights hybrid bonding, advanced packaging and CHIPS Act-supported R&D as areas of focus.

Guidance delta

Management maintained Q2 FY2025 guidance of $7.1 billion ±$0.4 billion in revenue and $2.30 ±$0.18 in EPS.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted AI-driven semiconductor demand, advanced packaging, HBM and gate-all-around adoption as growth drivers.
  • Export controls were described as a roughly $400 million FY2025 China-related revenue headwind, with half of the impact in Q2.
  • The company emphasized co-innovation, CHIPS Act-funded R&D, hybrid bonding and the EPIC Center as strategic priorities.
  • The analysis characterizes management tone as confident while flagging China exposure, ICAPS demand and margin durability as risks.

Management priorities

  • Expand advanced packaging, hybrid bonding, HBM and gate-all-around solutions
  • Open the EPIC Center in 2026 as a global collaboration platform
  • Grow the AIX data platform and subscription-based service revenue
  • Continue co-innovation partnerships and pursue additional CHIPS Act projects

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
AMAT REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $6B Q1 '24 actual $7B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $7B Q2 '24 actual $7B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $7B Q3 '24 actual $7B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $7B Q3 '25 actual $7B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $7B Q4 '25 actual $7B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $7B Q1 '26 actual $7B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $8B Q2 '26 actual $8B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $9B Q3 '26 actual $9B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $10B Q1 '27 estimate $11B Q2 '27 estimate $11B Q3 '27 estimate $12B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy54 ratings
Bullish4277.8%
Neutral1222.2%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$520.65Current
$85Low
$419.87Average
$900High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 7, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 28, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainSep 1, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 25, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainAug 18, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainAug 14, 2026
Show 49 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $520.65. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$563$479.74 +8.1%Sep 28, 2026
UBSTimothy Arcuri$695$458.39 +33.5%Sep 1, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$590$484.19 +13.3%Aug 25, 2026
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$600$507.69 +15.2%Aug 18, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$850$505.2 +63.3%Aug 14, 2026
See 184 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Applied Materials, Inc. engages in provision of materials engineering solutions used to produce semiconductors. The firm also focuses on design, development, production, and servicing of the critical wafer fabrication tools used for customers to manufacture semiconductors. It operates through the following segments: Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS). The Semiconductor Systems segment includes designing, development, manufacturing and sale of equipment used to fabricate semiconductor chips referred to as integrated circuits. The AGS segment engages in provision of services, spares, and factory automation software to customer fabrication plants globally. The company was founded on November 10, 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.

Historical context

All AMAT earnings

Technology peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-30T00:03:07.291072+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-07T19:50:41.806414+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-07T19:50:41.803627+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-07. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.