Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold25 ratings
Bullish1248.0%
Neutral1248.0%
Bearish14.0%
AGNC Investment Corp. · AGNCL · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
AGNC: Supportive MBS backdrop, with spread and leverage risks
The call supports a constructive near-term operating backdrop for AGNC: management cited tighter agency MBS spreads, lower volatility, GSE buying, and disciplined leverage. That thesis remains dependent on spread stability, policy support, prepayment behavior, and dividend coverage.
Reported After market closeNASDAQReal Estate
$10.43B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.35
Consensus $0.37
EPS surprise
-5.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$944.0M
Consensus $940.8M
Revenue surprise
+0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
0.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+0.2%
Up to 20 sessions
AGNCLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about AGNCL FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove AGNCL's +0.0% move after FY2025 Q4 earnings?What changed in AGNCL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for AGNCL after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management highlighted a shift toward 70% swap-based hedges and leverage of 7.2x tangible equity, alongside a supportive 2026 macro view. The quarter's reported EPS was below consensus, while revenue was slightly above consensus.
Guidance delta
Management guidance sentiment was maintained; the call described a supportive 2026 backdrop but did not provide a quantified guidance change.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted a supportive agency MBS environment and expects potential upside from further policy actions.
- Leverage was 7.2x tangible equity, while hedge composition shifted to 70% swap-based hedges.
- Key watchpoints are spread stability, prepayments, dividend coverage, and GSE and Fed policy.
Management priorities
- Continue deploying capital into high-quality agency MBS pools.
- Maintain a flexible, swap-heavy hedge mix.
- Use liquidity and opportunistic equity issuance while monitoring GSE and Fed actions.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
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Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 17, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 25, 2023 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 25, 2023 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 23, 2023 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 23, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2023 |
| Maxim Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 31, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 15, 2022 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 13, 2022 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 23, 2020 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 8, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 15, 2020 |
| Wells Fargo | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 10, 2017 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 7, 2016 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 2, 2016 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2015 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 26, 2015 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 10, 2013 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 10, 2013 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 6, 2012 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 15, 2012 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 14, 2012 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 2, 2012 |
Track every rating change on AGNCL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAGNC Investment Corp. is a U.S.-based real estate investment trust (REIT). The company primarily invests in residential mortgage-backed securities, specifically pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), where the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by either a U.S. government-sponsored enterprise or a federal agency. These investments are largely funded through collateralized borrowings, commonly structured as repurchase agreements. Having elected REIT tax status under the 1986 Internal Revenue Code, AGNC is exempt from federal corporate income taxes, provided it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. The company, which was established in 2008 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, was formerly known as American Capital Agency Corp. before adopting the AGNC Investment Corp. name in September 2016.
Historical context
All AGNCL earningsReal Estate peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGNCZ AGNC Investment Corp. 8.75% Series H Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | +0.3% | AGNCZ: Q3 loss highlights rate volatility and hedging |
| AGNCO AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | +0.3% | AGNC absorbs Q3 rate shock while defending agency MBS fundamentals |
| AGNCP AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | 0.0% | AGNC sees agency MBS opportunity despite Q3 rate volatility |
| AGNCM AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | -0.3% | AGNC: Attractive MBS spreads offset a difficult quarter |
| AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.6% | +4.1% | AGNC absorbs Q3 rate shock while preserving balance-sheet flexibility |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- HALFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+2.7% EPS+1.8% move
- RTXFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+27.0% EPS+0.6% move
- MMMFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+5.0% EPS+5.8% move
- GPCFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+1.5% EPS-5.1% move
- KEY-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+10.5% EPS— move
- KEY-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 20, 2026+10.5% EPS— move
Missed on EPS
- AGNCZFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS+0.3% move
- AGNCLFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS-0.3% move
- AGNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS+0.3% move
- AGNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS0.0% move
- AGNCMFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-0.6% EPS-0.3% move
- STLDFY2026 Q3 · October 19, 2026-4.0% EPS-0.3% move
Get the AGNCL recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-21T10:30:40.128828+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.