Alamos Gold Inc. · AGI · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Alamos Gold: strong Island Gold, higher costs, expansion on track

The quarter provided evidence for a constructive operating trajectory through Island Gold performance, reserve growth, cash generation, and expansion progress. Evidence against a straightforward bullish conclusion includes above-guidance sustaining costs, a revenue miss versus consensus, Young-Davidson execution issues, and substantial project-capital and inflation exposure.

Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials $11.49B market cap
90quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.54 Consensus $0.54
EPS surprise 0.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $596.7M Consensus $612.3M
Revenue surprise -2.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -2.4% Event window
SPY move +1.0% Same window
Abnormal move -3.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +2.2% Up to 20 sessions
AGISPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Island Gold delivered record underground mining rates and Q1 production met guidance, while all-in sustaining costs exceeded guidance. Management highlighted a 60% dividend increase, opportunistic buybacks, a 32% reserve increase, and continued progress on the Phase III+ shaft and Magino mill expansion; prior-quarter analysis was unavailable.

Guidance delta

Maintained. Management expects all-in sustaining costs to decline 5% in Q2 and improve further in the second half.

Key takeaways

  • Q1 production met guidance, led by record underground mining rates at Island Gold.
  • All-in sustaining costs were above guidance, with improvement expected in Q2 and the second half.
  • Record cash generation supported a 60% dividend increase and planned opportunistic buybacks.
  • The Phase III+ shaft and Magino mill expansion remain on track.
  • Reserve growth and project execution support management’s longer-term production plans, but cost and delivery risks remain.

Management priorities

  • Commission the Island Gold shaft and paste plant by early 2027.
  • Complete the Magino mill expansion to 20,000 tonnes per day by early 2028.
  • Start PDA production in mid-2027 and advance associated sulfide targets.
  • Continue exploration across the company’s districts.
  • Fund growth internally while considering dividends and opportunistic buybacks.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
AGI EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $0.19 Q2 '24 actual $0.24, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.21 Q3 '24 actual $0.19, miss Q2 '25 estimate $0.33 Q2 '25 actual $0.34, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.37 Q3 '25 actual $0.37, match Q4 '25 estimate $0.49 Q4 '25 actual $0.54, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.54 Q1 '26 actual $0.54, match Q2 '26 estimate $0.52 Q2 '26 actual $0.59, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.43 Q3 '26 actual $0.43, match Q4 '26 estimate $0.57 Q1 '27 estimate $0.67 Q2 '27 estimate $0.73 Q3 '27 estimate $0.91
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy12 ratings
Bullish758.3%
Neutral541.7%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$27.45Current
$18Low
$43.8Average
$60High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 16, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainJul 9, 2026
Jefferies Buy BuyMaintainJul 6, 2026
Scotiabank Sector Outperform Sector OutperformMaintainFeb 6, 2026
Credit Suisse Neutral OutperformDowngradeJan 16, 2020
Show 7 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $27.45. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$42$29.68 +53.0%Jul 9, 2026
ScotiabankOvais Habib$60$39.62 +118.6%Feb 6, 2026
ScotiabankOvais Habib$55$44.36 +100.4%Jan 26, 2026
JefferiesFahad Tariq$49$36.08 +78.5%Dec 7, 2025
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$50$32.42 +82.1%Oct 23, 2025
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-01T12:00:41.852777+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-01T12:00:41.849780+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.