Alamos Gold Inc. · AGI · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Alamos Gold: strong Island Gold, higher costs, expansion on track
The quarter provided evidence for a constructive operating trajectory through Island Gold performance, reserve growth, cash generation, and expansion progress. Evidence against a straightforward bullish conclusion includes above-guidance sustaining costs, a revenue miss versus consensus, Young-Davidson execution issues, and substantial project-capital and inflation exposure.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensusMarket reaction
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Island Gold delivered record underground mining rates and Q1 production met guidance, while all-in sustaining costs exceeded guidance. Management highlighted a 60% dividend increase, opportunistic buybacks, a 32% reserve increase, and continued progress on the Phase III+ shaft and Magino mill expansion; prior-quarter analysis was unavailable.
Guidance delta
Maintained. Management expects all-in sustaining costs to decline 5% in Q2 and improve further in the second half.
Key takeaways
- Q1 production met guidance, led by record underground mining rates at Island Gold.
- All-in sustaining costs were above guidance, with improvement expected in Q2 and the second half.
- Record cash generation supported a 60% dividend increase and planned opportunistic buybacks.
- The Phase III+ shaft and Magino mill expansion remain on track.
- Reserve growth and project execution support management’s longer-term production plans, but cost and delivery risks remain.
Management priorities
- Commission the Island Gold shaft and paste plant by early 2027.
- Complete the Magino mill expansion to 20,000 tonnes per day by early 2028.
- Start PDA production in mid-2027 and advance associated sulfide targets.
- Continue exploration across the company’s districts.
- Fund growth internally while considering dividends and opportunistic buybacks.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 16, 2020 |
| Desjardins | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 7, 2018 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jun 27, 2016 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 3, 2016 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Aug 11, 2015 |
| Mackie Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 1, 2014 |
| Jacob Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 1, 2013 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 29, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $27.45. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $29.68 | +53.0% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Ovais Habib | $60 | $39.62 | +118.6% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Ovais Habib | $55 | $44.36 | +100.4% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Fahad Tariq | $49 | $36.08 | +78.5% | Dec 7, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $32.42 | +82.1% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Josh Wolfson | $18 | $14.76 | -34.4% | Apr 23, 2024 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAlamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Toronto, Canada.
Historical context
All AGI earningsBasic Materials peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYB LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -1.2% | +5.0% | LyondellBasell Q3 Earnings: Strong Cash Flow, Cautious Outlook |
| VALE Vale S.A. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -24.6% | +1.9% | Vale balances cost resilience with iron-ore and copper execution risks |
| TECK Teck Resources Limited | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +26.4% | +1.1% | Teck posts strong Q3 as copper growth offsets merger and labor risks |
Latest beats and misses
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- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-01T12:00:41.852777+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-01T12:00:41.849780+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.