Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold36 ratings
Bullish1233.3%
Neutral2261.1%
Bearish25.6%
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company · ADM · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2024
ADM cuts outlook as commodity pressure weighs on Q3 results
ADM's Q3 analysis weakens the near-term earnings case: lower commodity margins, execution issues and a lowered outlook outweigh identified growth opportunities. The recovery thesis depends on operational fixes, automation, portfolio discipline and improved demand in nutrition and renewable fuels.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$38.62B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.09
Consensus $1.24
EPS surprise
-12.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $23.29B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-6.0%
Event window
SPY move
+1.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-7.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.4%
Up to 20 sessions
ADMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ADM FY2024 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ADM fall 6.0% after missing EPS estimates in FY2024 Q3?What changed in ADM's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for ADM after FY2024 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter's confident tone and maintained guidance, the current analysis is cautious: full-year EPS guidance was lowered, commodity pressure broadened, and Decatur East delays continued. Management is responding with automation, cost control and portfolio optimization.
Guidance delta
Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was lowered to $4.50-$5 from the prior quarter's maintained outlook.
Key takeaways
- Weaker commodity prices reduced operating profit across segments, with AS&O down 42% year over year.
- Operational downtime and the delayed Decatur East ramp-up remain material execution issues.
- Management is emphasizing cost discipline, automation, digitalization and portfolio simplification.
- Functional foods, flavors, health and wellness, and renewable fuels remain identified growth areas.
Management priorities
- Scale automation and digitization across plants.
- Complete the Decatur East ramp-up and use Spiritwood near full run-rate.
- Simplify the portfolio through divestitures and rationalization.
- Use stage-gated capital allocation to prioritize higher-return projects.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$80.14Current
$50Low
$73.83Average
$100High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Aug 5, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 6, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | May 8, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 23, 2024 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Roth MKM | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Baird | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 25, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 27, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 27, 2021 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2020 |
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 2, 2020 |
| Monness Crespi Hardt | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 2, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 19, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 8, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 14, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 29, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 12, 2016 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 28, 2016 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 7, 2016 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 7, 2015 |
| Miller Tabak | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2014 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Feb 5, 2014 |
| Standpoint | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 13, 2013 |
| Topeka Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 1, 2012 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 1, 2012 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 2, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $80.14. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $75 | $80.5 | -6.4% | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theuer | $90 | $79.87 | +12.3% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Steven K Haynes | $79 | $79.87 | -1.4% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $85.11 | -25.1% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $95 | $80.24 | +18.5% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $78.02 | +12.3% | May 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $76.61 | -27.6% | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $79.19 | +6.1% | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $67.52 | -15.1% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $63 | $67.39 | -21.4% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Steven Haynes | $50 | $60.2 | -37.6% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $59 | $60.12 | -26.4% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $64 | $62.7 | -20.1% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $60 | $58.27 | -25.1% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Sam Margolin | $74 | $58.27 | -7.7% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Adam Samuelson | $64 | $58.27 | -20.1% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $58 | $57.07 | -27.6% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| CFRA | Arun Sundaram | $67 | $57.07 | -16.4% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $60 | $54.81 | -25.1% | Mar 11, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Sam Margolin | $117 | $84.14 | +46.0% | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $90 | +14.8% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theuer | $95 | $92.18 | +18.5% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Steve Byrne | $100 | $94.46 | +24.8% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $100 | $94.57 | +24.8% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Stephens | Ben Bienvenu | $67 | $62.71 | -16.4% | Oct 12, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Robert Moskow | $60 | $60.46 | -25.1% | Apr 27, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ADM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationArcher-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stands as a major global enterprise in the agricultural sector, focused on the sourcing, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of a wide array of agricultural commodities, finished goods, and essential ingredients. Its expansive operations span numerous countries, including pivotal markets such as the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, alongside a broader international presence. ADM's business is strategically organized into three core divisions: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. The company's foundational activities involve acquiring, storing, cleaning, and distributing various agricultural raw materials, including oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. Beyond raw material handling, ADM is actively engaged in the global import, export, and distribution of agricultural commodities and feed products, complemented by specialized structured trade finance services.…
Historical context
All ADM earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG The Procter & Gamble Company | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +6.4% | +5.6% | P&G: Volume Growth Supports FY2027 Guidance Despite Cost Headwinds |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FCNCAFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+8.2% move
- FCNCNFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+0.2% move
- FCNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- FCNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- RDYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026+24.0% EPS-0.2% move
- SLBFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+3.7% EPS+7.1% move
Missed on EPS
- INFYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026-4.8% EPS-6.6% move
- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
Get the ADM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-25T03:00:44.179308+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-25T03:00:44.175739+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.