Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy32 ratings
Bullish2681.3%
Neutral618.7%
Bearish00.0%
Waste Connections, Inc. · WCN · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Waste Connections: Pricing Strength Supports Maintained Outlook
The current analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: pricing strength, special-waste activity, acquisitions, and early digital-tool benefits support growth, while fuel, volume, regulatory, and execution risks remain material.
Reported After market closeNYSEIndustrials
$46.60B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.23
Consensus $1.19
EPS surprise
+3.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.33B
Consensus $2.32B
Revenue surprise
+0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+7.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+8.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-7.8%
Up to 20 sessions
WCNSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about WCN FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did WCN rise 7.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in WCN's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for WCN after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior analysis, the current quarter added reported Q1 performance above forecasts, 6% core pricing growth, a quantified AI pricing-tool benefit, a roughly $100 million acquisition pipeline, and expanded detail on fuel hedging and Chiquita Canyon remediation.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its full-year outlook; no change was supplied in the current analysis.
Key takeaways
- Management said Q1 revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeded forecasts, with adjusted EBITDA margin up 50 basis points year over year to 32.5%.
- Core solid-waste pricing rose 6% in Q1, providing visibility toward the high end of the full-year 5%–5.5% pricing guidance.
- Management highlighted early AI pricing-tool benefits, an acquisition pipeline, and fuel-cost mitigation through hedges and surcharge mechanisms.
Management priorities
- Advance seven AI initiatives through 2027 and pursue the stated potential margin benefit.
- Bring six additional RNG facilities online by year-end and continue targeted acquisitions.
- Manage fuel exposure, expand rail internalization, and address Chiquita Canyon remediation with EPA involvement.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$184.88Previous close
$145Low
$194.73Average
$220High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 13, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 8, 2026 |
| CIBC | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Jul 22, 2025 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 14, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 15, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 21, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 9, 2022 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 21, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 13, 2020 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 13, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 25, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 14, 2019 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 20, 2018 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 6, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 14, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2015 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 21, 2014 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 24, 2013 |
| Wunderlich | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 24, 2013 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 19, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $184.88. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $184.88 | +10.9% | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $193 | $162.13 | +4.4% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $189 | $152.99 | +2.2% | Oct 9, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $184 | $153.47 | -0.5% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $155.23 | +8.2% | Sep 18, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $176 | $165.71 | -4.8% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $169.35 | +1.1% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $199 | $168.33 | +7.6% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $161.54 | -2.6% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $208 | $167.88 | +12.5% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $218 | $168.89 | +17.9% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Adam Bubes | $211 | $168.89 | +14.1% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sabahat Khan | $210 | $160.85 | +13.6% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Toni Kaplan | $205 | $161.28 | +10.9% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $197 | $161.9 | +6.6% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $212 | $161.09 | +14.7% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $213 | $157.58 | +15.2% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $176 | $157.58 | -4.8% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $205 | $170.15 | +10.9% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $204 | $166.11 | +10.3% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $208 | $167.33 | +12.5% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Connor Cerniglia | $205 | $175.14 | +10.9% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $172.18 | +10.9% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Toni Kaplan | $220 | $176.62 | +19.0% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $202 | $175.3 | +9.3% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Jerry Revich | $186 | $167.39 | +0.6% | Nov 13, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Konark Gupta | $210 | $177.74 | +13.6% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $206 | $177.46 | +11.4% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $178.47 | +5.5% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $178.47 | +4.9% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $169.74 | +2.8% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $208 | $170.2 | +12.5% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $213 | $174.42 | +15.2% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| CIBC | Kevin Chiang | $215 | $186.95 | +16.3% | Jul 25, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $221 | $194.47 | +19.5% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Tobey Sommer | $220 | $192.58 | +19.0% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $195 | $185.79 | +5.5% | Dec 13, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $194 | $181.92 | +4.9% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Bryan Burgmeier | $190 | $175.66 | +2.8% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Derek Spronck | $196 | $168.01 | +6.0% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $180 | $171.74 | -2.6% | Mar 18, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Toni Kaplan | $160 | $125.32 | -13.5% | Jul 2, 2022 |
| UBS | Jon Windham | $150 | $135.52 | -18.9% | Oct 29, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Kyle White, CFA | $145 | $135.52 | -21.6% | Oct 29, 2021 |
| KeyBanc | Sean Eastman | $146 | $132.48 | -21.0% | Oct 21, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Michael E. Hoffman | $154 | $125.04 | -16.7% | Aug 6, 2021 |
Track every rating change on WCN the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationWaste Connections, Inc. is a leading environmental services provider that delivers a full spectrum of non-hazardous waste management solutions, including collection, transfer, disposal, and resource recovery, across both the United States and Canada. The company offers essential waste collection services to a diverse customer base, spanning residential, commercial, municipal, industrial, and exploration and production (E&P) sectors. Beyond collection, their operations encompass landfill management for final waste disposition and comprehensive recycling programs for a wide array of materials, such as compostables, cardboard, mixed paper, plastic containers, glass bottles, and both ferrous and aluminum metals. Waste Connections also maintains and operates a network of transfer stations, which efficiently receive, compact, and load waste for subsequent transport—by truck, rail, or barge—to either landfills or specialized treatment facilities.…
Historical context
All WCN earningsIndustrials peers this season
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| LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +6.0% | +7.0% | Lockheed Martin: backlog and guidance rise, with execution risks |
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| POOL Pool Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.2% | +14.4% | POOL: Q3 growth held up as freight costs pressured margins |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- SSNCFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+0.6% EPS+2.8% move
- BEFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+36.0% EPS-8.7% move
- ROPFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+1.7% EPS+9.7% move
- BPOPFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+5.8% EPS-2.8% move
- HONFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.7% move
- BXFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+4.8% EPS+8.4% move
Missed on EPS
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
- HBANPFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS0.0% move
- PCGFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-0.8% EPS-1.3% move
Get the WCN recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-23T09:20:40.326371+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-23T09:20:40.323181+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.