Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy22 ratings
Bullish2090.9%
Neutral29.1%
Bearish00.0%
Vistra Corp. · VST · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Vistra Q1 2026: Record $1.49B EBITDA Beat, Cogentrix Acquisition Pending
Vistra delivered record calendar-Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $1.494 billion, up roughly 20% year-over-year, with EPS of $2.87 versus $1.32 estimated (a 117% surprise) and revenue of $5.64 billion versus $5.22 billion expected. Management attributed the performance to strong generation and diversified retail operations despite mild weather and a winter storm. Both 2026 and 2027 guidance were reaffirmed, with the outlook explicitly excluding the pending 5,500 MW Cogentrix acquisition and new Meta PPAs, making current guidance a conservative baseline. Despite the beat, the stock declined 2.4% on the report day (versus a 0.3% benchmark move) on roughly 2x normal volume, with a further 3.4% drift in subsequent sessions. At $142.81, shares trade well below the $221.78 consensus target. The divergence between reported fundamentals and market pricing warrants attention as Cogentrix closes and Meta…
Reported Before market openNYSEUtilities
$50.12B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationVistra Corp., along with its various holdings, functions as a unified entity primarily engaged in retail electricity supply and power generation. The company organizes its operations across six distinct segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It directly provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial clients throughout 20 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.87
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+117.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.64B
Consensus $5.22B
Revenue surprise
+8.1%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$142.81Current
$116Low
$211.84Average
$298High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 12, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 12, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 3, 2021 |
| Vertical Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 25, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 7, 2019 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 17, 2019 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 9, 2019 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 5, 2018 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 8, 2017 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $142.81. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | William Appicelli | $227 | $150.7 | +59.0% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $298 | $159.23 | +108.7% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $210 | $164.26 | +47.0% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Sunaina Ocalan | $187 | $158.61 | +30.9% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $153.93 | +61.1% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $212 | $148.51 | +48.4% | May 21, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $190 | $144 | +33.0% | May 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $208 | $163.61 | +45.6% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $208 | $156.31 | +45.6% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $241 | $172.43 | +68.8% | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $215 | $171.4 | +50.5% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $203 | $152.97 | +42.1% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Carly Davenport | $205 | $143.07 | +43.5% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $227 | $156.6 | +59.0% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $236 | $166.6 | +65.3% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Andrew Weisel | $293 | $176.29 | +105.2% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $233 | $174.57 | +63.2% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $244 | $166.37 | +70.9% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $232 | $166.8 | +62.5% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $230 | $162.93 | +61.1% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $228 | $172.72 | +59.7% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $175.14 | +52.0% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $176.4 | +57.6% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $238 | $199.3 | +66.7% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $202.72 | +69.5% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $236 | $202.42 | +65.3% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $223 | $201.62 | +56.2% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Andrew Weisel | $256 | $217.92 | +79.3% | Sep 22, 2025 |
| Daiwa | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $208.31 | +75.1% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $207 | $190.28 | +44.9% | Aug 21, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $229 | $208.64 | +60.4% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $241 | $202.12 | +68.8% | Aug 8, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Durgesh Chopra | $192 | $152.06 | +34.4% | May 15, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $134 | $98.07 | -6.2% | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Daiwa | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $126.87 | -16.0% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $141 | $132.45 | -1.3% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $137 | $111.63 | -4.1% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $132 | $107.88 | -7.6% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $125 | $91.74 | -12.5% | Sep 19, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $99 | $80.47 | -30.7% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $120 | $79.08 | -16.0% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Angie Storozynski | $116 | $88.4 | -18.8% | Jun 13, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $121 | $93.46 | -15.3% | Jun 3, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $110 | $105.92 | -23.0% | May 28, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $109 | $95.24 | -23.7% | May 10, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $95 | $83.24 | -33.5% | May 7, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $24.09 | -78.3% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $28 | $24.3 | -80.4% | May 9, 2022 |
Track every rating change on VST the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.7%
Event window
SPY move
-0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-3.4%
Up to 20 sessions
VSTSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter (full-year 2025 results reported in Q4 2025): Vistra posted full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $5.9 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $3.6 billion. In Q1 2026, the momentum continued with a record calendar-Q1 EBITDA of $1.494 billion, up approximately 20% year-over-year. New developments in Q1 2026 include: (1) the 5,500 MW Cogentrix natural gas acquisition announced in the first week of 2026, building on the prior quarter's Lotus Infrastructure deal (7 gas plants); (2) investment-grade credit ratings from both Fitch and S&P, an upgrade from prior quarters; (3) a $525 million accelerated share repurchase in the first four months, bringing total shareholder returns to approximately $600 million year-to-date; (4) new partnership mentions including Emerald AI for flexible load solutions and NVIDIA pilot projects for flexible generation. Both quarters featured confident management tone and maintained guidance sentiment, with an increasing capex outlook. The prior quarter highlighted a forward free cash flow per share target of $22-$25 by 2030 and 3.8 GW of contracted nuclear capacity with Amazon and Meta; the current quarter reinforced the…
Guidance delta
Guidance for 2026 and 2027 was reaffirmed. Management explicitly stated that current outlook excludes the pending Cogentrix acquisition (5,500 MW natural gas portfolio, expected to close in H2 2026) and new Meta PPAs. Guidance will be updated upon Cogentrix close. Capex outlook remains increasing, consistent with the prior quarter. The prior quarter noted a free cash flow per share target of $22-$25 by 2030 if excess cash is allocated to share repurchases.
Key takeaways
- Record calendar-Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $1.494 billion, up approximately 20% year-over-year.
- EPS of $2.87 versus $1.32 consensus estimate, a 117% surprise. Revenue of $5.64 billion versus $5.22 billion estimated, an 8.1% beat.
- 2026 and 2027 guidance reaffirmed; outlook excludes pending Cogentrix acquisition and new Meta PPAs.
- Cogentrix acquisition adds 5,500 MW of natural gas generation capacity; close expected in H2 2026.
- Investment-grade credit ratings achieved from both Fitch and S&P, enhancing financial flexibility.
- Approximately $600 million returned to shareholders year-to-date through accelerated share repurchases and dividends.
Management priorities
- Close Cogentrix acquisition in H2 2026 and update guidance thereafter.
- Advance nuclear uprates at Beaver Valley and Comanche Peak with PPAs.
- Develop and bring online organic projects (Oak Hill 2, Newton, Pulaski) by 2028.
- Expand gas capacity in Permian and Texas, including coal-to-gas conversions.
- Continue shareholder return program through share repurchases and dividends.
Related earnings events
UtilitiesSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T21:21:54.133143+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T21:21:54.129903+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.