Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold36 ratings
Bullish1233.3%
Neutral2055.6%
Bearish411.1%
Vale S.A. · VALE · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Vale’s strong operating performance was tempered by an EPS miss
Vale’s Q4 operating delivery and cost reductions support a constructive view of its earnings capacity, but the EPS miss and exposure to commodity prices, currency, and by-product credits leave the thesis dependent on execution and cost durability.
Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials
$48.47B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-0.90
Consensus $0.57
EPS surprise
-257.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$11.06B
Consensus $10.90B
Revenue surprise
+1.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-2.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-9.6%
Up to 20 sessions
VALESPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about VALE FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did VALE fall 2.3% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in VALE's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for VALE after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The supplied analysis describes production above guidance in iron ore, copper, and nickel, with record-low all-in costs and continued project progress. Reported EPS missed consensus while revenue modestly exceeded it, creating a mixed picture between operating indicators and reported results.
Guidance delta
Management maintained guidance; the supplied analysis reports no change to 2026 guidance.
Key takeaways
- Production exceeded guidance across iron ore, copper, and nickel, according to the call analysis.
- The analysis highlights lower costs, including negative copper all-in cost and a year-over-year reduction in nickel cost.
- Free cash flow and shareholder remuneration were emphasized in the analysis.
- Reported EPS missed consensus even as revenue modestly exceeded consensus.
Management priorities
- Deliver growth projects including Novo Carajás, Bacaba, Onça Puma furnace 2, and Voisey’s Bay.
- Continue cost reduction and operational-excellence efforts.
- Advance safety and tailings-dam remediation.
- Maintain disciplined capital allocation while meeting 2026 guidance.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$11.34Current
$11.5Low
$16.84Average
$25High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Oct 19, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 13, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Sep 9, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 20, 2026 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 6, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 28, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 8, 2022 |
| BNP Paribas | Underperform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 12, 2021 |
| Itau BBA | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 8, 2020 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 17, 2020 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 24, 2019 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 1, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 5, 2017 |
| BTG Pactual | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 28, 2017 |
| Renaissance Capital | Market Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Jan 12, 2017 |
| Societe Generale | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 9, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 2, 2016 |
| CLSA | Sell | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 14, 2016 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 17, 2016 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 10, 2016 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 10, 2016 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 4, 2015 |
| Clarksons Platou | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 13, 2014 |
| Clarkson Capital Markets | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 13, 2014 |
| BBA Securities | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $11.34. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $13.2 | +32.3% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $13.52 | +32.3% | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $15.5 | $13.68 | +36.7% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $12.5 | $15.56 | +10.2% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $16.5 | $14.79 | +45.5% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $14.05 | +32.3% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $16.5 | $14.69 | +45.5% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $19 | $16.31 | +67.5% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Alfonso Salazar | $18 | $16.38 | +58.7% | May 27, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $16.2 | +58.7% | May 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $17.78 | +49.9% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $17.68 | +49.9% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $19.5 | $16.74 | +72.0% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $16 | $15.03 | +41.1% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $15.5 | $16.65 | +36.7% | Feb 16, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Alfonso Salazar | $16.5 | $16.66 | +45.5% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $16.94 | +58.7% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $15.5 | $14.26 | +36.7% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $14.26 | +32.3% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $13 | $13.15 | +14.6% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $12.77 | +32.3% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Ben Davis | $14.2 | $12.8 | +25.2% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $12 | $12.9 | +5.8% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $12 | $12.2 | +5.8% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LeFemina | $15 | $12.09 | +32.3% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $13.5 | $11.11 | +19.0% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Barclays | Amos Fletcher | $13.8 | $11.03 | +21.7% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $11.5 | $11.04 | +1.4% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $11 | $11.04 | -3.0% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $11 | $11.14 | -3.0% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $10.86 | +23.5% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Barclays | Amos Fletcher | $13.7 | $10.87 | +20.8% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $10 | $9.85 | -11.8% | Aug 4, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Alfonso Salazar | $13 | $8.65 | +14.6% | Jan 6, 2025 |
| UBS | Myles Allsop | $11.5 | $10.8 | +1.4% | Nov 11, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Alexander Pearce | $13 | $10.92 | +14.6% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Alfonso Salazar | $16 | $11.1 | +41.1% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Alexander Hacking | $15 | $11.45 | +32.3% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| UBS | Myles Allsop | $14.5 | $11.61 | +27.9% | Jul 5, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Marcio Farid | $16 | $11.61 | +41.1% | Jul 3, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | Alan Spence | $12.7 | $11.29 | +12.0% | Jun 21, 2024 |
| UBS | Myles Allsop | $15 | $12.59 | +32.3% | May 7, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Marcio Farid | $19.5 | $15.9 | +72.0% | Nov 21, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Tyler Broda | $15 | $13.74 | +32.3% | Jun 6, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $16.43 | +76.4% | Dec 9, 2022 |
| BNP Paribas | Sylvain Brunet | $16 | $13.56 | +41.1% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $24 | $15.85 | +111.6% | Jun 14, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $16.7 | +58.7% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $18.77 | +76.4% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Liam Fitzpatrick | $22 | $20.1 | +94.0% | Apr 9, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $23 | $17.75 | +102.8% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Chris Terry | $20 | $19.07 | +76.4% | Mar 13, 2022 |
| BNP Paribas | Sylvain Brunet | $20.5 | $17.85 | +80.8% | Feb 10, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $16 | $16.55 | +41.1% | Feb 6, 2022 |
| HSBC | Jonathan Brandt | $17.25 | $15.53 | +52.1% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Tyler Broda | $17 | $15.6 | +49.9% | Jan 22, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jason Fairclough | $17 | $11.92 | +49.9% | Nov 30, 2021 |
| BTG Pactual | Leonardo Correa | $22 | $12.19 | +94.0% | Nov 11, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Caio Ribeiro | $24 | $15.8 | +111.6% | Sep 9, 2021 |
| Scotiabank | Alfonso Salazar | $26 | $19.53 | +129.3% | Jul 12, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | David Gagliano | $25 | $18.08 | +120.5% | Apr 29, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Alexander Hacking | $22 | $17.99 | +94.0% | Apr 28, 2021 |
Track every rating change on VALE the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationOperating globally and within Brazil, Vale S.A. is a major producer and seller of essential raw materials, including iron ore, iron ore pellets, nickel, and copper. Its operations are organized into two primary segments. The Iron Solutions segment is dedicated to the extraction and production of iron ore, pellets, and various other ferrous products, also providing crucial logistics services. Meanwhile, the Energy Transition Materials segment specializes in mining nickel, along with its valuable by-products such as gold, silver, cobalt, and other precious metals. This segment also handles copper, primarily used in construction for piping and electrical cables. Established in 1942, the company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce before officially rebranding as Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Historical context
All VALE earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYB LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -1.2% | +5.0% | LyondellBasell Q3 Earnings: Strong Cash Flow, Cautious Outlook |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- SNYFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+30.8% EPS+2.8% move
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- PINSFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-5.4% EPS-2.8% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
Get the VALE recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-02T21:20:45.634718+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-02T21:20:45.631953+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.