Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy47 ratings
Bullish2961.7%
Neutral1736.2%
Bearish12.1%
Union Pacific Corporation · UNP · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Union Pacific pairs record operating execution with softer volume outlook
Union Pacific's Q3 results support the view that earnings growth can be sustained by pricing, productivity, favorable mix, and operational execution. The case is moderated by expected fourth-quarter volume weakness, merger approval and integration uncertainty, and financing-related concerns.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$161.67B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.08
Consensus $2.99
EPS surprise
+3.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.24B
Consensus $6.25B
Revenue surprise
-0.1%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+0.5%
Up to 20 sessions
UNPSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about UNP FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did UNP fall 2.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in UNP's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for UNP after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current quarter added a best-ever 58.5% operating ratio, a $1 billion debt reduction, a pause in share repurchases, and more detail on the Norfolk Southern merger process. Management also introduced a roughly 6% fourth-quarter volume decline outlook, particularly for international intermodal, while maintaining guidance sentiment.
Guidance delta
Maintained; management also pointed to a roughly 6% fourth-quarter volume dip, especially in international intermodal.
Key takeaways
- Q3 adjusted EPS was $3.08, up 12% year over year, while the operating ratio reached a best-ever 58.5%.
- Management highlighted record productivity and safety metrics, favorable pricing mix, and a $1 billion debt reduction.
- The Norfolk Southern merger is progressing, while share repurchases are paused for debt reduction and capital discipline.
- Management expects fourth-quarter volumes to dip roughly 6%, particularly in international intermodal.
Management priorities
- Maintain operational performance and safety focus
- Pursue volume wins through new facilities and Gulf Coast petrochemical contracts
- Advance Norfolk Southern merger preparations and seek network synergies
- Continue capital investment and productivity initiatives
- Deliver 2026 plan targets for EPS growth and operating ratio
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$272.42Current
$177Low
$274Average
$363High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 2, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Redburn Atlantic | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 14, 2025 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 27, 2023 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 27, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 25, 2023 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 24, 2020 |
| TD Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 18, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 5, 2019 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2019 |
| Scotiabank | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 1, 2018 |
| Daiwa Capital | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 11, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 18, 2017 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 18, 2017 |
| Aegis Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 24, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Jun 16, 2016 |
| CLSA | Sell | Sell | Maintain | May 19, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 22, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 1, 2015 |
| Avondale Partners | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 24, 2015 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 7, 2015 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 10, 2014 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 27, 2014 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 16, 2014 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 11, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $272.42. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $326 | $275.7 | +19.7% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $339 | $283.99 | +24.4% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Daniel Moore | $344 | $307.32 | +26.3% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $339 | $304.06 | +24.4% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $310 | $303.7 | +13.8% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $304.33 | +17.5% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $335 | $304.33 | +23.0% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $304.33 | +28.5% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $317 | $304.33 | +16.4% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Harrison Bauer | $333 | $288.99 | +22.2% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $363 | $289 | +33.3% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $294 | $259.96 | +7.9% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Harrison Bauer | $305 | $272.35 | +12.0% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $269.42 | +13.8% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $274 | $269.6 | +0.6% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $269.98 | +4.6% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $277 | $269.95 | +1.7% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $271.26 | +6.1% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $300 | $271.26 | +10.1% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $315 | $271.26 | +15.6% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $239.19 | +0.2% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Dan Moore | $311 | $260.2 | +14.2% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $295 | $265 | +8.3% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $232.55 | -2.0% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $255 | $233.62 | -6.4% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $236.76 | +2.8% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $239.93 | +4.6% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Richa Harnain | $245 | $235.46 | -10.1% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $263 | $220.04 | -3.5% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $253 | $234.52 | -7.1% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $272 | $232 | -0.2% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $227 | $216.78 | -16.7% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $270 | $231.14 | -0.9% | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $260 | $227.91 | -4.6% | Jun 24, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $295 | $249.31 | +8.3% | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $200 | $243.02 | -26.6% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $265 | $225.21 | -2.7% | Jan 10, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $265 | $230.54 | -2.7% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $275 | $242.31 | +0.9% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $247 | $248.96 | -9.3% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ken Hoexter | $270 | $244 | -0.9% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ken Hoexter | $273 | $243.68 | +0.2% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $275 | $243.53 | +0.9% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $280 | $243.85 | +2.8% | Sep 11, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $280 | $235.35 | +2.8% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $265 | $242.92 | -2.7% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $238 | $222.1 | -12.6% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $267 | $237.69 | -2.0% | May 2, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $248 | $236.16 | -9.0% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $250 | $242.01 | -8.2% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $255 | $244.63 | -6.4% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $280 | $243.11 | +2.8% | Jan 22, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | $210 | $207.28 | -22.9% | Feb 27, 2023 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ken Hoexter | $241 | $212.16 | -11.5% | Feb 27, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $179 | $214.44 | -34.3% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $212.28 | -15.6% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $208.16 | -26.6% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $232 | $205.41 | -14.8% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Amit Mehrotra | $238 | $208.52 | -12.6% | Nov 28, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Ariel Rosa | $232 | $190.53 | -14.8% | Oct 21, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $177 | $190.53 | -35.0% | Oct 21, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $200 | $186.45 | -26.6% | Oct 20, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $250 | $186.45 | -8.2% | Oct 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $199.03 | -31.4% | Oct 3, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors Majors | $208 | $199.23 | -23.6% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $199.1 | -22.9% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Daiwa | Jairam Nathan | $242 | $239.07 | -11.2% | Aug 26, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $240 | $227.08 | -11.9% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $225 | $217.38 | -17.4% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Amit Mehrotra | $232 | $213.4 | -14.8% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $236 | $213.67 | -13.4% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $207 | $213.63 | -24.0% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $232 | $211.78 | -14.8% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $218 | $205.52 | -20.0% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $236 | $205.87 | -13.4% | Jul 12, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $210.29 | -8.2% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $210.29 | -22.9% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $235 | $207.81 | -13.7% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $244.4 | +4.6% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $244.4 | -2.0% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $276 | $244.4 | +1.3% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Garrett Holland | $280 | $244.4 | +2.8% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $310 | $241.98 | +13.8% | Apr 9, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $276 | $245.13 | +1.3% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Scott Group | $287 | $245.13 | +5.4% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Benjamin Nolan | $252 | $240.89 | -7.5% | Jan 20, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $270 | $240.89 | -0.9% | Jan 20, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $261 | $240.89 | -4.2% | Jan 20, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Ariel Rosa | $264 | $245.8 | -3.1% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Christian Wetherbee | $287 | $251.56 | +5.4% | Jan 5, 2022 |
| Stephens | Justin Long | $278 | $250.8 | +2.0% | Jan 4, 2022 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $279 | $244.75 | +2.4% | Dec 15, 2021 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $215 | $239.97 | -21.1% | Oct 28, 2021 |
| TD Securities | Cherilyn Radbourne | $245 | $235.31 | -10.1% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Benchmark Co. | Mark Levin | $255 | $235.31 | -6.4% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rick Paterson | $252 | $201.46 | -7.5% | Sep 14, 2021 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $250 | $217.02 | -8.2% | Jul 26, 2021 |
Track every rating change on UNP the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationUnion Pacific Corporation, a prominent American railway enterprise, conducts its primary operations through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company. The company provides extensive freight transportation services for a wide array of commodities. Its diverse cargo includes agricultural products like grain, fertilizers, and refrigerated foods; energy resources such as coal, renewables, petroleum, and liquid petroleum gases; and industrial materials encompassing construction products, chemicals, plastics, forest products, metals, ores, soda ash, and sand.…
Historical context
All UNP earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
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Get the UNP recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T22:16:06.266988+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T22:16:06.264095+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.