Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy46 ratings
Bullish3167.4%
Neutral1532.6%
Bearish00.0%
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. · UAL · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
United outlines higher 2025 EPS outlook amid capacity and labor risks
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: resilient international and business-travel demand, capacity discipline, premium products, and loyalty growth underpin management's higher outlook, while labor, fleet-delivery, and execution risks could limit the trajectory.
Reported After market closeNASDAQIndustrials
$33.51B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $3.01
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $14.34B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-4.6%
Event window
SPY move
+0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-6.9%
Up to 20 sessions
UALSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about UAL FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove UAL's -4.6% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in UAL's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for UAL after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the outlook moved from maintained to raised. The current analysis adds 2025 EPS guidance of $11.5-$13.5, emphasizes margin expansion and below-$7 billion capex, and places greater focus on gauge expansion, Starlink rollout, MileagePlus, and media revenue.
Guidance delta
Management raised its outlook, projecting 2025 EPS of $11.5-$13.5, about 18% growth, with capex below $7 billion.
Key takeaways
- Management described 2024 as a record year, citing $10.61 EPS and a 3.5-point year-over-year increase in pretax margin.
- The growth case centers on international and business travel demand, capacity discipline, premium products, and loyalty revenue.
- Digital investments, Starlink Wi-Fi, larger narrow-body aircraft, and hub optimization are intended to support service differentiation and unit-cost improvement.
Management priorities
- Execute United Next through hub optimization and selective capacity deployment.
- Expand Starlink Wi-Fi, digital customer experiences, and premium-cabin upgrades.
- Grow MileagePlus and media revenue while managing leverage, fleet timing, and labor costs.
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Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$103.23Previous close
$33Low
$113.52Average
$190High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Rothschild & Co | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 15, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 2, 2025 |
| Redburn Atlantic | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | May 17, 2024 |
| Redburn Partners | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 7, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Outperform | Underperform | Upgrade | Mar 7, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 22, 2021 |
| MKM Partners | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 10, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 12, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 26, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 27, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 24, 2020 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 6, 2019 |
| Imperial Capital | In Line | Underperform | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 17, 2019 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 18, 2018 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 18, 2018 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 18, 2017 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 24, 2017 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 22, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 22, 2016 |
| CRT Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 27, 2015 |
| Avondale Partners | Market Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Oct 15, 2014 |
| Dahlman Rose | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 8, 2013 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 26, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 30, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $103.23. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $110 | +55.0% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $113.99 | +35.6% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $146 | $110.42 | +41.4% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | James Goodall | $150 | $107.64 | +45.3% | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $160 | $106.49 | +55.0% | Sep 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $137 | $107.12 | +32.7% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $155 | $115.41 | +50.2% | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $165 | $118.81 | +59.8% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $190 | $118.81 | +84.1% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $172 | $132.5 | +66.6% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $135.07 | +79.2% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Catherine O'Brien | $162 | $135.13 | +56.9% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $134.8 | +48.2% | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $135.19 | +59.8% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $175 | $130.54 | +69.5% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $118.68 | +48.2% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $182 | $111.24 | +76.3% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $106.08 | +43.4% | May 26, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $112 | $91.9 | +8.5% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $139 | $90.96 | +34.7% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $92.85 | +25.9% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $91.71 | +30.8% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $148 | $109.96 | +43.4% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $136 | $107.76 | +31.7% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $135 | $113.77 | +30.8% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $132.5 | $110.96 | +28.4% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $147 | $110.96 | +42.4% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Catherine O'Brien | $129 | $115.29 | +25.0% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $117.32 | +45.3% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $117.26 | +45.3% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $150 | $116.88 | +45.3% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $116.42 | +40.5% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $110.27 | +40.5% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $108.4 | +37.6% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $104.5 | +21.1% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Sergey Glinyanov | $110 | $100.45 | +6.6% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $140 | $98.88 | +35.6% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $128 | $98.19 | +24.0% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $98.19 | +30.8% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $100.12 | +25.9% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $94.83 | +11.4% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $115 | $96.5 | +11.4% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $95.03 | +21.1% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $97.91 | +30.8% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $131 | $98.13 | +26.9% | Sep 26, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Duane Pfennigwerth | $105 | $91.22 | +1.7% | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $94 | $88.94 | -8.9% | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Tom Fitzgerald | $88 | $66.97 | -14.8% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $59 | $60.23 | -42.8% | Apr 7, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $68.2 | -22.5% | Apr 1, 2025 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $140 | $72.19 | +35.6% | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $130 | $108.67 | +25.9% | Feb 4, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Catherine O’Brien | $119 | $91.16 | +15.3% | Nov 15, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $95 | $74.15 | -8.0% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $88 | $72.02 | -14.8% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $85 | $72.02 | -17.7% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Daniel McKenzie | $97 | $72.02 | -6.0% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $85 | $72.02 | -17.7% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Duane Pfennigwerth | $85 | $72.02 | -17.7% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Michael Linenberg | $80 | $64.05 | -22.5% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $75 | $64.05 | -27.3% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $66 | $61.8 | -36.1% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Redburn Partners | James Goodall | $70 | $53.56 | -32.2% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $65 | $50.64 | -37.0% | May 29, 2024 |
| HSBC | Achal Kumar | $69.2 | $52.72 | -33.0% | May 13, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $60 | $48.74 | -41.9% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $60 | $48.46 | -41.9% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $52 | $47.35 | -49.6% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $50 | $44.89 | -51.6% | Mar 25, 2024 |
| UBS | Atul Maheswari | $47 | $43.91 | -54.5% | Mar 19, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Savanthi Syth | $70 | $39.92 | -32.2% | Oct 17, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Savanthi Syth | $76 | $57.61 | -26.4% | Jul 21, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $36.14 | -45.8% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $36.83 | -27.3% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $43 | $41.68 | -58.3% | Jul 20, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $36.69 | -56.4% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| BNP Paribas | James Hollins | $33 | $36.54 | -68.0% | Jul 7, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $37.78 | -56.4% | Jun 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Savanthi Syth | $48 | $35.66 | -53.5% | Jun 23, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $52.08 | -42.8% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $51.95 | -35.1% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $86.5 | $50.85 | -16.2% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $58 | $50.85 | -43.8% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Michael Linenberg | $60 | $50.85 | -41.9% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Duane Pfennigwerth | $50 | $50.85 | -51.6% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $45.95 | -50.6% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| BNP Paribas | James Hollins | $38 | $43.86 | -63.2% | Mar 28, 2022 |
| Redburn Partners | James Goodall | $35 | $42.82 | -66.1% | Feb 6, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $55 | $41.65 | -46.7% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jamie Baker | $63 | $41.65 | -39.0% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Michael Linenberg | $60 | $44.4 | -41.9% | Jan 19, 2022 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $73 | $47.31 | -29.3% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Conor Cunningham | $54 | $45.49 | -47.7% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Helane Becker | $78 | $46.72 | -24.4% | Oct 21, 2021 |
| UBS | Myles Walton | $58 | $46.72 | -43.8% | Oct 21, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Catherine O'Brien | $65 | $50.22 | -37.0% | Oct 6, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Joseph DeNardi | $54 | $47.95 | -47.7% | Jul 22, 2021 |
Track every rating change on UAL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, delivers air travel solutions on a global scale. Its vast network extends across North America, Europe, Asia, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America, facilitating the movement of both passengers and freight. The company operates these services using a combination of its primary and regional aircraft fleets. Beyond its core transportation offerings, United also provides specialized support to external clients, encompassing catering, ground handling, aviation training, and aircraft maintenance. Established in 1968, the enterprise has its principal offices in Chicago, Illinois. Notably, it adopted its current name, United Airlines Holdings, Inc., in June 2019, having previously operated as United Continental Holdings, Inc.
Historical context
All UAL earningsIndustrials peers this season
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| SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +19.2% | +5.9% | Sunbelt raises FY27 outlook as specialty rental demand accelerates |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
Missed on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-21T16:51:53.207622+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-14T09:30:45.083325+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-14T09:30:45.081246+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-14. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.