Texas Instruments Incorporated · TXN · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Texas Instruments: Data-center growth lifts Q4, inventory bears watching

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: resilient analog demand, data-center growth and strong cash generation provide support, while elevated inventory, margin sensitivity and substantial fab investment temper the outlook.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $255.79B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.27 Consensus $1.29
EPS surprise -1.6% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $4.42B Consensus $4.44B
Revenue surprise -0.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +9.9% Event window
SPY move -0.0% Same window
Abnormal move +9.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -1.6% Up to 20 sessions
TXNSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Data center was reorganized as a distinct end-market category, with management highlighting roughly 70% year-over-year growth in that business. The supplied analysis also noted a $670 million CHIPS Act cash benefit and Sherman fab progress ahead of schedule.

Guidance delta

Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $4.32-$4.68 billion and EPS guidance of $1.22-$1.48 were described as modestly above seasonal expectations; prior-quarter analysis characterized guidance sentiment as maintained.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted Q4 revenue of $4.4 billion, with analog up 14% year over year and data-center revenue up about 70%.
  • Industrial, automotive and data-center markets represented about 75% of 2025 revenue in the supplied analysis.
  • Free cash flow grew 96% year over year to $2.9 billion, while 2026 capex was projected at $2-$3 billion.
  • The company is expanding Sherman 300-mm capacity and transitioning Lehigh to 45-nm technology for automotive radar.

Management priorities

  • Complete the Sherman fab build-out and increase 300-mm capacity.
  • Transition the Lehigh fab to 45-nm technology for automotive radar.
  • Expand the data-center product portfolio and sample new parts.
  • Maintain disciplined capital allocation focused on free cash flow per share.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TXN EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $1.07 Q1 '24 actual $1.20, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1.17 Q2 '24 actual $1.22, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.38 Q3 '24 actual $1.47, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1.36 Q2 '25 actual $1.41, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1.49 Q3 '25 actual $1.48, match Q4 '25 estimate $1.29 Q4 '25 actual $1.27, miss Q1 '26 estimate $1.36 Q1 '26 actual $1.68, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.91 Q2 '26 actual $2.14, beat Q3 '26 estimate $2.42 Q4 '26 estimate $2.29 Q1 '27 estimate $2.30 Q2 '27 estimate $2.54
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold64 ratings
Bullish3046.9%
Neutral2843.7%
Bearish69.4%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$280.09Previous close
$140Low
$249.71Average
$405High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Cantor Fitzgerald Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 17, 2026
Rosenblatt Buy BuyMaintainJul 24, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 23, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainJul 23, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainJul 23, 2026
Show 59 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $280.09. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Arete ResearchAlexi de Unger$405$277.07 +44.6%Jul 29, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$380$284.02 +35.7%Jul 23, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesVijay Rakesh$305$284.47 +8.9%Jul 23, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$385$283.33 +37.5%Jul 23, 2026
Evercore ISIMark Lipacis$330$284.18 +17.8%Jul 23, 2026
See 132 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TI) specializes in the global design, production, and sale of semiconductors to electronics engineers and manufacturers. Its operations are structured into two core segments: Analog and Embedded Processing. The Analog division provides a comprehensive suite of power management products, such as battery-management solutions, various DC/DC and AC/DC switching regulators and controllers, power switches, linear regulators, voltage supervisors, references, and lighting components, all critical for managing diverse power needs. This segment also delivers signal chain products designed to sense, condition, and measure electrical signals, facilitating information transfer or conversion for further processing and control, encompassing items like amplifiers, data converters, interface devices, motor drives, clocks, and sensing…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T07:56:07.168911+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T07:56:07.166077+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.