Texas Instruments Incorporated · TXN · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

Texas Instruments: Growth Holds, but Margins and Q4 Outlook Weigh

The quarter supports a measured version of the growth thesis: demand across analog, embedded processing, industrial and data-center markets remained constructive, and cash generation was strong. The counterweight is that margin pressure and a softer near-term outlook make the durability and quality of growth important to monitor.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $268.31B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.48 Consensus $1.49
EPS surprise -0.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $4.74B Consensus $4.65B
Revenue surprise +2.1% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -5.6% Event window
SPY move -0.5% Same window
Abnormal move -5.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -8.0% Up to 20 sessions
TXNSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the tone became more confident around demand and cash flow, while the near-term focus shifted toward lower wafer loadings, higher depreciation, fab consolidation and the Q4 sequential decline.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its outlook framework while guiding to a modest sequential Q4 decline and an effective tax rate of about 13%.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue growth was driven by analog and embedded processing demand.
  • Gross margin declined as depreciation increased and wafer loadings fell.
  • Free cash flow remained strong, while management continued shareholder returns.
  • Data-center and industrial opportunities remain priorities, alongside fab consolidation.

Management priorities

  • Complete the shutdown of 150-mm fabs and consolidate R&D sites.
  • Invest in Utah and Lehi2 facilities and expand the data-center product portfolio.
  • Maintain disciplined capital allocation and support free-cash-flow-per-share growth.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TXN EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $1.07 Q1 '24 actual $1.20, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1.17 Q2 '24 actual $1.22, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.38 Q3 '24 actual $1.47, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1.36 Q2 '25 actual $1.41, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1.49 Q3 '25 actual $1.48, match Q4 '25 estimate $1.29 Q4 '25 actual $1.27, miss Q1 '26 estimate $1.36 Q1 '26 actual $1.68, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.91 Q2 '26 actual $2.14, beat Q3 '26 estimate $2.42 Q4 '26 estimate $2.29 Q1 '27 estimate $2.30 Q2 '27 estimate $2.54
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold64 ratings
Bullish3046.9%
Neutral2843.7%
Bearish69.4%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$293.8Current
$140Low
$249.71Average
$405High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Cantor Fitzgerald Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 17, 2026
Rosenblatt Buy BuyMaintainJul 24, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 23, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainJul 23, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainJul 23, 2026
Show 59 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $293.8. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Arete ResearchAlexi de Unger$405$277.07 +37.8%Jul 29, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$380$284.02 +29.3%Jul 23, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesVijay Rakesh$305$284.47 +3.8%Jul 23, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$385$283.33 +31.0%Jul 23, 2026
Evercore ISIMark Lipacis$330$284.18 +12.3%Jul 23, 2026
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TI) specializes in the global design, production, and sale of semiconductors to electronics engineers and manufacturers. Its operations are structured into two core segments: Analog and Embedded Processing. The Analog division provides a comprehensive suite of power management products, such as battery-management solutions, various DC/DC and AC/DC switching regulators and controllers, power switches, linear regulators, voltage supervisors, references, and lighting components, all critical for managing diverse power needs. This segment also delivers signal chain products designed to sense, condition, and measure electrical signals, facilitating information transfer or conversion for further processing and control, encompassing items like amplifiers, data converters, interface devices, motor drives, clocks, and sensing…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T11:20:42.692909+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T11:20:42.689896+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.