Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish2248.9%
Neutral2146.7%
Bearish24.4%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
The Trade Desk, Inc. · TTD · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
TTD Beats Revenue Estimates, Raises Q2 Guidance as Audience Unlimited Gains Traction
TTD delivered a solid Q1 2026 with revenue of $689M (+12% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $206M at a 30% margin, beating consensus revenue estimates by 1.5% while EPS slightly missed at $0.08 versus a $0.087 estimate. The company raised guidance, setting Q2 revenue at $750M or more and a full-year adjusted EBITDA margin target of 40% or higher. Growth was driven by CTV, audio, retail media, and international expansion, with the Audience Unlimited product showing concrete efficiency gains (30% lower CPMs, 38% lower data costs, 2.7x conversion versus control). Despite a confident management tone and a bullish score of 82, the stock experienced a -2.6% abnormal move on the report and has drifted -15.8% subsequently on 2.4x baseline volume, suggesting the market is weighing decelerating revenue growth (down from 18% in FY2025) and competitive risks against the raised outlook. The analyst…
Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology
$8.59B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationThe Trade Desk, Inc. is a global technology company that provides a self-service, cloud-based platform. This platform enables advertising buyers to efficiently create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital ad campaigns across diverse formats and channels, including display, video, audio, native, and social media, reaching audiences on computers, mobile devices, and connected TVs. In addition to the platform, the company offers various data and value-added services. Their primary clients are advertising agencies and other service providers who represent advertisers. The Trade Desk was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.08
Consensus $0
EPS surprise
-8.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$688.9M
Consensus $678.9M
Revenue surprise
+1.5%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$18.04Current
$11.6Low
$63.3Average
$145High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| HSBC | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Jul 8, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 11, 2026 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 8, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 8, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | May 8, 2026 | |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 26, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 27, 2026 |
| CFRA | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Perform | Market Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 23, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Nov 7, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Sep 30, 2025 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 4, 2025 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 19, 2025 |
| Citizens Capital Markets | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 13, 2025 |
| New Street Research | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 16, 2024 |
| Vertical Research | Positive | Neutral | Upgrade | May 3, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 16, 2023 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 19, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 8, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 28, 2020 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 28, 2020 |
| Pivotal Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 22, 2020 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 9, 2019 |
| Citi | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 24, 2019 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 5, 2018 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $18.04. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $20.38 | +55.2% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Arete Research | Analyst unavailable | $11.6 | $18.65 | -35.7% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $29 | $21.14 | +60.8% | May 11, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $23.06 | +10.9% | May 11, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $23.06 | +10.9% | May 11, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Thomas Champion | $24 | $23.06 | +33.0% | May 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $33 | $22.24 | +82.9% | May 8, 2026 |
| Needham | Laura Martin | $25 | $22.04 | +38.6% | May 8, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $21 | $21.94 | +16.4% | May 8, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $22.04 | +94.0% | May 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $21.9 | +44.1% | May 8, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $21.55 | +49.7% | May 8, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $23.49 | +10.9% | May 8, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $21 | $23.49 | +16.4% | May 8, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $23.49 | +38.6% | May 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $35 | $23.14 | +94.0% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $24.05 | +71.8% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Mark Kelley | $26 | $25.07 | +44.1% | Mar 17, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Tom White | $32 | $30 | +77.4% | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Thomas Champion | $28 | $24.02 | +55.2% | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Deepak Mathivanan | $22 | $23.74 | +22.0% | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Nat Schindler | $32 | $23.77 | +77.4% | Feb 26, 2026 |
| MoffettNathanson | Michael Nathanson | $32 | $25.16 | +77.4% | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Scott Devitt | $23 | $24.54 | +27.5% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $40 | $29.75 | +121.7% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Mark Zgutowicz | $53 | $32.14 | +193.8% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $60 | $33.81 | +232.6% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $36.82 | +310.2% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Stephen Ju | $50 | $35.48 | +177.2% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Nick Jones | $40 | $37.14 | +121.7% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $36.58 | +132.8% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $37.29 | +132.8% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| MoffettNathanson | Michael Nathanson | $39 | $37.29 | +116.2% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $38.65 | +138.4% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Shweta Khajuria | $45 | $40.11 | +149.4% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Michael Morris | $50 | $37.68 | +177.2% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $37.15 | +121.7% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $39.49 | +121.7% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $85 | $43 | +371.2% | Nov 9, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $43.89 | +343.5% | Nov 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Chris Kuntarich | $82 | $43.32 | +354.5% | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Alec Brondolo | $53 | $51.55 | +193.8% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Matthew Condon | $60 | $49.64 | +232.6% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Michael Morris | $55 | $47.14 | +204.9% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Cost | $50 | $50.16 | +177.2% | Sep 10, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $90 | $54.23 | +398.9% | Aug 8, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Brian Pitz | $98 | $54.78 | +443.2% | Aug 8, 2025 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $89.76 | +437.7% | Aug 4, 2025 |
| UBS | Chris Kuntarich | $105 | $80.95 | +482.0% | Jul 16, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Omar Nokta | $125 | $54.4 | +592.9% | Apr 29, 2025 |
| HSBC | Mohammed Khallouf | $75 | $50.08 | +315.7% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $140 | $120.42 | +676.1% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Jefferies | James Heaney | $138 | $123.9 | +665.0% | Nov 20, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rob Sanderson | $145 | $120.09 | +703.8% | Nov 11, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Brian Pitz | $125 | $120.09 | +592.9% | Nov 8, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Mark Mahaney | $135 | $120.1 | +648.3% | Nov 8, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Alec Brondolo | $150 | $118.98 | +731.5% | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Ygal Arounian | $140 | $117.97 | +676.1% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| MoffettNathanson | Michael Nathanson | $100 | $109.51 | +454.3% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Scott Devitt | $115 | $104.5 | +537.5% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Vikram Kesavabhotla | $130 | $103.34 | +620.6% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jessica Reif Ehrlich | $135 | $102.42 | +648.3% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rob Sanderson | $120 | $104.66 | +565.2% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| CFRA | Angelo Zino | $110 | $99.3 | +509.8% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Ygal Arounian | $115 | $88.27 | +537.5% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $115 | $88.27 | +537.5% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $105 | $92.43 | +482.0% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| BTIG | Clark Lampen | $110 | $100.44 | +509.8% | Jul 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Cost | $110 | $100.44 | +509.8% | Jul 23, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $105 | $96.01 | +482.0% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Shweta Khajuria | $115 | $100.09 | +537.5% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Scott Devitt | $110 | $95.66 | +509.8% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Brian Fitzgerald | $115 | $93.19 | +537.5% | May 16, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Rob Sanderson | $109 | $90.25 | +504.2% | May 16, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Brian Pitz | $108 | $88.3 | +498.7% | May 9, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Matt Farrell | $110 | $86.02 | +509.8% | May 9, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $110 | $86.02 | +509.8% | May 9, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Shyam Patil | $110 | $83.47 | +509.8% | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Cost | $100 | $83.47 | +454.3% | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Needham | Laura Martin | $100 | $83.23 | +454.3% | Jul 25, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $78 | $64.53 | +332.4% | May 11, 2023 |
| Needham | Laura Martin | $68 | $60.11 | +276.9% | Mar 23, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Matt Farrell | $60 | $44.13 | +232.6% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Ygal Arounian | $60 | $46.78 | +232.6% | Dec 16, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Jason Helfstein | $60 | $40.15 | +232.6% | Nov 9, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Cost | $60 | $56.15 | +232.6% | Oct 18, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $65 | $74.49 | +260.3% | Aug 15, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Jason Helfstein | $78 | $74.79 | +332.4% | Aug 10, 2022 |
| Needham | Laura Martin | $65 | $73.33 | +260.3% | Aug 10, 2022 |
| Needham | Laura Martin | $63.38 | $54.5 | +251.3% | Aug 10, 2022 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $72 | $44.03 | +299.1% | Jun 16, 2022 |
| Needham | Laura Martin | $55 | $43.34 | +204.9% | May 12, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Shyam Patil | $95 | $43.75 | +426.6% | May 11, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $85 | $44.99 | +371.2% | May 10, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $85 | $44.99 | +371.2% | May 9, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Shyam Patil | $125 | $67.79 | +592.9% | Apr 9, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew Swanson | $105 | $80.91 | +482.0% | Feb 16, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $105 | $75.47 | +482.0% | Jan 14, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Nicholas Jones CFA | $105 | $107.79 | +482.0% | Nov 19, 2021 |
| Stephens | Nicholas Zangler | $100 | $97.09 | +454.3% | Nov 9, 2021 |
| Evercore ISI | Shweta Khajuria | $100 | $88.75 | +454.3% | Nov 8, 2021 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $92 | $87.53 | +410.0% | Aug 10, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TTD the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-1.7%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-15.8%
Up to 20 sessions
TTDSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Revenue grew 12% YoY to $689M, beating the $679M consensus by 1.5%, though growth decelerated from 18% in FY2025. EPS of $0.08 missed the $0.087 estimate by 8.4%. Guidance was raised: Q2 revenue of at least $750M and full-year adjusted EBITDA margin target raised to 40% or higher, up from prior 'in line with 2025' language. Audience Unlimited launched with measurable results: 30% lower CPMs, 38% lower data costs, 75% more efficient CPA, 2.7x conversion rate versus control. Record JBP signings in March: 45 new agreements, 55% YoY growth, including a pharma win over Amazon with 114% spend increase. Chief Strategy Officer Samantha Jacob departed for OpenAI while remaining on the board of directors. Stock reaction was negative: -2.6% abnormal move with -15.8% subsequent drift on 2.4x baseline volume.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment improved from 'maintained' in the prior quarter to 'raised' in Q1 2026. The prior quarter set Q1 2026 revenue guidance of at least $678M and adjusted EBITDA of $195M; actual results exceeded both at $689M revenue and $206M EBITDA. Management now guides Q2 revenue to at least $750M and has set a full-year adjusted EBITDA margin target of 40% or higher, up from the prior 'in line with 2025' framing.
Key takeaways
- Q1 revenue of $689M grew 12% YoY and beat consensus by 1.5%, with adjusted EBITDA of $206M at a 30% margin.
- Guidance raised: Q2 revenue of at least $750M and full-year adjusted EBITDA margin target of 40% or higher.
- Audience Unlimited delivered measurable efficiency gains: 30% lower CPMs, 38% lower data costs, 75% more efficient CPA, and 2.7x conversion rate versus control.
- Record JBP signings in March (45 agreements, +55% YoY) including a pharma win over Amazon with 114% spend increase.
- Growth led by CTV, audio, retail media, and international markets across EMEA and APAC.
- Despite raised guidance, the stock fell 2.6% on the report and has drifted 15.8% lower since, suggesting the market is weighing revenue deceleration and competitive risks against the improved outlook.
Management priorities
- Scale AI and agentic capabilities, including deeper collaboration with Stagwell.
- Launch and expand Audience Unlimited across more advertisers.
- Integrate sponsored listings with retailers such as Criteo and Dollar General.
- Develop and promote the Ventura CTV operating system.
- Continue disciplined reinvestment while maintaining strong cash generation and share repurchases.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T20:31:34.172748+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T20:31:34.169494+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.