The Trade Desk, Inc. · TTD · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

TTD Beats Revenue Estimates, Raises Q2 Guidance as Audience Unlimited Gains Traction

TTD delivered a solid Q1 2026 with revenue of $689M (+12% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $206M at a 30% margin, beating consensus revenue estimates by 1.5% while EPS slightly missed at $0.08 versus a $0.087 estimate. The company raised guidance, setting Q2 revenue at $750M or more and a full-year adjusted EBITDA margin target of 40% or higher. Growth was driven by CTV, audio, retail media, and international expansion, with the Audience Unlimited product showing concrete efficiency gains (30% lower CPMs, 38% lower data costs, 2.7x conversion versus control). Despite a confident management tone and a bullish score of 82, the stock experienced a -2.6% abnormal move on the report and has drifted -15.8% subsequently on 2.4x baseline volume, suggesting the market is weighing decelerating revenue growth (down from 18% in FY2025) and competitive risks against the raised outlook. The analyst…

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $8.59B market cap
100quality score

Company context

Snapshot as of publication

The Trade Desk, Inc. is a global technology company that provides a self-service, cloud-based platform. This platform enables advertising buyers to efficiently create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital ad campaigns across diverse formats and channels, including display, video, audio, native, and social media, reaching audiences on computers, mobile devices, and connected TVs. In addition to the platform, the company offers various data and value-added services. Their primary clients are advertising agencies and other service providers who represent advertisers. The Trade Desk was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.08 Consensus $0
EPS surprise -8.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $688.9M Consensus $678.9M
Revenue surprise +1.5% Reported versus consensus

Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TTD EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.41 Q4 '23 actual $0.41, match Q1 '24 estimate $0.22 Q1 '24 actual $0.26, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.36 Q2 '24 actual $0.39, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.39 Q3 '24 actual $0.41, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.18 Q2 '25 actual $0.18, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.20 Q3 '25 actual $0.45, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.34 Q4 '25 actual $0.39, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.09 Q1 '26 actual $0.08, match Q2 '26 estimate $0.18 Q3 '26 estimate $0.29 Q4 '26 estimate $0.45 Q1 '27 estimate $0.14

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish2248.9%
Neutral2146.7%
Bearish24.4%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$18.04Current
$11.6Low
$63.3Average
$145High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
UBS Buy BuyMaintainJul 13, 2026
HSBC Hold ReduceUpgradeJul 8, 2026
DA Davidson Buy BuyMaintainMay 11, 2026
William Blair Market Perform OutperformDowngradeMay 8, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainMay 8, 2026
Wedbush Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 8, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainMay 8, 2026
Rosenblatt Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 8, 2026
Show 38 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $18.04. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$28$20.38 +55.2%Jul 13, 2026
Arete ResearchAnalyst unavailable$11.6$18.65 -35.7%Jun 30, 2026
D.A. DavidsonAnalyst unavailable$29$21.14 +60.8%May 11, 2026
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$20$23.06 +10.9%May 11, 2026
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$20$23.06 +10.9%May 11, 2026
Piper SandlerThomas Champion$24$23.06 +33.0%May 8, 2026
RBC CapitalMatthew Swanson$33$22.24 +82.9%May 8, 2026
NeedhamLaura Martin$25$22.04 +38.6%May 8, 2026
WedbushAnalyst unavailable$21$21.94 +16.4%May 8, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$35$22.04 +94.0%May 8, 2026
See 92 more

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Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -1.7% Event window
SPY move +0.8% Same window
Abnormal move -2.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -15.8% Up to 20 sessions
TTDSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Revenue grew 12% YoY to $689M, beating the $679M consensus by 1.5%, though growth decelerated from 18% in FY2025. EPS of $0.08 missed the $0.087 estimate by 8.4%. Guidance was raised: Q2 revenue of at least $750M and full-year adjusted EBITDA margin target raised to 40% or higher, up from prior 'in line with 2025' language. Audience Unlimited launched with measurable results: 30% lower CPMs, 38% lower data costs, 75% more efficient CPA, 2.7x conversion rate versus control. Record JBP signings in March: 45 new agreements, 55% YoY growth, including a pharma win over Amazon with 114% spend increase. Chief Strategy Officer Samantha Jacob departed for OpenAI while remaining on the board of directors. Stock reaction was negative: -2.6% abnormal move with -15.8% subsequent drift on 2.4x baseline volume.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment improved from 'maintained' in the prior quarter to 'raised' in Q1 2026. The prior quarter set Q1 2026 revenue guidance of at least $678M and adjusted EBITDA of $195M; actual results exceeded both at $689M revenue and $206M EBITDA. Management now guides Q2 revenue to at least $750M and has set a full-year adjusted EBITDA margin target of 40% or higher, up from the prior 'in line with 2025' framing.

Key takeaways

  • Q1 revenue of $689M grew 12% YoY and beat consensus by 1.5%, with adjusted EBITDA of $206M at a 30% margin.
  • Guidance raised: Q2 revenue of at least $750M and full-year adjusted EBITDA margin target of 40% or higher.
  • Audience Unlimited delivered measurable efficiency gains: 30% lower CPMs, 38% lower data costs, 75% more efficient CPA, and 2.7x conversion rate versus control.
  • Record JBP signings in March (45 agreements, +55% YoY) including a pharma win over Amazon with 114% spend increase.
  • Growth led by CTV, audio, retail media, and international markets across EMEA and APAC.
  • Despite raised guidance, the stock fell 2.6% on the report and has drifted 15.8% lower since, suggesting the market is weighing revenue deceleration and competitive risks against the improved outlook.

Management priorities

  • Scale AI and agentic capabilities, including deeper collaboration with Stagwell.
  • Launch and expand Audience Unlimited across more advertisers.
  • Integrate sponsored listings with retailers such as Criteo and Dollar General.
  • Develop and promote the Ventura CTV operating system.
  • Continue disciplined reinvestment while maintaining strong cash generation and share repurchases.

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T20:31:34.172748+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T20:31:34.169494+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.