The Trade Desk, Inc. · TTD · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

The Trade Desk pairs CTV and AI momentum with competitive risks

The analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: resilient programmatic demand, CTV expansion, AI-enabled products, international growth, and Joint Business Plans provide multiple growth avenues. The evidence is not one-sided, because competitive pricing, macro pressure, regulation, and potential impression-volume changes remain material tests.

Reported After market closeNASDAQCommunication Services $5.62B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.45 Consensus $0.20
EPS surprise +123.9% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $739.4M Consensus $719.0M
Revenue surprise +2.8% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -6.3% Event window
SPY move +0.1% Same window
Abnormal move -6.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -8.5% Up to 20 sessions
TTDSPY benchmark

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Why did TTD fall 6.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in TTD's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for TTD after FY2025 Q3 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis adds stronger evidence around CTV scale, international growth, new AI-enabled products, Audience Unlimited, and OpenPath/OpenAds expansion. It also sharpens the risk discussion around zero-price DSP strategies, AI-driven changes to inventory, macro pressure, and Google antitrust.

Guidance delta

Maintained; management’s Q4 revenue guidance was at least $840 million, or about 18.5% year over year.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted double-digit revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, with CTV at roughly half of the business mix.
  • Kokai, OpenPath, OpenAds, Deal Desk, Audience Unlimited, and Trading Modes were presented as product and supply-chain growth initiatives.
  • International markets were described as growing faster than the U.S., while guidance called for at least $840 million of Q4 revenue.
  • The post-earnings reaction was sharply negative relative to the benchmark, underscoring the gap between operating momentum and investor expectations.

Management priorities

  • Scale Deal Desk, Audience Unlimited, and trading modes.
  • Expand OpenPath and OpenAds integrations with premium publishers.
  • Accelerate Joint Business Plans and invest in mid-market and emerging advertisers with AI-enabled tools.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TTD EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $0.22 Q1 '24 actual $0.26, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.36 Q2 '24 actual $0.39, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.39 Q3 '24 actual $0.41, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.18 Q2 '25 actual $0.18, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.20 Q3 '25 actual $0.45, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.34 Q4 '25 actual $0.39, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.09 Q1 '26 actual $0.08, match Q2 '26 estimate $0.18 Q2 '26 actual $0.14, miss Q3 '26 estimate $0.05 Q4 '26 estimate $0.45 Q1 '27 estimate $0.14
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish1635.6%
Neutral2453.3%
Bearish511.1%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$11.95Current
$6Low
$49.2Average
$145High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Guggenheim Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 18, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainSep 9, 2026
HSBC Reduce HoldDowngradeAug 10, 2026
DA Davidson Neutral BuyDowngradeAug 10, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainAug 7, 2026
Show 41 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $11.95. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
GuggenheimMichael Morris$13$14.26 +8.8%Sep 18, 2026
Evercore ISIMark Mahaney$14$14.1 +17.2%Sep 8, 2026
BNP ParibasNick Jones$10$13.12 -16.3%Aug 10, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$13$13.2 +8.8%Aug 10, 2026
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$10$13.8 -16.3%Aug 10, 2026
See 117 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

The Trade Desk, Inc. is a global technology company that provides a self-service, cloud-based platform. This platform enables advertising buyers to efficiently create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital ad campaigns across diverse formats and channels, including display, video, audio, native, and social media, reaching audiences on computers, mobile devices, and connected TVs. In addition to the platform, the company offers various data and value-added services. Their primary clients are advertising agencies and other service providers who represent advertisers. The Trade Desk was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.

Historical context

All TTD earnings
-21.9%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-1.7%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026-4.8%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T16:10:45.512648+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T16:10:45.509892+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.