The Trade Desk, Inc. · TTD · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

The Trade Desk: Growth Holds, but Macro and Execution Risks Remain

The quarter supports a durable-growth case through CTV, audio, international expansion and AI-enabled products, but the next phase depends on demand in weaker verticals, competitive execution and successful product and infrastructure scaling.

Reported After market closeNASDAQCommunication Services $5.92B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.39 Consensus $0.34
EPS surprise +15.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $846.8M Consensus $840.6M
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -4.8% Event window
SPY move -0.6% Same window
Abnormal move -4.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -9.2% Up to 20 sessions
TTDSPY benchmark

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Why did TTD fall 4.8% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in TTD's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TTD after FY2025 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current review adds reported FY2025 and Q4 results, Q1 2026 guidance, greater emphasis on owned-data-center investment, and clearer risks from CPG and automotive weakness. Management continued to emphasize Kokai, Audience Unlimited, Deal Desk, OpenPath and international growth.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment was maintained. Q1 2026 guidance calls for at least $678 million of revenue, up 10% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of $195 million; full-year margins are expected to be in line with 2025.

Key takeaways

  • FY2025 revenue reached $2.9 billion, up 18% year over year, while Q4 revenue was $847 million, up 14%.
  • CTV, audio and international markets supported growth, while CPG and automotive remained pressured by macro conditions.
  • Kokai, Audience Unlimited, Deal Desk and OpenPath are central to the product and monetization roadmap.
  • The market reaction was negative despite the earnings beat, so execution and demand durability remain important watchpoints.

Management priorities

  • Scale Kokai AI capabilities and Agentic AI frameworks.
  • Roll out Audience Unlimited globally and expand retail data integrations.
  • Deploy Deal Desk worldwide and expand integrations.
  • Complete the transition to owned data centers while increasing infrastructure investment.
  • Simplify billing and measurement to improve advertiser transparency.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TTD REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $582M Q4 '23 actual $606M, beat Q1 '24 estimate $480M Q1 '24 actual $491M, beat Q2 '24 estimate $578M Q2 '24 actual $585M, beat Q3 '24 estimate $620M Q3 '24 actual $628M, beat Q2 '25 estimate $685M Q2 '25 actual $694M, beat Q3 '25 estimate $719M Q3 '25 actual $739M, beat Q4 '25 estimate $841M Q4 '25 actual $847M, beat Q1 '26 estimate $679M Q1 '26 actual $689M, beat Q2 '26 estimate $752M Q2 '26 actual $715M, miss Q3 '26 estimate $651M Q4 '26 estimate $942M Q1 '27 estimate $566M
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish1635.6%
Neutral2453.3%
Bearish511.1%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$12.34Current
$6Low
$49.2Average
$145High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Guggenheim Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 18, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainSep 9, 2026
HSBC Reduce HoldDowngradeAug 10, 2026
DA Davidson Neutral BuyDowngradeAug 10, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainAug 7, 2026
Show 41 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $12.34. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
GuggenheimMichael Morris$13$14.26 +5.3%Sep 18, 2026
Evercore ISIMark Mahaney$14$14.1 +13.5%Sep 8, 2026
BNP ParibasNick Jones$10$13.12 -19.0%Aug 10, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$13$13.2 +5.3%Aug 10, 2026
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$10$13.8 -19.0%Aug 10, 2026
See 117 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

The Trade Desk, Inc. is a global technology company that provides a self-service, cloud-based platform. This platform enables advertising buyers to efficiently create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital ad campaigns across diverse formats and channels, including display, video, audio, native, and social media, reaching audiences on computers, mobile devices, and connected TVs. In addition to the platform, the company offers various data and value-added services. Their primary clients are advertising agencies and other service providers who represent advertisers. The Trade Desk was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.

Historical context

All TTD earnings
-21.9%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-1.7%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:55:09.210075+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-28T19:01:00.627055+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-28T19:01:00.624295+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.