Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy24 ratings
Bullish1875.0%
Neutral625.0%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · TSM · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
TSMC demand remains strong as 2nm ramp weighs on margins
The quarter supports a constructive demand case for TSMC: advanced-node, AI and HPC demand remained strong, while the main counterweight is near-term margin dilution from the 2nm ramp and global expansion. The durability of AI growth and the returns on this capacity buildout remain the key tests.
Reported Before market openNYSETechnology
$2230.19B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $4.45
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $45.67B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.8%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
TSMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TSM FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove TSM's -2.8% move after FY2026 Q3 earnings?What changed in TSM's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for TSM after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, TSMC reported stronger Q3 demand and moved into a Q4 revenue target of $52.3-$54.3 billion while maintaining its broader outlook. The analysis also highlights a possible AI accelerator CAGR above the prior mid-to-high-50% range, an additional 3nm fab in Tainan, and evaluation of a Texas fab.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its outlook while setting a Q4 revenue target of $52.3-$54.3 billion; the analysis notes a modest margin dip as 2nm and overseas-fab costs rise.
Key takeaways
- Q3 revenue exceeded guidance, supported by demand for advanced nodes and AI-related workloads.
- Management described AI demand as robust and said accelerator growth could exceed the prior mid-to-high-50% CAGR range.
- The 2026 capital budget remains $60-$64 billion, funding broad capacity and advanced-packaging expansion.
- Margin pressure from the 2nm ramp and overseas fabs is expected to be partly offset by productivity gains.
Management priorities
- Ramp 2nm and continue N2 high-volume manufacturing.
- Expand 3nm capacity in Taiwan, Arizona and Japan while evaluating additional sites.
- Scale advanced packaging for larger reticle sizes and support AI, HPC and networking demand.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$419.08Current
$125Low
$515.33Average
$700High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 15, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Erste Group | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 13, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 13, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 11, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 22, 2021 |
| New Street | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2020 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2020 |
| China Renaissance | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 17, 2019 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Sep 5, 2019 |
| CLSA | Buy | Underperform | Upgrade | Jul 19, 2019 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 19, 2018 |
| Pacific Crest | Underweight | Upgrade | Oct 14, 2016 | |
| Nomura | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2016 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2016 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 26, 2015 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 8, 2015 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 8, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $419.08. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $515 | $414 | +22.9% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Mark Li | $554 | $423.66 | +32.2% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $530 | $403.41 | +26.5% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $409.74 | +19.3% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $650 | $409.74 | +55.1% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $600 | $419.48 | +43.2% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Simon Coles | $625 | $432.35 | +49.1% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $575 | $468.86 | +37.2% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $441.4 | +67.0% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $480 | $368.13 | +14.5% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $368.1 | +7.4% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $341.64 | +7.4% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $410 | $349.35 | -2.2% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $294.72 | -21.3% | Dec 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Simon Coles | $355 | $299.84 | -15.3% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $303.26 | -14.1% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $299.88 | -4.6% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $304.52 | -21.3% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $325 | $262.06 | -22.4% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $265 | $228.67 | -36.8% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Simon Coles | $215 | $147.86 | -48.7% | Apr 21, 2025 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $210 | $165.77 | -49.9% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Mark Li | $200 | $179.69 | -52.3% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $200 | $172.51 | -52.3% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $168 | $145.4 | -59.9% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $180 | $141.49 | -57.0% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $135 | $98.07 | -67.8% | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $118 | $99.82 | -71.8% | Jun 1, 2023 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $110 | $79.4 | -73.8% | Sep 14, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $88 | $86.3 | -79.0% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $100 | $87.11 | -76.1% | Jun 14, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Krish Sankar | $125 | $140.66 | -70.2% | Jan 16, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), along with its affiliated entities, operates globally in the semiconductor industry, specializing in the manufacturing, packaging, meticulous testing, and worldwide distribution of integrated circuits and other crucial semiconductor components. Its expansive international presence covers key markets such as Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and the United States. The company is renowned for its diverse array of wafer fabrication processes.…
Historical context
All TSM earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIT Wipro Limited | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +2.8% | Wipro keeps AI strategy central as margins improve |
| ERIC Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +7.2% | Ericsson Q3: Growth and AI progress offset cost and RAN risks |
| ASML ASML Holding N.V. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +20.4% | -3.9% | ASML: Record Q3, strong AI demand and broader capacity plans |
Latest beats and misses
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Missed on EPS
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One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-15T15:11:44.189335+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-15T01:23:12.167262+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-15T15:20:45.661455+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-15T15:20:45.658811+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-15. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.