Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy24 ratings
Bullish1875.0%
Neutral625.0%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · TSM · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
TSMC Raises Capex as AI Demand Drives Capacity Expansion
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: strong AI and high-performance-computing demand is funding larger capacity and packaging investments, but the next phase depends on executing the 2nm and overseas-fab ramps without eroding margins.
Reported Before market openNYSETechnology
$2230.19B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$4.31
Consensus $3.87
EPS surprise
+11.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$39.36B
Consensus $39.83B
Revenue surprise
-1.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.3%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+5.1%
Up to 20 sessions
TSMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TSM FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TSM fall 2.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in TSM's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for TSM after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, management raised guidance: full-year 2026 capex moved to $60–$64 billion, Q3 revenue was expected to grow about 12% sequentially, and the discussion added agentic AI as a source of CPU demand. The company also outlined an additional $100 billion Arizona investment and continued 2nm, A14 and packaging expansion.
Guidance delta
Raised: full-year 2026 capex increased to $60–$64 billion; Q3 revenue was guided to $44.6–$45.8 billion with 65–67% gross margins.
Key takeaways
- Q2 revenue reached the top of guidance, while Q3 revenue was expected to grow about 12% sequentially.
- Management raised 2026 capex to $60–$64 billion, with 70–80% directed to advanced nodes.
- AI, including agentic AI, remained the central demand driver, alongside expanded 2nm, 3nm and advanced-packaging capacity.
Management priorities
- Ramp 2nm production in the second half of 2026 and advance A14 toward pre-production in 2027.
- Expand fabs and advanced-packaging capacity across Taiwan, Arizona and Japan.
- Use cost improvements and leading-edge AI demand to offset expected margin pressure from the 2nm ramp.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$419.08Current
$125Low
$515.33Average
$700High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 15, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Erste Group | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 13, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 13, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 11, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 22, 2021 |
| New Street | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2020 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2020 |
| China Renaissance | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 17, 2019 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Sep 5, 2019 |
| CLSA | Buy | Underperform | Upgrade | Jul 19, 2019 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 19, 2018 |
| Pacific Crest | Underweight | Upgrade | Oct 14, 2016 | |
| Nomura | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2016 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2016 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 26, 2015 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 8, 2015 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 8, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $419.08. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $515 | $414 | +22.9% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Mark Li | $554 | $423.66 | +32.2% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $530 | $403.41 | +26.5% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $409.74 | +19.3% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $650 | $409.74 | +55.1% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $600 | $419.48 | +43.2% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Simon Coles | $625 | $432.35 | +49.1% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $575 | $468.86 | +37.2% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $441.4 | +67.0% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $480 | $368.13 | +14.5% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $368.1 | +7.4% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $341.64 | +7.4% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $410 | $349.35 | -2.2% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $294.72 | -21.3% | Dec 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Simon Coles | $355 | $299.84 | -15.3% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $303.26 | -14.1% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $299.88 | -4.6% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $304.52 | -21.3% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $325 | $262.06 | -22.4% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $265 | $228.67 | -36.8% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Simon Coles | $215 | $147.86 | -48.7% | Apr 21, 2025 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $210 | $165.77 | -49.9% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Mark Li | $200 | $179.69 | -52.3% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $200 | $172.51 | -52.3% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $168 | $145.4 | -59.9% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $180 | $141.49 | -57.0% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $135 | $98.07 | -67.8% | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $118 | $99.82 | -71.8% | Jun 1, 2023 |
| Needham | Charles Shi | $110 | $79.4 | -73.8% | Sep 14, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $88 | $86.3 | -79.0% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $100 | $87.11 | -76.1% | Jun 14, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Krish Sankar | $125 | $140.66 | -70.2% | Jan 16, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), along with its affiliated entities, operates globally in the semiconductor industry, specializing in the manufacturing, packaging, meticulous testing, and worldwide distribution of integrated circuits and other crucial semiconductor components. Its expansive international presence covers key markets such as Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and the United States. The company is renowned for its diverse array of wafer fabrication processes.…
Historical context
All TSM earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIT Wipro Limited | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +2.8% | Wipro keeps AI strategy central as margins improve |
| ERIC Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +7.2% | Ericsson Q3: Growth and AI progress offset cost and RAN risks |
| ASML ASML Holding N.V. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +20.4% | -3.9% | ASML: Record Q3, strong AI demand and broader capacity plans |
Latest beats and misses
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Missed on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-16T19:03:20.610838+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-08-21T01:23:15.167906+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-15T16:20:43.825820+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-15T16:20:43.823114+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-15. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.