Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold50 ratings
Bullish2448.0%
Neutral2550.0%
Bearish12.0%
Tractor Supply Company · TSCO · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
TSCO Q2: Comp Sales Turn Negative as Pet Ecosystem Expands
Tractor Supply is executing a multi-pronged transformation while navigating a quarter where comp sales turned negative for the first time in recent periods. The pet ecosystem expansion (Freshpet to 700-plus stores, VIP Petcare acquisition adding roughly 1 million pets and 2,500 veterinarians), store-portfolio rationalization (closing 75 Petsense locations), and price-perception investments form the strategic core. However, comp sales fell 1.5% on fuel and drought headwinds, FY2026 comp guidance was cut from 1-3% growth to -1% to flat, and the long-term financial framework was withdrawn. The market reacted positively despite the misses, with an abnormal move of 4.5% on 2.5x normal volume, pricing in the strategic repositioning and resilience of needs-based categories.
Reported Before market openNASDAQConsumer Cyclical
$15.84B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationTractor Supply Company functions as a prominent retailer, catering to the rural lifestyle demographic throughout the United States. Its extensive product catalog encompasses items crucial for the health, well-being, development, and enclosure of equine, livestock, pets, and small animals. Additionally, it stocks a variety of hardware, truck, towing, and tool supplies. Shoppers can also find seasonal goods like heating solutions, gardening equipment, power tools, novelty gifts, and children's toys, alongside workwear, casual apparel, footwear, and essential maintenance products designed for agricultural and general rural applications.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.81
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
-1.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.54B
Consensus $4.58B
Revenue surprise
-0.8%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$30.21Previous close
$28Low
$99.82Average
$315High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 16, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Gordon Haskett | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 25, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jan 16, 2025 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 25, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 13, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 16, 2023 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 19, 2023 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 12, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Northcoast Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 1, 2021 |
| Nomura Instinet | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 27, 2020 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 27, 2020 |
| Northcoast | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 2, 2019 |
| Piper Jaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2019 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 13, 2018 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Oct 26, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Oct 26, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2018 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 27, 2018 |
| Moffett Nathanson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 4, 2017 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Sep 27, 2017 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 3, 2017 |
| BTIG Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2016 |
| BTIG | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2016 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 24, 2014 |
| Avondale Partners | Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | May 17, 2013 |
| Feltl & Co. | Hold | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 7, 2013 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 3, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $30.21. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $32.23 | +35.7% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $38 | $30.12 | +25.8% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $30.13 | -7.3% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $35 | $30.32 | +15.9% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $30.32 | +2.6% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $30.32 | +32.4% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kate McShane | $38 | $30.32 | +25.8% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $30.51 | +25.8% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Bobby Griffin | $40 | $31.01 | +32.4% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $30.17 | +12.5% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $30.55 | +15.9% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $30.16 | +32.4% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $30.03 | +9.2% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $30.43 | +15.9% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $29.58 | +5.9% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Oliver Wintermantel | $40 | $30.61 | +32.4% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $40 | $29.86 | +32.4% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $30.88 | +5.9% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $30.88 | +5.9% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Steven Forbes | $50 | $29.37 | +65.5% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Peter Keith | $36 | $32.31 | +19.2% | May 5, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Steven Forbes | $60 | $38.96 | +98.6% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Jonathan Matuszewski | $51 | $39.26 | +68.8% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $39.28 | +45.6% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $44.63 | +98.6% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $55 | $45.44 | +82.1% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $51.58 | +82.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $60 | $50.05 | +98.6% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $50.96 | +95.3% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $50.96 | +92.0% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $50.96 | +95.3% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Spencer Hanus | $57 | $50.96 | +88.7% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $63 | $50.96 | +108.5% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Oliver Wintermantel | $60 | $50.96 | +98.6% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Stephens | Jeff Lick | $53 | $54.11 | +75.4% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $50.73 | +88.7% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $55 | $50.73 | +82.1% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Gordon Haskett Capital Corporation | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $49.89 | +65.5% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Jonathan Matuszewski | $64 | $52.92 | +111.9% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Oliver Wintermantel | $65 | $53.29 | +115.2% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $70 | $56.35 | +131.7% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Benedict | $67 | $57.52 | +121.8% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $56.35 | +115.2% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $60 | $57.52 | +98.6% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $56.32 | +115.2% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Spencer Hanus | $70 | $59.1 | +131.7% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $70 | $59.33 | +131.7% | Jul 25, 2025 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $61 | $59.33 | +101.9% | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Telsey Advisory | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $49.92 | +98.6% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $49.92 | +78.7% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $49.92 | +82.1% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Benedict | $315 | $274.29 | +942.7% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $300 | $297.62 | +893.0% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Benedict | $320 | $302.8 | +959.3% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $335 | $302.8 | +1008.9% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Peter Keith | $332 | $303.37 | +999.0% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $325 | $303.37 | +975.8% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Oliver Wintermantel | $300 | $294.29 | +893.0% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Melius Research | Karen Short | $315 | $275.88 | +942.7% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Seth Basham | $270 | $264.47 | +793.7% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $300 | $262.52 | +893.0% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Jonathan Matuszewski | $260 | $257.44 | +760.6% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Peter Keith | $300 | $275.47 | +893.0% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Oliver Wintermantel | $275 | $253.38 | +810.3% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $275 | $247.35 | +810.3% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $277 | $258.24 | +816.9% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $245 | $197.14 | +711.0% | Oct 20, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Bobby Griffin | $235 | $204.84 | +677.9% | Oct 10, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $235 | $205.17 | +677.9% | Oct 5, 2023 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $250 | $202.65 | +727.5% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $266 | $195.3 | +780.5% | Jun 13, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $205.35 | +628.2% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $212.61 | +727.5% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $261 | $219.18 | +764.0% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Benedict | $250 | $219.18 | +727.5% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Steven Zaccone | $240 | $214.84 | +694.4% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $235 | $220.48 | +677.9% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $270 | $227.93 | +793.7% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Taylor Conrad | $255 | $235.71 | +744.1% | Dec 30, 2021 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $232 | $235.71 | +668.0% | Dec 30, 2021 |
| Gordon Haskett Capital Corporation | Charles Grom | $240 | $217.2 | +694.4% | Nov 11, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Bobby Griffin | $245 | $206.85 | +711.0% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Stephens | Daniel Imbro | $241 | $206.85 | +697.7% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $220 | $206.85 | +628.2% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kate McShane | $241 | $206.85 | +697.7% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Barclays | Karen Short | $215 | $206.85 | +611.7% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Anthony Chukumba | $215 | $206.85 | +611.7% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Guggenheim | Steven Forbes | $230 | $206.85 | +661.3% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Northcoast Research | Chuck Cerankosky | $220 | $186.12 | +628.2% | Jul 1, 2021 |
| Wedbush | Seth Basham | $190 | $187.11 | +528.9% | Apr 23, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TSCO the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+3.3%
Event window
SPY move
-1.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
+4.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.4%
Up to 20 sessions
TSCOSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q2 comp sales declined approximately 1.5%, a sharp deterioration from Q1's positive 0.5% comp growth, driven by fuel price spikes, drought-related softness in May, and a pullback in big-ticket discretionary spending. EPS came in at $0.81 versus an estimated $0.818, a roughly 1% miss, and revenue of $4.54B fell short of the $4.58B consensus by about 0.8%. Despite the misses, the stock moved up significantly with an abnormal return of 4.5% on 2.5x normal volume. Management updated FY2026 guidance, cutting comparable store sales expectations from 1-3% growth to -1% to flat, and announced the withdrawal of its long-term financial framework with a replacement planned for the Q4 2026 release.
Guidance delta
FY2026 guidance was updated: net sales growth maintained at 2.5-3.5%, but comparable store sales guidance was cut from the prior 1-3% growth range to -1% to flat. Adjusted operating margin guided at 8.5-8.8% and adjusted EPS to $1.90-$2.00. The long-term financial algorithm framework was withdrawn entirely, with a replacement planned for the Q4 2026 earnings release.
Key takeaways
- Q2 net sales grew 2% to $4.5B, but comp sales fell 1.5% as fuel price spikes and Southeast drought weighed on demand
- EPS of $0.81 narrowly missed the $0.818 consensus; revenue of $4.54B fell about 0.8% short of estimates
- VIP Petcare acquisition adds roughly 1 million pets and 2,500 veterinarians to the pet ecosystem
- Freshpet rollout continues, targeting at least 700 stores by year-end
- Portfolio rationalization: 75 underperforming Petsense stores to close; 85-90 new stores planned for 2027
- Price/value initiatives improved price perception by 180 bps year-over-year
Management priorities
- Expand the pet ecosystem through Freshpet rollout, VIP Petcare integration, and Allivet veterinary network
- Rationalize store portfolio by closing 75 Petsense locations while accelerating new-store and Project Fusion remodels
- Scale Final Mile delivery network ahead of the original timeline
- Drive price perception improvements through the unbeatable-price campaign
- Open an 11th distribution center in early Q4 2026
- Introduce a new long-term financial framework with the Q4 2026 earnings release
Related earnings events
Consumer CyclicalSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-23T19:03:27.787601+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-31T01:23:16.182055+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T07:41:42.145337+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T07:41:42.142676+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.