Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold44 ratings
Bullish1125.0%
Neutral2965.9%
Bearish49.1%
The Travelers Companies, Inc. · TRV · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Travelers: Record Earnings, AI Investment and Pricing Risks
Travelers' record earnings, disciplined underwriting, high retention, investment income, and technology initiatives support a constructive operating outlook. The case is tempered by missing 2026 top-line guidance, decelerating property pricing, and exposure to catastrophe, social inflation, tariff, regulatory, and investment risks.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$74.36B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$8.14
Consensus $6.39
EPS surprise
+27.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$12.47B
Consensus $11.69B
Revenue surprise
+6.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+9.9%
Up to 20 sessions
TRVSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TRV FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TRV fall 2.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in TRV's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for TRV after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis shifts the emphasis toward record earnings, accelerated capital returns, and AI and digital investment. It also adds planned Q4 repurchases, new BOP and auto products, and clearer concerns about property pricing, tariffs, social inflation, and the lack of explicit 2026 top-line guidance.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was not provided. The analysis flags a lack of explicit top-line growth guidance for 2026.
Key takeaways
- Record earnings reflected strong underwriting discipline and higher investment income.
- Excess capital supports accelerated share repurchases over the next two quarters.
- AI, the Travis platform, and new BOP and auto products are central to the growth plan.
- High retention supports premium growth, while property pricing and catastrophe risk remain watch items.
Management priorities
- Increase share repurchases, including the planned Q4 program.
- Deploy Canadian divestiture proceeds toward buybacks and technology spending.
- Continue rolling out AI-driven underwriting tools and the Travis platform.
- Launch new BOP and auto products.
- Adjust pricing, appetite, and terms across property and casualty lines.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$356.51Previous close
$95Low
$276.28Average
$430High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | May 26, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 11, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Sell | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2025 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 21, 2024 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 7, 2024 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Apr 5, 2024 |
| CFRA | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 19, 2023 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 25, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 23, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 1, 2021 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 22, 2020 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 22, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 18, 2019 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 6, 2019 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 26, 2018 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | Jan 26, 2018 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 13, 2017 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 28, 2014 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 12, 2014 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 24, 2013 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 20, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $356.51. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $379 | $368.5 | +6.3% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $350 | $368.66 | -1.8% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $425 | $366.87 | +19.2% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $430 | $368.98 | +20.6% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $307 | $368.98 | -13.9% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $336.83 | -18.7% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $340 | $339.42 | -4.6% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $395 | $337.48 | +10.8% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $329 | $337.48 | -7.7% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $295 | $303.9 | -17.3% | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $322 | $306.46 | -9.7% | May 26, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $314 | $305.76 | -11.9% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $304 | $283.19 | -14.7% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $317 | $284.98 | -11.1% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $317 | $290.64 | -11.1% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $313 | $284.97 | -12.2% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $264 | $255.99 | -25.9% | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $269 | $274.54 | -24.5% | May 19, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $310 | $241.51 | -13.0% | Jan 24, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $270 | $259.7 | -24.3% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| JMP Securities | Meyer Shields | $273 | $259.7 | -23.4% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | Harry Fong | $300 | $265.45 | -15.9% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $256 | $265.45 | -28.2% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Cave Montazeri | $277 | $264.82 | -22.3% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mark Dwelle | $273 | $264.82 | -23.4% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $286 | $231.42 | -19.8% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $207 | $203.48 | -41.9% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $196 | $203.48 | -45.0% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| CFRA | Cathy Seifert | $225 | $203.48 | -36.9% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $236 | $203.48 | -33.8% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $210 | $203.48 | -41.1% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $240 | $203.48 | -32.7% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jimmy Bhullar | $242 | $220.6 | -32.1% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Stephen Tusa | $95 | $213.07 | -73.4% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mark Dwelle | $225 | $206.58 | -36.9% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $202 | $206.58 | -43.3% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| CFRA | Cathy Seifert | $235 | $205.25 | -34.1% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $214 | $206.06 | -40.0% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $225 | $223.12 | -36.9% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $185 | $159.68 | -48.1% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Mark Dwelle | $165 | $156.83 | -53.7% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Charles Lederer | $156 | $163.15 | -56.2% | Jun 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $184 | $176.88 | -48.4% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Mark Dwelle | $190 | $184.86 | -46.7% | Apr 9, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Andrew Kligerman | $178 | $166.82 | -50.1% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $176 | $161.48 | -50.6% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $152 | $156.96 | -57.4% | Oct 20, 2021 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $158 | $154.52 | -55.7% | Oct 11, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TRV the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationThe Travelers Companies, Inc., through its network of subsidiaries, delivers a broad spectrum of commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services. These offerings cater to businesses, government entities, associations, and individual clients both within the United States and internationally. The company's operations are divided into three primary segments: Business Insurance, Bond & Specialty Insurance, and Personal Insurance. The Business Insurance segment provides a comprehensive portfolio of commercial coverages, ranging from foundational offerings like workers' compensation, commercial auto, property, general liability, multi-peril, and employers' liability, to more specialized policies. These specialized offerings include public and product liability, professional indemnity, marine, aviation, onshore and offshore energy, construction, terrorism, personal accident, and even kidnap and ransom insurance.…
Historical context
All TRV earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1230.3% | +0.3% | Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
- MUFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+5.4% EPS+0.0% move
- CCLFY2026 Q3 · September 29, 2026+5.9% EPS+13.4% move
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
Get the TRV recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T09:36:05.834756+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T09:36:05.831885+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.