Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold44 ratings
Bullish1125.0%
Neutral2965.9%
Bearish49.1%
The Travelers Companies, Inc. · TRV · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Travelers Q2 2026: Core ROE Soars to 24.9%, Combined Ratio Tightens to 83.6%
Travelers delivered a standout second quarter, with core income of $2.2 billion, a core ROE of 24.9% (well above the company's mid-teens target), and an all-in combined ratio of 83.6%. EPS of $10.04 crushed the $5.41 consensus by 85.6%, while revenue of $11.53 billion edged past the $11.26 billion estimate. The stock surged 9.2% on the report and has continued to drift higher, adding another 7.7% in subsequent sessions. Underwriting strength was broad-based across Business Insurance, Bond & Specialty, and Personal lines, supported by favorable prior-year reserve development and a 14% rise in net investment income. The company returned over $1.5 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, and a $100 billion-plus fixed-income portfolio continues to generate favorable yields. Management struck a confident tone, highlighting record new business of $805 million in Business…
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$82.85B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationThe Travelers Companies, Inc., through its network of subsidiaries, delivers a broad spectrum of commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services. These offerings cater to businesses, government entities, associations, and individual clients both within the United States and internationally. The company's operations are divided into three primary segments: Business Insurance, Bond & Specialty Insurance, and Personal Insurance. The Business Insurance segment provides a comprehensive portfolio of commercial coverages, ranging from foundational offerings like workers' compensation, commercial auto, property, general liability, multi-peril, and employers' liability, to more specialized policies. These specialized offerings include public and product liability, professional indemnity, marine, aviation, onshore and offshore energy, construction, terrorism, personal accident, and even kidnap and ransom insurance.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$10.04
Consensus $5
EPS surprise
+85.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$11.53B
Consensus $11.26B
Revenue surprise
+2.4%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$397.22Previous close
$95Low
$276.28Average
$430High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | May 26, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 11, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Sell | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2025 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 21, 2024 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 7, 2024 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Apr 5, 2024 |
| CFRA | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 19, 2023 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 25, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 23, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 1, 2021 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 22, 2020 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 22, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 18, 2019 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 6, 2019 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 7, 2018 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 26, 2018 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | Jan 26, 2018 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 13, 2017 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 28, 2014 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 12, 2014 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 24, 2013 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 20, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $397.22. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $379 | $368.5 | -4.6% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $350 | $368.66 | -11.9% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $425 | $366.87 | +7.0% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $430 | $368.98 | +8.3% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $307 | $368.98 | -22.7% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $336.83 | -27.0% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $340 | $339.42 | -14.4% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Mark Hughes | $395 | $337.48 | -0.6% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $329 | $337.48 | -17.2% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $295 | $303.9 | -25.7% | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $322 | $306.46 | -18.9% | May 26, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $314 | $305.76 | -21.0% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Robert Cox | $304 | $283.19 | -23.5% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $317 | $284.98 | -20.2% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $317 | $290.64 | -20.2% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $313 | $284.97 | -21.2% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $264 | $255.99 | -33.5% | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $269 | $274.54 | -32.3% | May 19, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $310 | $241.51 | -22.0% | Jan 24, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $270 | $259.7 | -32.0% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| JMP Securities | Meyer Shields | $273 | $259.7 | -31.3% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | Harry Fong | $300 | $265.45 | -24.5% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $256 | $265.45 | -35.6% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Cave Montazeri | $277 | $264.82 | -30.3% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mark Dwelle | $273 | $264.82 | -31.3% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $286 | $231.42 | -28.0% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $207 | $203.48 | -47.9% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $196 | $203.48 | -50.7% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| CFRA | Cathy Seifert | $225 | $203.48 | -43.4% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $236 | $203.48 | -40.6% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $210 | $203.48 | -47.1% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $240 | $203.48 | -39.6% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jimmy Bhullar | $242 | $220.6 | -39.1% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Stephen Tusa | $95 | $213.07 | -76.1% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mark Dwelle | $225 | $206.58 | -43.4% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $202 | $206.58 | -49.1% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| CFRA | Cathy Seifert | $235 | $205.25 | -40.8% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $214 | $206.06 | -46.1% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $225 | $223.12 | -43.4% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $185 | $159.68 | -53.4% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Mark Dwelle | $165 | $156.83 | -58.5% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Charles Lederer | $156 | $163.15 | -60.7% | Jun 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $184 | $176.88 | -53.7% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Mark Dwelle | $190 | $184.86 | -52.2% | Apr 9, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Andrew Kligerman | $178 | $166.82 | -55.2% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $176 | $161.48 | -55.7% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $152 | $156.96 | -61.7% | Oct 20, 2021 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $158 | $154.52 | -60.2% | Oct 11, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TRV the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+9.2%
Event window
SPY move
-1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+10.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.7%
Up to 20 sessions
TRVSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q2 2026 marked a notable acceleration from Q1. The combined ratio improved from 88.6% to 83.6%, while core ROE jumped from 19.7% to 24.9%. Core income rose from $1.7 billion to $2.2 billion. The company replaced an expiring CAT bond with a larger $750 million bond, slightly decreasing retention. New AI initiatives moved from development into deployment, including straight-through claims processing and the Travis digital platform. Record new business of $805 million in Business Insurance represented an 8% year-over-year increase. The Canada divestiture, completed in Q1, no longer distorted year-over-year premium comparisons.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its guidance stance, consistent with the prior quarter. No upward revision to full-year targets was announced despite the outsized beat, suggesting management is preserving flexibility and not assuming the favorable reserve development or low catastrophe losses will repeat at the same magnitude.
Key takeaways
- Core income of $2.2 billion with a 24.9% core ROE, well above the mid-teens target.
- Combined ratio improved to 83.6% from 88.6% in Q1, with strong performance across all three segments.
- EPS of $10.04 beat the $5.41 consensus by 85.6%; revenue of $11.53 billion topped the $11.26 billion estimate.
- Over $1.5 billion returned to shareholders, continuing aggressive buybacks and dividend growth.
- AI initiatives -- straight-through claims processing and the Travis digital quoting platform -- are beginning to improve loss ratios and operational efficiency.
- Record new business of $805 million in Business Insurance, up 8% year over year.
Management priorities
- Roll out Innovation 2.0, expanding AI and automation across claims and underwriting.
- Invest over $1.5 billion annually in technology, data analytics, and digital platforms.
- Grow middle-market and surety business, especially data-center projects.
- Continue disciplined share repurchases and dividend growth.
- Maintain a strong balance sheet to fund organic and potential inorganic growth.
Related earnings events
Financial ServicesAXP · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026AXP Q2 2026: Platinum Card Drives 10% Revenue Growth, Full-Year Guidance RaisedBX · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Blackstone Beats on AI-Driven Inflows, AUM Hits Record $1.35 TrillionMCO · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Moody's Q2: Revenue Up 15%, EPS Beat of 10%, Guidance Raised as AI Data-Center Financing Surges
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-17T16:03:20.825296+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-29T01:23:15.868211+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T08:56:01.906879+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T08:56:01.904016+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.