Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold37 ratings
Bullish821.6%
Neutral2362.2%
Bearish616.2%
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. · TROW · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
T. Rowe Price Holds Guidance as Product Mix Shifts
The call supports a cautiously optimistic long-term case for T. Rowe Price's product and distribution strategy, but not a clean growth conclusion: AUM and gross sales benefited from market performance while net outflows, fee compression and weaker equity flows remain unresolved.
Reported Before market openNASDAQFinancial Services
$22.24B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.44
Consensus $2.46
EPS surprise
-0.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.93B
Consensus $1.93B
Revenue surprise
+0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-5.5%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-5.1%
Up to 20 sessions
TROWSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TROW FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TROW fall 5.5% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in TROW's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TROW after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the company reported AUM of $1.78 trillion despite significant net outflows, maintained guidance and provided a clearer set of 2026 initiatives spanning active ETFs, a crypto ETF, international retirement solutions, tokenization and AI. The core tension remains the same: new products and partnerships are advancing while flows and fee mix pressure the legacy business.
Guidance delta
Management maintained guidance; 2026 expense growth was described as a modest 3–6% range.
Key takeaways
- AUM reached $1.78 trillion despite significant net outflows, supported by market returns and higher gross sales.
- Fixed income and alternatives outperformed peers, while equity and mutual-fund outflows remained a pressure point.
- Active ETFs, a planned 2026 crypto ETF, retirement solutions and distribution partnerships are the main strategic growth initiatives.
- The mix is shifting toward lower-priced vehicles, creating effective fee-rate pressure.
Management priorities
- Expand active ETFs and pursue the planned 2026 active crypto ETF.
- Develop retirement and wealth distribution through Goldman Sachs, First Abu Dhabi Bank and international partnerships.
- Advance tokenization, AI integration and private-credit capabilities while maintaining cost control.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$103.81Previous close
$87Low
$119Average
$215High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Sep 9, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 7, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 14, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 11, 2024 |
| UBS | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 10, 2023 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 5, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Oct 5, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 30, 2023 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 10, 2020 |
| CFRA | Buy | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 31, 2020 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 15, 2019 |
| Bernstein | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Nov 13, 2018 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 21, 2018 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 30, 2017 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 26, 2017 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 14, 2016 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Sep 3, 2015 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 3, 2015 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 10, 2014 |
| KeyBanc | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 18, 2014 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 25, 2014 |
| Piper Sandler | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 25, 2014 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Buy | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2013 |
| Edward Jones | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 14, 2012 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 24, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 25, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $103.81. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $104.27 | +6.0% | Sep 25, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $110.97 | +6.0% | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $118 | $113.79 | +13.7% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $112.73 | +5.0% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $111.75 | +15.6% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $116 | $120.39 | +11.7% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $108 | $113.65 | +4.0% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $119.04 | +16.6% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $109 | $109.08 | +5.0% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Glenn Schorr | $111 | $106.29 | +6.9% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Glenn Schorr | $104 | $103.71 | +0.2% | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $89 | $102.88 | -14.3% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $105 | $99.38 | +1.1% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $87 | $95.75 | -16.2% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Glenn Schorr | $96 | $91.97 | -7.5% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $91.97 | -5.6% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $97.27 | +10.8% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $92.94 | +2.1% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| KBW | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $93.43 | +6.0% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $97.02 | -9.4% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $123 | $105.98 | +18.5% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $128 | $105.9 | +23.3% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $104.96 | -1.7% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $102.53 | -2.7% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $126 | $105.34 | +21.4% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $103 | $104.24 | -0.8% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $103.28 | +20.4% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $108.16 | +10.8% | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $90 | $91.43 | -13.3% | May 5, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Chris Allen | $125 | $115.49 | +20.4% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexander Blostein | $113 | $118.39 | +8.9% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Glenn Schorr | $116 | $114.49 | +11.7% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Glenn Schorr | $107 | $112.08 | +3.1% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $113 | $116.26 | +8.9% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Glenn Schorr | $108 | $117.85 | +4.0% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Fotheringham | $115 | $127.77 | +10.8% | Aug 9, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | James Fotheringham | $135 | $114.85 | +30.0% | Jun 13, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $125.28 | +49.3% | May 2, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $122.98 | +54.1% | May 2, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $127.3 | -13.3% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $135.36 | +63.8% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $178 | $143.07 | +71.5% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Bedell | $159 | $143.47 | +53.2% | Feb 20, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jeremy Campbell | $160 | $170.01 | +54.1% | Apr 19, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Christopher Harris | $215 | $167.98 | +107.1% | Apr 14, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TROW the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. operates as a publicly traded entity specializing in investment management. The firm extends its financial expertise to a diverse range of clients, including individual investors, institutional organizations, retirement benefit plans, and financial intermediaries. It is responsible for the establishment and ongoing management of both equity and fixed income mutual funds. The company's investment activities encompass public stock and bond markets worldwide. Employing a bottom-up methodology, the firm integrates both fundamental and quantitative analysis, leveraging insights from both internal research capabilities and external sources for its investment decisions. A core tenet of its investment philosophy is socially responsible investing, with a significant emphasis on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors. Furthermore, T.…
Historical context
All TROW earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1230.3% | +0.3% | Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution |
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T08:21:01.780670+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T08:21:01.777877+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.