Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold5 ratings
Bullish360.0%
Neutral120.0%
Bearish120.0%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation · TPL · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
TPL pairs record Q4 results with water and data-center expansion
TPL’s record Q4 operating performance and water expansion support the growth case, but the next phase depends on converting data-center opportunities and desalination investments into durable cash flow while managing commodity exposure.
Reported After market closeNYSEEnergy
$22.67B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.79
Consensus $1.79
EPS surprise
0.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$211.6M
Consensus $207.5M
Revenue surprise
+2.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+10.4%
Event window
SPY move
-0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+10.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+9.4%
Up to 20 sessions
TPLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TPL FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TPL rise 10.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in TPL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TPL after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management highlighted record Q4 revenue, free cash flow, water activity and royalty production, alongside the Bolt strategic relationship, Orla Phase 2b desalination plans and early-stage rare-earth exploration.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its outlook and cited 2026 capital spending of $65–75 million.
Key takeaways
- Record Q4 revenue and free cash flow supported a strong operating update.
- Water growth reflects legacy contracts, expanded source-water infrastructure and desalination technology.
- The Bolt relationship creates a potential water-supply channel for future West Texas data-center and power projects.
- A debt-free balance sheet and undrawn credit facility provide investment flexibility, while project timing remains uncertain.
Management priorities
- Commission the Orla Phase 2b desalination facility in early 2026
- Expand water infrastructure and develop waste-heat capture and co-location equipment
- Pursue royalty acquisitions and continue discussions with data-center developers
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$325.83Current
$350Low
$494.5Average
$639High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 23, 2026 |
| BWS Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 23, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Sep 29, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 31, 2020 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $325.83. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $639 | $517.36 | +96.1% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Tim Rezvan | $350 | $284.58 | +7.4% | Dec 1, 2025 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTexas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) operates in two core business segments: land and resource management, and water services. Its Land and Resource Management division oversees a vast land portfolio, spanning nearly 880,000 acres. This segment also holds significant oil and gas royalty interests. These include perpetual non-participating royalty interests (NPRIs) covering approximately 85,000 acres (at a 1/128th rate) and about 371,000 acres (at a 1/16th rate). Furthermore, it possesses around 4,000 additional net royalty acres, primarily located in West Texas.…
Historical context
All TPL earningsLatest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T23:26:08.787929+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T23:26:08.784738+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.