Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy18 ratings
Bullish1266.7%
Neutral633.3%
Bearish00.0%
TPG Inc. · TPG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
TPG Beats Q4 Estimates and Raises Its 2026 Outlook
TPG’s reported quarter and raised 2026 outlook support a growth case centered on capital formation, fee-related earnings and product expansion. The thesis depends on execution in fundraising and new launches, while credit quality, software disruption and real-estate fundraising remain material uncertainties.
Reported Before market openNASDAQFinancial Services
$17.89B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.71
Consensus $0.64
EPS surprise
+11.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$628.5M
Consensus $614.4M
Revenue surprise
+2.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-4.5%
Event window
SPY move
-1.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
4.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-19.6%
Up to 20 sessions
TPGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TPG FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TPG fall 4.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in TPG's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TPG after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter’s maintained outlook, management described a stronger 2025 fundraising result and raised its outlook for 2026, including capital formation above $50 billion and a fee-related-earnings margin of about 47%. The quarter’s EPS and revenue also exceeded consensus estimates.
Guidance delta
Raised: management forecast 2026 capital formation above $50 billion and a fee-related-earnings margin of about 47%; the prior quarter’s guidance sentiment was maintained.
Key takeaways
- Management reported record 2025 capital raised and increased fee-related earnings, with a higher 2026 margin target.
- Credit growth includes the Advantage Direct Lending launch; management also pointed to private-wealth inflows and new product development.
- Management framed AI as an opportunity in vertical software and cybersecurity, while identifying disruption risk to horizontal software assets.
- Quarterly EPS and revenue were above consensus estimates; the event-session stock move was negative relative to the benchmark.
Management priorities
- Pursue more than $50 billion in 2026 fundraising across credit, private equity and real estate.
- Scale Advantage Direct Lending and expand T-POP internationally.
- Launch planned credit, real-estate and Asian investment products.
- Build AI-focused investment opportunities and expand capital-markets capabilities.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$48.18Current
$31Low
$61.9Average
$87High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 30, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 30, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 13, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 3, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 13, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 11, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 9, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 19, 2023 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $48.18. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI | Glenn Schorr | $52 | $47.94 | +7.9% | Oct 30, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Brennan Hawken | $52 | $44.84 | +7.9% | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $60 | $44.51 | +24.5% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $44.73 | -2.4% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $48.1 | +28.7% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Brown | $65 | $48.67 | +34.9% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $48.76 | +3.8% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Bart Dziarski | $65 | $48.76 | +34.9% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $64 | $48.98 | +32.8% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $43 | +12.1% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $42.27 | +3.8% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $45.03 | +26.6% | May 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Brown | $59 | $46.23 | +22.5% | May 4, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $45.96 | +14.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $58 | $44.22 | +20.4% | May 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $60 | $46.2 | +24.5% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $46.07 | -2.4% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $42.34 | +22.5% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Brown | $60 | $44.24 | +24.5% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $54.22 | +16.2% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $69 | $53.54 | +43.2% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Budish | $78 | $59.84 | +61.9% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $60.88 | +39.1% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $63.72 | +28.7% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $66.07 | +72.3% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $66.74 | +66.0% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexander Blostein | $80 | $67.65 | +66.0% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Brown | $82 | $67.53 | +70.2% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $56.52 | +30.8% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $58.51 | +61.9% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Etienne Ricard | $73 | $67.67 | +51.5% | Dec 19, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Etinenne Ricard | $60 | $60.88 | +24.5% | Nov 5, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexander Blostein | $63 | $58.44 | +30.8% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexander Blostein | $60 | $53.95 | +24.5% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Cyprys | $52 | $44.1 | +7.9% | May 10, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $87 | $29.55 | +80.6% | Aug 1, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $32.46 | -33.6% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $35.84 | -17.0% | Nov 17, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $39.01 | +1.7% | Nov 15, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $38.52 | -0.4% | Nov 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $40.35 | -37.7% | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $32.87 | -41.9% | Aug 15, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $32.56 | -23.2% | Aug 10, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $26.46 | -44.0% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $24.42 | -46.0% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $25.4 | -35.7% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $25.92 | -12.8% | May 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $28.26 | -29.4% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $28.23 | -37.7% | Apr 19, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTPG Inc. operates globally as a specialized manager of alternative investments. The firm delivers a suite of services, including investment management for diverse pooled vehicles such as unconsolidated funds and collateralized loan obligations. Additionally, TPG provides comprehensive oversight and strategic advisory services to its portfolio companies, encompassing capital structuring, facilitating debt and equity arrangements, and general consultation. It also assists with underwriting and placing securities. TPG allocates capital across various asset classes, with significant investments in private equity funds, real estate funds, credit funds, and funds of hedge funds. Established in 1992, TPG Inc. maintains its headquarters in Fort Worth, Texas, and functions as a subsidiary of TPG GP A, LLC.
Historical context
All TPG earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.8% | +6.8% | Cboe posts strong Q3 as options growth and new products advance |
| NWG NatWest Group plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.0% | -9.0% | NatWest maintains guidance as Q3 growth and capital remain strong |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.1% | +5.3% | Erie pairs resilient demand initiatives with thin underwriting margins |
| COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1189.2% | -10.6% | Coinbase offsets lower spot trading with prediction markets and AI agents |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- SNYFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+30.8% EPS+2.8% move
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- PINSFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-5.4% EPS-2.8% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-02T21:40:46.470486+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-02T21:40:46.467560+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.