Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy37 ratings
Bullish1951.4%
Neutral1848.6%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
TransDigm Group Incorporated · TDG · FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026
TransDigm closes FY2026 with broad growth and sets a higher-investment FY2027 outlook
TransDigm’s reported growth across commercial aftermarket, commercial OEM and defense, together with its FY2027 outlook, supports a constructive operating trajectory. The main counterweights are expected acquisition-related margin dilution, integration execution, supply constraints and regulatory uncertainty; sustained demand and returns on stepped-up investment remain to be tested.
Why did TDG rise 0.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q4?
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Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$67.74B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$12.44
Consensus $12.21
EPS surprise
+1.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.99B
Consensus $2.95B
Revenue surprise
+1.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+0.5%
Event window
SPY move
-0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
TDGSPY benchmark
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Why did TDG rise 0.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q4?What changed in TDG's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TDG after FY2026 Q4 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management described double-digit growth across all three end markets in FY2026 and introduced FY2027 expectations for revenue and EBITDA growth. It also outlined a higher FY2027 capital-spending plan focused on new business and productivity, including automation and AI initiatives.
Guidance delta
Management’s FY2027 outlook projects revenue of $12.05 billion, up about 14%, and EBITDA of $6.27 billion, up about 13%, with an expected 52% margin. FY2027 capex is forecast at $380 million. The outlook anticipates margin dilution from recent acquisitions.
Key takeaways
- The supplied analysis reports double-digit growth across commercial aftermarket, commercial OEM and defense in FY2026; Q4 EBITDA margin was reported at 53%.
- FY2027 outlook calls for revenue growth of about 14% and EBITDA growth of about 13%, with a 52% margin expectation.
- Management said FY2027 capex is planned at $380 million, emphasizing automation, AI-enabled productivity and new business initiatives.
- Management cited aircraft production, aftermarket maintenance demand and defense backlog as growth drivers; acquisitions remain part of the strategy.
Management priorities
- Pursue disciplined aerospace and defense M&A, with emphasis on mid-size businesses.
- Invest in automation, AI and productivity, and expand new-business initiatives.
- Build PMA and test-and-measurement product lines through recent acquisitions.
- Monitor right-to-repair developments and manage acquisition integration.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$1,240.36Current
$660Low
$1,367.83Average
$1,871High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 19, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2026 | |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 2, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 29, 2024 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 8, 2024 |
| Alembic Global | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Nov 16, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 9, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 22, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Vertical Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 6, 2022 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 12, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 4, 2019 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 9, 2019 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 28, 2018 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Feb 8, 2018 |
| Wellington Shields | Hold | Gradually Accumulate | Downgrade | Nov 15, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Aug 21, 2015 |
| CRT Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 24, 2015 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 13, 2014 |
| Great Lakes | Hold | Gradually Accumulate | Downgrade | Jan 13, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 8, 2013 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 27, 2012 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 9, 2012 |
| Auriga | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 30, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $1,240.36. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,300 | $1,134.24 | +4.8% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,200 | $1,114.25 | -3.3% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $1,745 | $1,107.99 | +40.7% | Oct 12, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,400 | $1,116.2 | +12.9% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Melius Research | Analyst unavailable | $1,331 | $1,140.32 | +7.3% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | David Strauss | $1,450 | $1,225.25 | +16.9% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $1,625 | $1,225.25 | +31.0% | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,400 | $1,256.65 | +12.9% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,695 | $1,244.39 | +36.7% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Jonathan Siegmann | $1,405 | $1,275.05 | +13.3% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,345 | $1,215.34 | +8.4% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $1,575 | $1,215.08 | +27.0% | May 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,645 | $1,240.1 | +32.6% | May 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ken Herbert | $1,350 | $1,191.33 | +8.8% | May 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,680 | $1,191.33 | +35.4% | May 6, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,525 | $1,191.33 | +22.9% | May 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $1,565 | $1,285.53 | +26.2% | Feb 8, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $1,400 | $1,251.75 | +12.9% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,550 | $1,301.93 | +25.0% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,800 | $1,301.93 | +45.1% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $1,400 | $1,301.93 | +12.9% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Noah Poponak | $1,871 | $1,450 | +50.8% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $1,500 | $1,428.44 | +20.9% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Gavin Parsons | $1,804 | $1,428.39 | +45.4% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $1,697 | $1,377.42 | +36.8% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,660 | $1,330.3 | +33.8% | Nov 14, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $1,647 | $1,270.08 | +32.8% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $1,600 | $1,306.32 | +29.0% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $1,450 | $1,285.85 | +16.9% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $1,370 | $1,284.38 | +10.5% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Goldie | $1,420 | $1,289.29 | +14.5% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $1,490 | $1,275.96 | +20.1% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $1,600 | $1,574.85 | +29.0% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $1,545 | $1,524.23 | +24.6% | Jul 8, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Jonathan Siegmann | $1,710 | $1,470.68 | +37.9% | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $1,553 | $1,391.86 | +25.2% | May 7, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $1,300 | $1,399.57 | +4.8% | Apr 2, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $1,580 | $1,394.11 | +27.4% | Mar 25, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $1,348 | $1,254.11 | +8.7% | Jan 2, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $1,575 | $1,237.37 | +27.0% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ken Herbert | $1,500 | $1,321.83 | +20.9% | Jun 24, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $1,524 | $1,339.48 | +22.9% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bert Subin | $1,325 | $1,325.75 | +6.8% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Leshock | $1,440 | $1,338 | +16.1% | May 28, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $793 | $742.5 | -36.1% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $765 | $611.3 | -38.3% | Dec 12, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $660 | $636.54 | -46.8% | Nov 28, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $735 | $640.02 | -40.7% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ronald Epstein | $790 | $625.25 | -36.3% | Nov 23, 2021 |
| Barclays | David E. Strauss | $710 | $629.63 | -42.8% | Nov 22, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Gautam Khanna | $695 | $660.61 | -44.0% | Nov 18, 2021 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $708 | $658.93 | -42.9% | Nov 17, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Noah Poponak | $732 | $599.56 | -41.0% | Sep 10, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Robert Spingarn | $712 | $629.11 | -42.6% | Aug 6, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $718 | $578.24 | -42.1% | May 12, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTransDigm Group Incorporated is a global aerospace enterprise specializing in the development, manufacturing, and distribution of a wide array of aircraft components. Operating across the United States and internationally, its business is structured around three distinct divisions. The Power & Control division focuses on critical systems, providing solutions such as electromechanical actuators and control mechanisms, engine ignition and related technologies, precision pumps and valves, power regulation equipment, specialized electric motors and generators, energy storage units, data communication and power management systems, diverse sensors, switching gear, and material handling equipment including hoists and cargo systems. This segment caters to a broad clientele, including engine and power system manufacturers, airlines, independent maintenance providers, governmental defense agencies, and aircraft repair facilities. The Airframe segment delivers structural and interior components.…
Historical context
All TDG earningsIndustrials peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMBJ Embraer S.A. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -49.4% | +7.0% | Embraer’s record Q3 and raised outlook meet a sharp EPS miss |
| RKLB Rocket Lab USA, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -79.5% | -1.0% | Rocket Lab Q3: Revenue Beat, EPS Loss Wider Than Expected |
| CNH CNH Industrial N.V. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +67.1% | +10.9% | CNH sharpens agriculture focus as margins improve and construction JV advances |
| FERG Ferguson Enterprises Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.6% | +11.2% | Ferguson raises FY2026 outlook as industrial and HVAC sales accelerate |
| RBA RB Global, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.0% | +2.4% | RB Global raises FY2026 outlook as Q3 GTV and adjusted EBITDA grow |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- VGFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026+92.7% EPS+1.7% move
- ONONFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026+39.9% EPS-7.5% move
- CRWVFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 20260.0% EPS-0.5% move
- OXYFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026+30.8% EPS+2.0% move
- MGREFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026+8.1% EPS+0.6% move
- MGRDFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026+8.1% EPS+1.4% move
Missed on EPS
- EMBJFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026-49.4% EPS+7.0% move
- VODFY2027 Q2 · November 10, 2026-72.8% EPS-1.2% move
- SEFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026-5.1% EPS-1.5% move
- BAPFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026-2.6% EPS+3.3% move
- JBSFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026-28.6% EPS-5.5% move
- CIBFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026-10.1% EPS-4.0% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-10T22:17:03.472927+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-11T01:23:13.633975+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-11T11:10:45.576032+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-11T11:10:45.573283+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-11. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.