Seagate Technology Holdings plc · STX · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2024

Seagate: High-Capacity HDD Demand Drives Strong Q1

The current analysis supports a constructive near-term operating thesis: strong cloud and high-capacity HDD demand, favorable mix, and HAMR progress are supporting growth and margins. The thesis remains dependent on qualification timing, sustained mix benefits, capacity flexibility, and demand visibility.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $143.37B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.58 Consensus $1.49
EPS surprise +6.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.17B Consensus $2.13B
Revenue surprise +1.8% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -8.1% Event window
SPY move -0.9% Same window
Abnormal move -7.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 4.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -5.3% Up to 20 sessions
STXSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, Seagate reported stronger demand and profitability, with mass-capacity HDDs at 93% of exabytes shipped and gross margin at 33.3%. HAMR qualification advanced to customer-held drives, while market-share, utilization, and inventory concerns remain.

Guidance delta

Management maintained guidance; December-quarter guidance points to approximately 6% sequential revenue growth and higher operating margins.

Key takeaways

  • High-capacity HDD demand and favorable pricing drove strong fiscal Q1 performance.
  • Mass-capacity HDDs reached 93% of total HDD exabytes shipped, supporting mix and margin.
  • Non-GAAP gross margin reached 33.3%, described as the highest in over a decade.
  • Mozaic HAMR qualification drives are with customers, with volume shipments expected by mid-2025.
  • Build-to-order provides demand visibility, while factory utilization limits near-term flexibility.

Management priorities

  • Ramp 24–28 TB PMR drives in Q4.
  • Expand Mozaic adoption across cloud, enterprise, and VIA customers.
  • Qualify and begin volume shipments of 4 TB-plus HAMR drives by mid-2025.
  • Maintain low-end capex of 4–6% of revenue while adding transition capacity.
  • Continue dividend growth and consider share repurchases after debt reduction.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
STX REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $2B Q2 '24 actual $2B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $2B Q3 '24 actual $2B, miss Q4 '24 estimate $2B Q4 '24 actual $2B, beat Q1 '25 estimate $2B Q1 '25 actual $2B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2B Q4 '25 actual $2B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $3B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3B Q2 '26 actual $3B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3B Q3 '26 actual $3B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $3B Q4 '26 actual $4B, beat Q1 '27 estimate $4B Q2 '27 estimate $5B Q3 '27 estimate $5B Q4 '27 estimate $5B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2956.9%
Neutral1835.3%
Bearish47.8%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$630.49Current
$65Low
$516.47Average
$1,600High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 21, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 20, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 16, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 30, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainJul 30, 2026
Show 47 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $630.49. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyErik Woodring$1,200$660.81 +90.3%Oct 20, 2026
Wells FargoAaron Rakers$865$690.81 +37.2%Oct 16, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$900$883.66 +42.7%Jul 30, 2026
BarclaysTom O'Malley$1,250$761.03 +98.3%Jul 29, 2026
WedbushAnalyst unavailable$1,000$760.45 +58.6%Jul 29, 2026
See 124 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions. The company's extensive product portfolio encompasses a wide array of mass capacity storage offerings. These include enterprise-grade nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), solid-state drives (SSDs), and complete enterprise nearline systems, alongside specialized HDDs for video and imaging, and network-attached storage (NAS) drives. Beyond these, Seagate also supports legacy systems with Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-25T08:40:43.758323+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-25T08:40:43.755534+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.