Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy26 ratings
Bullish1453.9%
Neutral1142.3%
Bearish13.8%
Steel Dynamics, Inc. · STLD · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Steel Dynamics Posts Record Q2 as Aluminum Ramp Accelerates
Steel Dynamics delivered its second consecutive quarter of record steel shipments in Q2 2026, with adjusted EBITDA of $921 million and net income of $534 million, beating both EPS and revenue estimates. The aluminum flat-roll mill is progressing from its Q1 quality challenges toward a 90% utilization target by year-end, with $650-$700 million in normalized EBITDA potential. Steel fabrication backlog is up 45% year-over-year, with pricing expected to improve over the next 6-9 months. Management maintained guidance and capital allocation priorities, including $300-$350 million in H2 2026 capex for growth projects, continued share repurchases, and a growing dividend. Trade protections (Section 232, Section 301) continue to support domestic steel pricing, while a tragic workplace fatality has renewed the company's safety focus.
Reported After market closeNASDAQBasic Materials
$36.39B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationSteel Dynamics, Inc. is a prominent American steel manufacturer and metal recycling enterprise, conducting its operations through three distinct business divisions. The Steel Operations segment is responsible for producing a broad range of steel products, including hot, cold, and coated rolled steel, various structural shapes like beams, channels, and angles, flat and reinforcing bars, and a diverse selection of rail and engineered steel bar products. This segment also provides specialized processing services for both bar products (such as turning, polishing, and heat treating) and specialty items (including cutting, welding, and galvanizing).…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.69
Consensus $4
EPS surprise
+1.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.09B
Consensus $5.56B
Revenue surprise
+9.6%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$252.34Previous close
$112Low
$204.53Average
$300High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 5, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 21, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 27, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Jan 11, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 15, 2021 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 9, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 24, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2017 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 6, 2016 |
| CLSA | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Sep 21, 2016 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2016 |
| Rosenblatt | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 14, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 9, 2016 |
| Dahlman Rose | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 23, 2012 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $252.34. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $259.74 | +18.9% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $260 | $239.1 | +3.0% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $275 | $233.52 | +9.0% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Garchitorena | $272 | $233.52 | +7.8% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $243.69 | +3.8% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $249.91 | +7.0% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $291 | $270.13 | +15.3% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $293 | $275.13 | +16.1% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $231.84 | +7.0% | May 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $207 | $195.3 | -18.0% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $190 | $173.24 | -24.7% | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $172.16 | -23.1% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Philip Gibbs | $190 | $172.74 | -24.7% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $165.43 | -24.7% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $165 | $155.97 | -34.6% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $172 | $156.57 | -31.8% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Phillip Gibbs | $165 | $152.95 | -34.6% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $167 | $153.82 | -33.8% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $153.82 | -28.7% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $158 | $147.62 | -37.4% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $140 | $126.46 | -44.5% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Alexander Hacking | $160 | $129.86 | -36.6% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $130 | $130.18 | -48.5% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lawson Winder | $155 | $129.41 | -38.6% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $127 | $115.12 | -49.7% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lawson Winder | $140 | $115.16 | -44.5% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $145 | $114.28 | -42.5% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $138 | $115.05 | -45.3% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $135 | $127.28 | -46.5% | Jun 18, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Timna Tanners | $112 | $126.55 | -55.6% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $135 | $121.81 | -46.5% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $150 | $133.93 | -40.6% | May 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $120 | $139.97 | -52.4% | Mar 18, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $94.53 | -54.8% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Michael Glick | $117 | $91.49 | -53.6% | Apr 21, 2022 |
Track every rating change on STLD the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+1.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+8.1%
Up to 20 sessions
STLDSPY benchmark
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What changed
Compared to Q1 2026, Steel Dynamics improved across the board. Record steel shipments rose to 3.7 million tons (from 3.6 million in Q1), adjusted EBITDA increased to $921 million (from $700 million), and net income grew to $534 million (from $403 million). The aluminum platform, which posted an operating loss in Q1 due to early quality issues, is now ramping with higher production targets and new product certifications. A $16 million non-cash impairment was recognized related to the relocation of a planned recycled slab center. Management also disclosed a fatal workplace accident involving a new employee, Elijah Jones, emphasizing renewed safety commitments. On the regulatory front, Section 301 investigations targeting countries with forced-labor steel imports were highlighted alongside existing Section 232 tariffs.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its guidance sentiment, consistent with Q1. The aluminum mill utilization target of at least 90% by year-end 2026 was reaffirmed, with the third cold mill expected to commission in Q3 and the fourth in Q4. Capex for H2 2026 was specified at $300-$350 million for growth projects, within the previously communicated full-year framework. Share repurchases and dividend growth remain ongoing priorities.
Key takeaways
- Record steel shipments of 3.7 million tons drove adjusted EBITDA to $921 million and net income to $534 million, beating EPS estimates by 1.7% and revenue estimates by 9.6%.
- Aluminum flat-roll mill is ramping toward ~90% utilization by year-end, with $650-$700 million normalized EBITDA potential as scrap content rises and cold mills come online.
- Steel fabrication order backlog is up 45% year-over-year, with pricing expected to improve over the next 6-9 months.
- $300-$350 million capex planned for H2 2026, supporting continued share repurchases and dividend growth alongside growth-project investment.
- A fatal workplace accident prompted renewed safety focus, and a $16 million non-cash impairment was recognized for a relocated recycled slab center.
Management priorities
- Ramp aluminum mill to at least 90% utilization by year-end 2026 and commission third cold mill in Q3, fourth in Q4.
- Invest $300-$350 million in capex during H2 2026 for growth projects including value-added coated steel lines and automotive certifications.
- Continue share repurchases and maintain a growing dividend.
- Expand metals recycling and increase scrap content in aluminum production to improve margins.
- Reinforce workplace safety following the fatal accident involving employee Elijah Jones.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-21T17:03:48.245620+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-30T01:23:13.872335+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T07:22:41.507330+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T07:22:41.504649+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.