Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy26 ratings
Bullish1453.9%
Neutral1142.3%
Bearish13.8%
Steel Dynamics, Inc. · STLD · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025
Steel Dynamics maintains outlook amid aluminum and fabrication ramp
The quarter supports a constructive but execution-dependent view: management cited resilient domestic demand, onshoring, infrastructure spending, and supportive tariffs, while the aluminum and biocarbon investments create longer-term growth options. The evidence is tempered by below-consensus EPS and revenue, startup losses, production constraints, and trade-policy uncertainty.
Reported After market closeNASDAQBasic Materials
$34.17B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.01
Consensus $2.24
EPS surprise
-10.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.57B
Consensus $4.72B
Revenue surprise
-3.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-1.7%
Event window
SPY move
+0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-3.0%
Up to 20 sessions
STLDSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about STLD FY2025 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did STLD fall 1.7% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in STLD's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for STLD after FY2025 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The company moved further into aluminum with its first commercial-quality flat-rolled shipments, continued biocarbon commissioning, and emphasized an expected fabrication profitability inflection. Metals recycling volumes were strong, but lower scrap prices and an oxygen-related production shortfall weighed on the operating picture.
Guidance delta
Management guidance sentiment was maintained; the analysis highlighted continued confidence in aluminum EBITDA positivity in the second half of 2025.
Key takeaways
- Management described a solid quarter with record safety performance and $533 million of adjusted EBITDA.
- Metals recycling shipments reached a record, while lower ferrous scrap prices pressured margins.
- The company shipped its first commercial-quality aluminum flat-rolled coils on June 16.
- Management cited onshoring, infrastructure spending, and Section 232 tariffs as demand supports.
- The key execution tests are aluminum profitability, Sinton utilization, fabrication improvement, and project spending.
Management priorities
- Ramp aluminum flat-rolled production and pursue product certification by 2027.
- Commission the biocarbon facility and integrate low-carbon fuel into steelmaking.
- Expand value-added fabrication lines and increase API and high-strength grades.
- Invest $400 million in second-half capex for aluminum and biocarbon projects.
- Continue share repurchases and dividend growth while maintaining an investment-grade credit profile.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$238.38Current
$112Low
$206.4Average
$300High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 10, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 5, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 21, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 27, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Jan 11, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 15, 2021 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 9, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 24, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 24, 2017 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 6, 2016 |
| CLSA | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Sep 21, 2016 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2016 |
| Rosenblatt | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 14, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 9, 2016 |
| Dahlman Rose | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 23, 2012 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $238.38. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $257 | $245.35 | +7.8% | Sep 18, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $276 | $263.72 | +15.8% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $259.74 | +25.8% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $260 | $239.1 | +9.1% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $275 | $233.52 | +15.4% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Garchitorena | $272 | $233.52 | +14.1% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $243.69 | +9.9% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $249.91 | +13.3% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $291 | $270.13 | +22.1% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $293 | $275.13 | +22.9% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $231.84 | +13.3% | May 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $207 | $195.3 | -13.2% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $190 | $173.24 | -20.3% | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $172.16 | -18.6% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Philip Gibbs | $190 | $172.74 | -20.3% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $165.43 | -20.3% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $165 | $155.97 | -30.8% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $172 | $156.57 | -27.8% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Phillip Gibbs | $165 | $152.95 | -30.8% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $167 | $153.82 | -29.9% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $153.82 | -24.5% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $158 | $147.62 | -33.7% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $140 | $126.46 | -41.3% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Alexander Hacking | $160 | $129.86 | -32.9% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $130 | $130.18 | -45.5% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lawson Winder | $155 | $129.41 | -35.0% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $127 | $115.12 | -46.7% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lawson Winder | $140 | $115.16 | -41.3% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $145 | $114.28 | -39.2% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $138 | $115.05 | -42.1% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $135 | $127.28 | -43.4% | Jun 18, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Timna Tanners | $112 | $126.55 | -53.0% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $135 | $121.81 | -43.4% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $150 | $133.93 | -37.1% | May 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $120 | $139.97 | -49.7% | Mar 18, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $94.53 | -52.2% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Michael Glick | $117 | $91.49 | -50.9% | Apr 21, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSteel Dynamics, Inc. is a prominent American steel manufacturer and metal recycling enterprise, conducting its operations through three distinct business divisions. The Steel Operations segment is responsible for producing a broad range of steel products, including hot, cold, and coated rolled steel, various structural shapes like beams, channels, and angles, flat and reinforcing bars, and a diverse selection of rail and engineered steel bar products. This segment also provides specialized processing services for both bar products (such as turning, polishing, and heat treating) and specialty items (including cutting, welding, and galvanizing).…
Historical context
All STLD earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPM RPM International Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.5% | +3.2% | RPM posts record quarter, but input costs narrow the outlook |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-10T10:40:44.562800+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-10T10:40:44.559987+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.