Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold15 ratings
Bullish533.4%
Neutral853.3%
Bearish213.3%
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. · SQM · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
SQM Raises Lithium Volume Outlook as Expansion and Cost Risks Persist
The quarter supports a constructive growth case for SQM: higher lithium volumes, firm pricing, and fertilizer and iodine opportunities improved the near-term setup. That case remains dependent on sustained commodity conditions and disciplined execution of large, regulated projects.
Why did SQM rise 4.4% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?
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Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials
$19.86B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.28
Consensus $1.55
EPS surprise
-17.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.76B
Consensus $1.69B
Revenue surprise
+3.9%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+4.4%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+4.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-12.9%
Up to 20 sessions
SQMSPY benchmark
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Why did SQM rise 4.4% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in SQM's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for SQM after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Lithium sales volumes increased 25% year over year and annual volume guidance was raised by approximately 15%. Specialty plant nutrition volumes increased 10%, while management emphasized elevated capex, higher mining taxes, and payments to the Chilean state.
Guidance delta
Management raised annual lithium volume guidance by approximately 15%.
Key takeaways
- Lithium sales volumes rose 25% year over year, and annual lithium volume guidance increased by approximately 15%.
- Specialty plant nutrition volumes rose 10% amid China's potassium nitrate export suspension.
- Growth plans remain capital intensive, with Salar Futuro and Mount Holland projects advancing while taxes and state payments constrain cash flow.
Management priorities
- Expand lithium capacity through Salar de Atacama, Salar Futuro, Mount Holland, and Kwinana.
- Advance environmental and regulatory work for Salar Futuro and Mount Holland.
- Capture demand in specialty fertilizers and iodine while maintaining capacity expansion.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$57.54Current
$35Low
$72.79Average
$104High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Mar 25, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 6, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 21, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 28, 2023 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Mar 31, 2022 |
| Santander | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 3, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 8, 2019 |
| Miller Tabak | Hold | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 2, 2013 |
| Craig-Hallum | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 21, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $57.54. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $66.45 | +56.4% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $104 | $81.96 | +80.7% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $77.36 | +63.4% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $67.16 | +61.6% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Marcio Farid | $82 | $72.95 | +42.5% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $71.94 | +70.3% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $83.42 | +73.8% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $105 | $84.18 | +82.5% | May 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $89.75 | +84.2% | May 5, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $71.86 | -7.9% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $91 | $81.88 | +58.2% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $77.76 | +52.9% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $77.71 | +56.4% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $64.17 | +37.3% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $63.06 | +9.5% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $80 | $58.26 | +39.0% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $62.62 | +33.8% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $46 | $44.44 | -20.1% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Anibal Demichelis | $50 | $43.11 | -13.1% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Jackson | $55 | $37.12 | -4.4% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Demichelis | $55 | $38.64 | -4.4% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Isabella Simonato | $38 | $37.7 | -34.0% | Aug 21, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Marcio Farid | $46.5 | $35.98 | -19.2% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Berenberg Bank | Andres Castanos-Mollor | $35 | $37.73 | -39.2% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Jackson | $65 | $46.52 | +13.0% | Jun 3, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $45 | $49.84 | -21.8% | May 28, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $42 | $49.72 | -27.0% | May 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Demichelis | $62.8 | $47.61 | +9.1% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $115 | $90.07 | +99.9% | Aug 22, 2022 |
Track every rating change on SQM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A., commonly known as SQM, is a major global producer and distributor of a diverse array of chemical and mineral products. Its extensive offerings include specialized plant nutrition solutions, iodine and its various chemical compounds, lithium and its derivatives, potassium chloride and sulfate, and a range of industrial chemicals, alongside other related products and services. Among its key agricultural products are specialty plant nutrients like potassium nitrate, sodium nitrate, and sodium potassium nitrate, as well as customized blends and advanced fertilizers. The company also manufactures iodine and its derivatives, which are widely utilized across medical, pharmaceutical, agricultural, and industrial sectors. These applications encompass crucial ingredients for x-ray contrast agents, polarizing films essential for LCD and LED displays, various antiseptics, biocides, and disinfectants, components for pharmaceutical synthesis, electronic materials, and elements vital for pigments and dyes.…
Historical context
All SQM earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -1.1% | +2.2% | Wheaton Precious Metals posts record Q3 production; guidance unchanged |
| IAG Iamgold Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +16.7% | +4.6% | IAMGOLD keeps FY2026 guidance on track as Côté improvements support outlook |
| APD Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | 0.0% | -2.9% | Air Products closes FY2026 with growth, larger backlog and FY2027 plans |
| ALB Albemarle Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.0% | +3.6% | Albemarle’s Q3 gains reflect firmer lithium pricing and cost discipline |
| MT ArcelorMittal S.A. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +43.7% | -3.3% | ArcelorMittal sees stronger European shipments, with fuller TRQ benefits ahead |
| WMS Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.9% | -14.9% | Advanced Drainage Systems lowers revenue outlook as growth moderates |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- EOGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+8.9% EPS+2.2% move
- PBAFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+13.5% EPS+1.0% move
- FNFFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 20260.0% EPS+6.6% move
- MTDFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+3.6% EPS+4.8% move
- IAGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+16.7% EPS+4.6% move
- GMABFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+55.6% EPS-4.3% move
Missed on EPS
- DKNGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-29.2% EPS-23.4% move
- WPMFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-1.1% EPS+2.2% move
- CPTFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-27.2% EPS-3.1% move
- VMRKFY2026 Q3 · November 4, 2026-425.6% EPS+2.4% move
- NTRAFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-49.3% EPS-15.2% move
- TIGOFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-40.8% EPS+2.6% move
Get the SQM recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-19T11:19:15.357872+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-22T01:50:56.550290+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-22T01:50:56.548509+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.