Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold25 ratings
Bullish936.0%
Neutral1456.0%
Bearish28.0%
Super Micro Computer, Inc. · SMCI · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2025
Supermicro: AI demand is strong, but margins remain the test
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: strong AI and GPU-server demand, DCBBS adoption and expansion into enterprise, IoT and sovereign AI can support growth, while margin recovery and execution determine whether that growth translates into durable earnings improvement.
Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology
$28.26B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.41
Consensus $0.45
EPS surprise
-7.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.76B
Consensus $5.98B
Revenue surprise
-3.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-18.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-19.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-13.0%
Up to 20 sessions
SMCISPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about SMCI FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did SMCI fall 18.3% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in SMCI's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for SMCI after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis shows a stronger growth and guidance profile than the prior quarter: revenue increased 47% year over year, FY26 guidance was raised, and management said capital constraints had been resolved. The focus shifted toward scaling B300/GB300 systems, expanding DCBBS and pursuing higher-margin enterprise, IoT and sovereign AI opportunities, while gross margin remained a key unresolved issue.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was raised; FY26 revenue guidance was at least $33 billion, with Q1 FY26 sales expected at $6–$7 billion.
Key takeaways
- Revenue rose 47% year over year to $22 billion, led by AI and GPU server demand.
- Management highlighted DCBBS as a path to faster deployment and potential margin improvement.
- Capital constraints were described as resolved, supporting production scaling and new product rollouts.
- Enterprise, IoT and sovereign AI projects are targeted as higher-margin growth areas.
- The outlook still depends on GPU availability, execution and margin recovery.
Management priorities
- Scale B300 and GB300 GPU server production.
- Broaden DCBBS adoption during FY26.
- Expand enterprise, IoT and telco market activity.
- Pursue sovereign AI infrastructure contracts.
- Continue strategic AI and telecom partnerships.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$43.69Current
$25Low
$44.67Average
$100High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJS Securities | Market Perform | Market Underperform | Upgrade | May 6, 2026 |
| Northland Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 23, 2026 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Mar 24, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2025 |
| CFRA | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 11, 2025 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 7, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Negative | Negative | Maintain | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 10, 2024 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 25, 2024 |
| Maxim Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 27, 2019 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 18, 2017 |
| Roth Capital | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 5, 2016 |
| Pacific Crest | Equal Weight | Sector Weight | Maintain | Jul 28, 2016 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 19, 2016 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 19, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 15, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 15, 2016 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 28, 2013 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 28, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $43.69. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $37.61 | -3.9% | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Simon Leopold | $48 | $35.78 | +9.9% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $35.68 | -3.9% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Matt Bryson | $40 | $35.82 | -8.4% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $35 | $31.6 | -19.9% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $31.6 | -10.7% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $31.68 | -17.6% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Kevin Cassidy | $45 | $25.5 | +3.0% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $46 | $25.5 | +5.3% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $44 | $46.09 | +0.7% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $36 | $33.52 | -17.6% | May 12, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $31.9 | +3.0% | May 6, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $27.83 | -31.3% | May 6, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $33 | $29.67 | -24.5% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $29.67 | -8.4% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tim Long | $38 | $29.67 | -13.0% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $30.12 | -40.5% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $30.22 | -29.0% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Jim Kelleher | $64 | $42.48 | +46.5% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $43.76 | +44.2% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $43.58 | -22.2% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $51 | $43.86 | +16.7% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| KGI Securities | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $47.4 | +37.3% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $47.92 | +53.4% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Ng | $30 | $47.92 | -31.3% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Simon Leopold | $53 | $47.92 | +21.3% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $40 | $44.79 | -8.4% | May 19, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Nehal Chokshi | $59 | $32.94 | +35.0% | May 7, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $34 | $32.32 | -22.2% | May 6, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $37.05 | +60.2% | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $42.95 | +35.0% | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Barclays | George Wang | $25 | $26.78 | -42.8% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Ng | $28 | $26.78 | -35.9% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $45 | $33.07 | +3.0% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ananda Baruah | $100 | $46.44 | +128.9% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $60 | $43.94 | +37.3% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $45 | $44.91 | +3.0% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Barclays | George Wang | $43.8 | $44.18 | +0.3% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Aaron Rakers | $37.5 | $41.99 | -14.2% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Ng | $67.5 | $49.14 | +54.5% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ruplu Bhattacharya | $70 | $61.69 | +60.2% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Barclays | George Wang | $69.3 | $61.69 | +58.6% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Ng | $80 | $73.83 | +83.1% | May 1, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Aaron Rakers | $96 | $72.55 | +119.7% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ananda Baruah | $150 | $88.28 | +243.3% | Apr 16, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Jim Kelleher | $135 | $115.38 | +209.0% | Mar 6, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Matt Bryson | $25 | $41.62 | -42.8% | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $30 | $27.4 | -31.3% | Aug 10, 2023 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $8.8 | $6.42 | -79.9% | Aug 12, 2022 |
Track every rating change on SMCI the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSuper Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also offers workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories.…
Historical context
All SMCI earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACN Accenture plc | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.5% | +15.8% | Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks |
| JBL Jabil Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.1% | -10.0% | Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks |
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +5.4% | +0.0% | Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead |
| SNX TD Synnex Corp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +20.9% | -9.9% | TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +0.8% | +1.4% | Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +10.3% | -1.7% | Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the SMCI recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T22:40:43.050948+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T22:40:43.047822+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.