Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy21 ratings
Bullish1676.2%
Neutral419.0%
Bearish14.8%
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. · RKLB · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Rocket Lab posts record FY2025 revenue as Neutron shifts to Q4 2026
Rocket Lab's record revenue, backlog, launch activity, and defense demand support a constructive growth case, but the thesis depends on Neutron execution, backlog conversion, and managing capital intensity and mix-driven margin pressure.
Reported After market closeNASDAQIndustrials
$40.79B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-0.09
Consensus $-0.10
EPS surprise
+8.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$179.7M
Consensus $176.8M
Revenue surprise
+1.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-4.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-11.8%
Up to 20 sessions
RKLBSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about RKLB FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did RKLB fall 4.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in RKLB's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for RKLB after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, the central change is the Neutron schedule: the first flight is now targeted for Q4 2026 after a Stage 1 tank rupture, while the company reported a larger backlog, additional vertical-integration acquisitions, and an $816 million SDA Tranche III award.
Guidance delta
Maintained; Q1 2026 guidance calls for continued revenue growth with modest margin pressure from a higher Space Systems mix.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted record FY2025 revenue, a $1.85 billion backlog, and a record 21 missions in 2025.
- The Neutron Stage 1 tank issue was addressed with an automated fiber-placement process; first flight is now targeted for Q4 2026.
- Growth plans center on Electron and HASTE launches, SDA defense work, vertical integration, and space-solar products.
Management priorities
- Deliver the first Neutron launch targeted for Q4 2026 and build subsequent cadence.
- Grow 2026 launch volume by about 20% across Electron and HASTE.
- Expand SDA tracking-layer work, space-solar products, and international opportunities through the Mynaric transaction.
Follow RKLB with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$73.92Current
$4.5Low
$78.85Average
$135High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Sector Weight | Upgrade | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| BTIG | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 8, 2025 |
| Citizens Capital Markets | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 14, 2025 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 18, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Oct 12, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Aug 31, 2022 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 9, 2021 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $73.92. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raymond James | Brian Gesuale | $80 | $61.96 | +8.2% | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $62.54 | +12.3% | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Andres Sheppard | $122 | $78.85 | +65.0% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $80.04 | +48.8% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $63.91 | +44.8% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $83 | $76.2 | +12.3% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Suji Desilva | $130 | $98.01 | +75.9% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Jeff Van Rhee | $120 | $98.1 | +62.3% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Leshock | $135 | $102.39 | +82.6% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $105.05 | +42.0% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $132 | $114.7 | +78.6% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $116.16 | +62.3% | May 12, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $78.58 | +32.6% | May 8, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $87.75 | +42.0% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $82.93 | +35.3% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Andres Sheppard | $85 | $68.37 | +15.0% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Anthony Valentini | $69 | $96.3 | -6.7% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $105 | $90.76 | +42.0% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Needham | Ryan Koontz | $90 | $77.55 | +21.8% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $70.52 | +15.0% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Needham | Ryan Koontz | $63 | $54.98 | -14.8% | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Suji Desilva | $75 | $51.9 | +1.5% | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $75 | $51.9 | +1.5% | Nov 11, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $67 | +1.5% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Arment | $83 | $69.27 | +12.3% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Andres Sheppard | $35 | $42.34 | -52.7% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $31 | $27.95 | -58.1% | Jan 8, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Mike Leschock | $12 | $10.91 | -83.8% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Mike Leschock | $11 | $8.69 | -85.1% | Sep 27, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $6 | $5.65 | -91.9% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Noah Poponak | $4.5 | $4.56 | -93.9% | Jun 11, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $9 | $3.76 | -87.8% | May 7, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Jason Gursky | $6 | $4.66 | -91.9% | Feb 12, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Leshock | $8 | $4.92 | -89.2% | Jan 17, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $10 | $4.3 | -86.5% | Sep 27, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $12 | $5.36 | -83.8% | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $10 | $5.63 | -86.5% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Sam Boughedda | $8 | $5.52 | -89.2% | Aug 31, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $5.99 | -79.7% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $6.94 | -79.7% | Aug 15, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $5 | $4.2 | -93.2% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $5.66 | -81.1% | May 17, 2022 |
Track every rating change on RKLB the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationHeadquartered in Long Beach, California, Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is a prominent aerospace firm established in 2006. This company delivers a comprehensive suite of space-related services and hardware, primarily catering to the space and defense industries. Their operations encompass orbital launch capabilities, advanced spacecraft engineering and construction, production of various spacecraft components, and sophisticated on-orbit management services, including full constellation management. Rocket Lab is known for developing and producing a range of launch vehicles, from small to medium-class rockets.…
Historical context
All RKLB earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTAS Cintas Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.0% | -3.4% | Cintas raises FY2027 guidance as Q1 growth broadens |
| PAYX Paychex, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.5% | -8.8% | Paychex maintains FY27 outlook as PEO and AI momentum strengthen |
| FPS Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.3% | +9.5% | Forgent Power Solutions pairs record results with an aggressive FY27 buildout |
| CPRT Copart, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -8.7% | -2.6% | Copart pairs international growth with ACV investment amid higher costs |
| SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +19.2% | +5.9% | Sunbelt raises FY27 outlook as specialty rental demand accelerates |
| FRO Frontline Plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.0% | +1.0% | Frontline posts a record quarter as tanker rates remain elevated |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the RKLB recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T21:56:06.048117+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T21:56:06.045142+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.